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weatherwiz

June 2019 Discussion

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6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Nothing too extreme just summer warmth. Enjoyable.

I would say it won't be just "Luke-warm."   

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Do you think July will be hot and muggy with morning fog/clouds allowing the sun to poke through for 2 hours midday before the monsoon rains arrive in the afternoon?

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Do you think July will be hot and muggy with morning fog/clouds allowing the sun to poke through for 2 hours midday before the monsoon rains arrive in the afternoon?

I hope not. July will be July. I don't think it's super hot and humid, but don't really see BN either. Maybe slightly AN to modestly AN. Climo argues for days in the 90s too. 

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I hope not. July will be July. I don't think it's super hot and humid, but don't really see BN either. Maybe slightly AN to modestly AN. Climo argues for days in the 90s too. 

Great way to put it. In terms of temperatures and I guess humidity it won't be anything special...or anything unusual for July. We'll probably have our crappy days where we get a stalled out front or warm front lifting nearby and it's cloudy with downpours but muggy. The days...like we will have today will feature temps in the mid-to-upper 80's with the typical torch spots poking a 90. Maybe we get a few days where temps push in the 90-92 range but I don't really see much for anything hotter than that. 

It just would be nice if we could get convectively active. 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Lol with these posts. Read the long range guys posts and forecasts. A super hot and humid next 2-3 months are coming. They back it up with the why. 

I don't see that. 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Lol with these posts. Read the long range guys posts and forecasts. A super hot and humid next 2-3 months are coming. They back it up with the why. 

As long as we continue to see below-average heights north (and there are no signs of this eroding) we are not going to see high heat...or at least anything prolonged (a day or two here and there perhaps) but as long as we have these below-average heights north and ridging across the south the jet is going to be unseasonably strong and more zonal making it difficult to get the heights into our area that we need for big heat. 

 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I don't see that. 

We’ll just have to see how things play out. I just think some of these guys here thinking normal temps and no humidity are either joking or fooling themselves 

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

As long as we continue to see below-average heights north (and there are no signs of this eroding) we are not going to see high heat...or at least anything prolonged (a day or two here and there perhaps) but as long as we have these below-average heights north and ridging across the south the jet is going to be unseasonably strong and more zonal making it difficult to get the heights into our area that we need for big heat. 

 

There is no more below avg heights . They’re gone next week. See EPS

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

We’ll just have to see how things play out. I just think some of these guys here thinking normal temps and no humidity are either joking or fooling themselves 

I don't think anyone is saying no humidity (though that term is quite subjective so it's better to use values)...we'll certainly see dews ranging 60-70 and then there will be times some areas sneak into the lower 70's...but we aren't seeing prolonged periods where the dews are 70+ like last summer. 

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We’ll just have to see how things play out. I just think some of these guys here thinking normal temps and no humidity are either joking or fooling themselves 

No one is saying this. No one. 

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don't see that. 

I read the long range people who live in New England,  they certainly aren't calling for plus 3 plus 4 in New England but hey congrats to the MA Lrangers its been AN all spring. 

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Not every summer has to be wire to wire heat and humidity. I think we are sort of on the edge in SNE, and especially NNE. We'll see how it shakes out. The ULL to our northeast seems to go away.

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There is no more below avg heights . They’re gone next week. See EPS

The models have struggled big time in the medium range...but yeah, taken at face value they do go away, however, if we're talking face value the 588 height contour still remains just off to our south...tough to get big heat in where with that south...and given the flow aloft if they get a ton of convection out west cloud debris could be a factor at times. 

This is a much different configuration then what we saw last summer. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Not every summer has to be wire to wire heat and humidity. I think we are sort of on the edge in SNE, and especially NNE. We'll see how it shakes out. The ULL to our northeast seems to go away.

Like you said July and August will be July and August, hotter and muggier at times with occasional breaks. Sounds like summer feels like summer acts like summer.  Hopefully those in interior CT get to a neighbors pool local lake or drive to the beach to enjoy it all. We all know deep summer is best enjoyed by the water when its hot.  

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29 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

He’s been drinking the Cranky juice heavily. Never good for one’s mental health.

stony-creek-big-cranky-dipa-can.jpg

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This weekend's stuff is crap. 

Looks like cold front comes through too early Saturday to really maximize heating potential and while the energy is quite vigorous Sunday lots of limiting factors which will yield any activity likely more isolated in nature. Maybe a little more concentrated where orographic lifting may play a role?

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Half of a Cranky can and the HH goggles come on.

half a can of that and Kevin is getting stomach acid on will's brakes again 

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Saturday and even Sunday look decent for convection. The guidance is all over WRT timing, but it looks favorable.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Saturday and even Sunday look decent for convection. The guidance is all over WRT timing, but it looks favorable.

Yeah you and JB all over the analogs 

 

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