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Monday, May 20, 2019 Convective Potential


weatherwiz
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Nothing too crazy on Monday. I don't think we'll see widespread t'storms (maybe moreso in NNE). Main s/w tracking north of the border will limit overall forcing, but the strong dynamics will help compensate some and that will lead to the scattered development. Weak mid-level lapse rates will hurt overall instability, but we should get MLCAPE values in the 1000-1500 J/KG range, so with the degree of dynamics we'll see some localized strong-to-severe t'storms. There are some signs of directional shear in the lowest 5,000 feet so that could be a bit intriguing if any storm can utilize that. I would wager it's a similar scenario to NY/PA today. 

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I wonder if @OceanStWx will pop around today. Looks a little interesting in south-central ME later on perhaps. Closer to the strongest forcing and some nice backing of the winds 

I'm becoming less and less excited about today. The timing just doesn't look as favorable as it did yesterday. Shortwave shoots through faster, so we don't have as much time to recover.

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2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I'm becoming less and less excited about today. The timing just doesn't look as favorable as it did yesterday. Shortwave shoots through faster, so we don't have as much time to recover.

What's sort of been striking to me is how the NAM/NAM NEST have been overshooting dewpoints (which is not really anything new) yet haven't been gung-ho with convection. 

I was busy all weekend (went to a beer festival at Two Roads Saturday...wow and walked yesterday) so I never really looked at this potential since I did Friday...from what I heard on Twitter today sounded like an outbreak lol 

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9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

What's sort of been striking to me is how the NAM/NAM NEST have been overshooting dewpoints (which is not really anything new) yet haven't been gung-ho with convection. 

I was busy all weekend (went to a beer festival at Two Roads Saturday...wow and walked yesterday) so I never really looked at this potential since I did Friday...from what I heard on Twitter today sounded like an outbreak lol 

It had really good potential actually, even just 24 hours ago, but the trend has not been kind.

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

It had really good potential actually, even just 24 hours ago, but the trend has not been kind.

well it's good to know then it wasn't getting played up by the typical Twitter crowd. I was trying to look from my phone Saturday, but Cod was having issues. I've just been envisioning scattered t'storms (now more widely scattered) with a few localized stronger ones. 

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Just now, OceanStWx said:

I mean obviously today is going to be serious across the southern Plains too. Great day to be glued to the radar.

It's quite a scary situation. Not just b/c of the high probability of strong-to-violent tornadoes but you have chaster congestion and huge signal for significant flooding. 

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

It's quite a scary situation. Not just b/c of the high probability of strong-to-violent tornadoes but you have chaster congestion and huge signal for significant flooding. 

It is possible that flash flooding is the greatest threat, because it could include OKX, TUL, ICT. 

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7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

It is possible that flash flooding is the greatest threat, because it could include OKX, TUL, ICT. 

That's a very real possibility. The population density which is in the highest risk areas for tornadoes and flooding is quite expansive. I just hope chaster congestion today doesn't yield catastrophic results. There are many who hold this concern. 

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3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

That's a very real possibility. The population density which is in the highest risk areas for tornadoes and flooding is quite expansive. I just hope chaster congestion today doesn't yield catastrophic results. There are many who hold this concern. 

Honestly it would be entirely unsurprising if there was an accident involving chasers today.

It may also be the first time a high risk convective outlook and excessive rain outlook have overlapped.

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2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Honestly it would be entirely unsurprising if there was an accident involving chasers today.

It may also be the first time a high risk convective outlook and excessive rain outlook have overlapped.

Without having a full understanding of the algorithm behind the excessive rainfall outlook (I understand it involves likelihood of flash flood guidance being reached so perhaps it takes into account hourly rainfall rates?) I would have thought though the flooding situation would have a greater potential just north of the area...like into KS and MO. Seems to me like across the TX Panhandle/OK we see fast moving supercells and then the transition to an MCS happens farther north...plus you have warm front enhanced precipitation. Although (not sure if this is a consideration) with the hail that should happen today that could vastly escalate flooding potential 

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13 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Without having a full understanding of the algorithm behind the excessive rainfall outlook (I understand it involves likelihood of flash flood guidance being reached so perhaps it takes into account hourly rainfall rates?) I would have thought though the flooding situation would have a greater potential just north of the area...like into KS and MO. Seems to me like across the TX Panhandle/OK we see fast moving supercells and then the transition to an MCS happens farther north...plus you have warm front enhanced precipitation. Although (not sure if this is a consideration) with the hail that should happen today that could vastly escalate flooding potential 

Think of it as analogous to an SPC forecaster, someone at SPC uses all available guidance (including flash flood guidance and QPF) to draw those outlooks. 

There will likely be a narrow zone that sees training storms along the warm front with a non-zero tornado threat. But it's too early to be that specific, hence the broad overlap in OK.

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11 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Think of it as analogous to an SPC forecaster, someone at SPC uses all available guidance (including flash flood guidance and QPF) to draw those outlooks. 

There will likely be a narrow zone that sees training storms along the warm front with a non-zero tornado threat. But it's too early to be that specific, hence the broad overlap in OK.

I see...that makes much more sense to me now. 

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4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Jesus...this is about as scary as a sounding can get. I don't think I've ever seen a supercell parameter that high. Looks at those helicity values...especially effective inflow and the storm motion vectors. 

 

2019052012_NAM_012_35.26,-97.52_severe_ml.png

Why the hell did they build a city there

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