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Indystorm

May 8 & 9 Possible severe weather

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SPC is thinking eastern IA and northern IL could be somewhat interesting on Wednesday...though less so on Thursday than originally thought for IL and IN.

 

..Mid-MO and Mid-MS Valley Vicinity...

   The Marginal and Slight risk have been adjusted northward across the
   region.  While cloud cover across the area may limit heating,
   especially across MO and IA, sufficient moisture, with dewpoints in
   the low to mid 60s will be in place and weak destabilization is
   expected. Some of the weakness of the thermodynamic environment will
   be compensated by strong deep layer shear as the presence of a
   surface low and the cold front. This should foster semi-organized
   clusters and line segment across the mid-MO Valley with a threat
   mainly for damaging wind and hail. Further east, stronger heating is
   possible toward eastern IA and northern IL. At least a conditional
   threat for semi-discrete convection capable of damaging wind and
   possibly a tornado or two will exist across this area where SRH is
   maximized by backed low level flow near the warm front.
 

 

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Yeah nice little setup for parts of Iowa into north IL.  Forecast hodos look great, especially close to the warm front.  As per usual the ceiling of this event is conditional.  If we could somehow muster enough instability there actually would be some strong tornado potential, so we'll have to see how well we can destabalize.  Good chance the DVN office is quite busy tomorrow evening.  I have to work all day per usual, but I'll def be out after 5pm.

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DVN's AFD thinking from Tues. p.m.

More discrete cells along the southeast flow boundary and triple
point as inversion mixes out, may pose a tornado threat, while
others more damaging wind if sfc dpts can climb into at least the
lower 60s. Lowered LCL`s more favorable as well for mix down
potentail by late afternoon. Large hail a secondary concern with
saturation and will have to be from a rotating storm. Thus agree
with SPC`s northward adjustment of the slight risk for tomorrow,
although some uncertainty still exits on warm sector potential and
morning convective debris lingering into the afternoon.  PWATs will
be even high over 1.5 inches, and high shear storms will ring out
heavy rainfall rates at over an inch an hour. Thus localized flash
flooding may be something to keep in mind besides the severe
weather, especially areas that get hit several times from Tue night
through Wed evening. Many other products already touch upon the
impact this additional rain will do to rivers and streams. All in
all, several areas of 1-2+ inches of new rainfall by 00z Thu from
tonight on into Wed still look on track. High temps challenging for
Wed to say the least, with mid 50s in the far northwest, to the mid
70s possible in the southeast depending on warm sector migration
path.  ..12..

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The new day1 is basically a copy and paste of the previous day2.  Probably the right choice given the conditional setup.  Could see some big changes in subsequent outlooks if we can attain substantial instability.  If festering zombievection COC blocks the setup then marginal/low-end slight would be more than enough.

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Yes, CAMS still show convection in northern IL near sunset  this evening.  But threat is so conditional I do have to wonder.   Doesn't help to have the DVN radar down either. Showers in west central IL are trying to show some convective tendencies. Helicity and shear are very favorable.

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Looked good this morning...good enough for me to head west to Dixon. Warm front/triple point looked like the main play...With decent instability, good moisture and great shear in place, plus much more clearing then expected.

Then when I got out to Dixon and was sitting there for a bit, clouds and rain magically redeveloped and streamed back north across W. IL and further north, killing the threat. :axe:

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Yeah, I got suckered out too. No way in h*** was I going into Lie-owa despite HRRR's insistence, so poked my way down to Forreston, IL and stayed there until about 4:45 (Ironically, about the same place and time that I threw in the towel on Rochelle day in 2015, now unlike then I have a smartphone and thus access to data just about anywhere, instead of having to find open public wi-fi).

Got home shortly after 6, also about the same time I got home that day. However unlike that day, I didn't pull up GR Level 3 to see a flying eagle with debris ball 10 miles from where I'd been less than 90 minutes earlier, and repeatedly slam my head into my desk. B)

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59 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

To add insult to injury we have a svr t storm warning for Putnam and Bureau counties.

Went tornado warned but it looks like it just expired.

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