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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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Mesoscale Discussion 1524
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1238 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

   Areas affected...Portions of northern
   Pennsylvannia...western/central New York

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 191738Z - 191945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...A WW will be possible this afternoon as storms move into
   western NY/PA out of southern Ontario. Marginally organized storms
   will be capable of damaging wind gusts.

   DISCUSSION...Ongoing storms in southern portions of Ontario related
   to an MCV have begun to organize into a linear complex over the past
   hour. Updrafts have continued to deepen with an increase of 50 dBZ
   areal extent noted on the MRMS 5 and 9 km CAPPI. The downstream
   environment continues to destabilize with dewpoints broadly in the
   mid/upper-70s F and temperatures rising into the 80s F. By
   afternoon, temperatures rising into the upper 80s to low 90s F will
   support 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Modest shear profiles (25-30 kts 0-6
   km) will support marginal storm organization. The main threat with
   this activity will be damaging wind gusts as objective mesoanalysis
   depicts 1000-1300 J/kg DCAPE. Downdraft potential will likely
   increase as low-level lapse rates steepen as surface heating
   continues this afternoon. Weak low-level rotation may occur with
   storms interacting with the lake breeze front. Overall tornado
   potential will be low, however. A WW is possible later this
   afternoon.

   ..Wendt/Guyer.. 07/19/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
157 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  East central Niagara County in western New York...
  Orleans County in western New York...
  West central Monroe County in western New York...
  Northern Genesee County in western New York...

* Until 230 PM EDT..

* At 156 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from near Albion to near Lockport, moving east at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and ping pong ball size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail
           damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect
           considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to
           mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

* Locations impacted include...
  Rochester, Greece, Brockport, Medina, Albion, Gates-North Gates,
  Spencerport, Byron, Middleport and Oakfield.

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1 minute ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Looks like BUF is finally going to get a good line of storms! It just had that feeling outside today that the skies were going to let loose.
b5179f424effcf7666c887913b454ac8.gif


.

This is in part due to the EML. Unique situation for us!

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4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

That line will be shredded by the time it gets here. 

Don't think so...

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7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

That line will be shredded by the time it gets here. 

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
244 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019

NYC029-063-191915-
/O.CON.KBUF.SV.W.0050.000000T0000Z-190719T1915Z/
Erie NY-Niagara NY-
244 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN ERIE AND SOUTHWESTERN NIAGARA COUNTIES...

At 243 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Grand Island,
or near Tonawanda, moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile
         homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Buffalo, Cheektowaga, Niagara Falls, West Seneca, North Tonawanda,
Clarence, Kenmore, Depew, Amherst and Tonawanda.

 This includes Interstate 90 between exits 53 and 49.

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1 minute ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:


Big time dud! Lost some of its punch crossing the lake but even under those good returns just a 15 minute downpour...



.

ya i watched the lightning count explode over the ontario peninsula and then fall flat on its face as it crossed the lake. just a little bit of rain here in west falls.

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Not much lightning, and only a 15 minute downpour, but the wind gusts as it came in were impressive.

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bd8b1c4bd0a3761a4f5ba8ac4eb1165b.jpg

There’s something you don’t see often... Set our MAX and MIN temps for the day 45 minutes apart. Heat advisory was a huge bust on today’s forecast.


.

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Upgraded to an excessive heat warning..NWS has us getting to 90° under mostly cloudy skies, we'll see about that lol 

Currently 75° with full overcast..

Mostly cloudy and hot, with a high near 90.

 

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2 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

Upgraded to an excessive heat warning..NWS has us getting to 90° under mostly cloudy skies, we'll see about that lol 

Currently 75° with full overcast..

Mostly cloudy and hot, with a high near 90.

 

This “heatwave” has been a HUGE bust here. Was 82 for a high yesterday with the heat index never getting above 90 and today we hit 85 for a brief moment but the temp has slipped back down to 82 with overcast and a current heat index of 91. Trust me I’m not complaining because this is still plenty hot enough for me but for all the hype surrounding this heatwave on social media and news outlets it’s been nothing but a dud. 

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14 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

This “heatwave” has been a HUGE bust here. Was 82 for a high yesterday with the heat index never getting above 90 and today we hit 85 for a brief moment but the temp has slipped back down to 82 with overcast and a current heat index of 91. Trust me I’m not complaining because this is still plenty hot enough for me but for all the hype surrounding this heatwave on social media and news outlets it’s been nothing but a dud. 

A dud here, but the Midwest the heat has been substantial. Heat Index approaching 120 in many spots. 

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2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

A dud here, but the Midwest the heat has been substantial. Heat Index approaching 120 in many spots. 

Most local stations around here are low to mid 90s with indices up to 115. Mine is 94 and 80dp - 117hx

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2 hours ago, vortmax said:

Most local stations around here are low to mid 90s with indices up to 115. Mine is 94 and 80dp - 117hx

Nice, lake Erie keeps us cool most of the time as the prevalent breeze is W/SW. That allows you guys to warm with a downslope flow. Would you consider this hotter than last years heat wave?

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4 hours ago, WesterlyWx said:

This “heatwave” has been a HUGE bust here. Was 82 for a high yesterday with the heat index never getting above 90 and today we hit 85 for a brief moment but the temp has slipped back down to 82 with overcast and a current heat index of 91. Trust me I’m not complaining because this is still plenty hot enough for me but for all the hype surrounding this heatwave on social media and news outlets it’s been nothing but a dud. 

We’re lucky enough to have a stiff breeze off mid-70s Lake Erie. Not many other places without altitude are getting though this without some suffering.

3D341ECC-4652-496A-A82E-37AEF8227487.jpeg

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2 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Let’s see if these can bust through that lake breeze tonight. Could really go for a good thunderstorm!

c63fd0e00a014c240e81a71e3b5e1422.gif


.

Not a chance. Those things fell apart quicker than the Sabres after a November last year. Until the lake is warmer than the surrounding air you can forget about storms surviving. There's a severe thunderstorm warning here and I have no idea why, as the storms have literally completely fallen apart. Oh well, only about another month or so until the lake temp should start adding instability instead of stability to storms. 

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That line plowed over 1,000 miles today without a single hiccup until it hit Lake Erie...
9b029d3f69a0be0e9d9b39c0eb6cf206.gif
This thunderstorm warning is odd. States the cell is moving northeast along the lake from Angola? That cluster is almost dead and whatever is left is moving west into Hamburg Boston not into the city... There is a very nice lightning show looking south however.


.

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5 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

That line plowed over 1,000 miles today without a single hiccup until it hit Lake Erie...
9b029d3f69a0be0e9d9b39c0eb6cf206.gif
This thunderstorm warning is odd. States the cell is moving northeast along the lake from Angola? That cluster is almost dead and whatever is left is moving west into Hamburg Boston not into the city... There is a very nice lightning show looking south however.


.

Anyone know why it’s only Lake Erie that kills convection? As you said it’s crossed over other Great Lakes since yesterday, of which are also colder than Lake Erie due to their depth. 

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