• Member Statistics

    15,529
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    davisinstruments
    Newest Member
    davisinstruments
    Joined
BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

Recommended Posts

38F this morning.  Rode my bicycle to work and thought it felt like a perfect day for trick or treating.

For June, not so much.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It was snowing at the summit of Whiteface Mountain this morning.  First time I've ever seen that (Adirondack snow in June) although I'm sure its happened before.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Too early to question if a year without a summer incoming?  I know that sounds fatalistic and likely the byproduct of sitting here in early June going on 72+ hours with the Mercury not once topping 60 degrees, but...it’s not without precedent. We’ve had other summers where “summer” never launched. Just weeks and weeks of damp, cool weather interspersed with very brief heat spikes. 

Forgetting for a second the incessant cold and wet we’ve endured since “spring” started on April 1, just look at what lies ahead. What should be a few mild (not warm/hot) fair days starting Friday is squashed on the modeling by yet another deep trof in SE Canada. 

Until and unless our predominant flow stops coming from a polar bears ass frolicking on the ice of Hudson Bay I’ll keep questioning if summer will come to these parts this year. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

Too early to question if a year without a summer incoming?  I know that sounds fatalistic and likely the byproduct of sitting here in early June going on 72+ hours with the Mercury not once topping 60 degrees, but...it’s not without precedent. We’ve had other summers where “summer” never launched. Just weeks and weeks of damp, cool weather interspersed with very brief heat spikes. 

Forgetting for a second the incessant cold and wet we’ve endured since “spring” started on April 1, just look at what lies ahead. What should be a few mild (not warm/hot) fair days starting Friday is squashed on the modeling by yet another deep trof in SE Canada. 

Until and unless our predominant flow stops coming from a polar bears ass frolicking on the ice of Hudson Bay I’ll keep questioning if summer will come to these parts this year. 

Last year had a slow start to summer too I believe? June was much cooler then normal. July-September was just ridiculously hot for this area. May was almost as warm as June was. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We will be warmer then average from Thurs to the middle of next week followed by a brief cooldown for a few days into next weekend and then we should be around average following that cooldown as the summer pattern kicks in with a zonal flow. 

ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_11.png

gfs-ens_z500a_us_51.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Last year had a slow start to summer too I believe? June was much cooler then normal. July-September was just ridiculously hot for this area. May was almost as warm as June was. 

Appreciate the optimism, but last May was 8 deg above normal and June came in 1 deg above normal. We’ll be about 7 deg below normal for June after today. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

Appreciate the optimism, but last May was 8 deg above normal and June came in 1 deg above normal. We’ll be about 7 deg below normal for June after today. 

That's what I get for going off of memory. We still have quite a bit of June to go above normal for departures. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Last year had a slow start to summer too I believe? June was much cooler then normal. July-September was just ridiculously hot for this area. May was almost as warm as June was. 

July daily mean temp was +3F, August daily mean temp was +3F, September daily mean temp was +5F. Summer was warm, and persistent, which would have been great except for the grueling humidity that took the fun out of spending time outside. I'm hoping for a repeat of last year's temps, but with much more tolerable dew points.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting note thrown into the forecast discussion by BUF today (bold text below).  It does seem like zonal flow is a rarity nowadays.  Always seems to be an anomalous trof or ridge somewhere in CONUS, no matter the season.  

The most impressive part of this upcoming pattern is not the
blocking, its evolution, nor anything of that nature...as the
pattern over the CONUS has been largely a slowly-evolving block
for the majority of a matter of years now. Instead, the shear
magnitude of upper ridging with some members of the GEFS family
eclipsing 590 dam over WNY by Sunday is reminiscent of a latter
half of July scenario rather than a late spring scenario. That
said, it is difficult to find any solution from operational or
ensemble guidance that fails to yield at least 584 dam over WNY
by Sunday, when the strongest concurrence for a continuation of
dry weather exists. That said, MOS guidance can largely be
thrown out the window as it will be far too dependent upon its
sun angle calculation (which many refer to as its climatology
component), and a more straightforward examination of mixing
profiles will need to be undertaken. We should easily mix out
through 850 mb, if not higher, so mid 80s (at least) seem like a
good bet most areas away from the immediate lakeshores, with
inland warmer areas probably locally approaching 90F.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The weather from about Syracuse up to Saranac Lake looks like it's been especially shi#$y today.  Hours and hours of rain with temps in the low 40's in the north to low 50's in the south.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

More potential rain this evening..

Forecasted 80-82 over the weekend, back in the upper 60's to start the work week..

 

Fri-Sun look awesome, sunny and warm with dews in the low 50s. Perfect weather. Warm temps here on Monday, but a chance of rain. Looks at or just below normal longer term, but it's still June.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 6/4/2019 at 2:02 PM, BuffaloWeather said:

That's what I get for going off of memory. We still have quite a bit of June to go above normal for departures. 

Have you witnessed the CPC outlooks all the way through early July??? That's a lot of Blue...

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Took the kids to the bus stop this morning.

Nice chilly drizzle.  I was wearing sweatpants, long sleeve shirt and windbreaker.

Just a perfect day for trick or treating.

 

 

  • Like 2
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I had a chance to read the link BW attached regarding the winter roundup...i particularly want to point out the part where they stated: having said that the ENSO event was just strong enough to keep us from having a memorable season...i think we all knew that was a possibility with a lot of analogs comparing to '76-'77. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hard to ask for a better day than this! 

63° with full sun in the middle of June..

Week and a half and we start losing daylight lol 

  • Like 2
  • Confused 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Struggle to even hit 60 today, currently 53° with moderate rain.. Already exceeded forecasted rain amounts,  looks like plenty more to go..

Tomorrow will be another day struggling to hit 60 before we have a week of mostly average temps (low-mid 70s)

 

fb6dcb71-b654-4e08-b790-3cf482497dae.thumb.gif.43b3a7fe98e235cdd5844f6f3570108f.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Struggle to even hit 60 today, currently 53° with moderate rain.. Already exceeded forecasted rain amounts,  looks like plenty more to go..

Tomorrow will be another day struggling to hit 60 before we have a week of mostly average temps (low-mid 70s)

 

fb6dcb71-b654-4e08-b790-3cf482497dae.thumb.gif.43b3a7fe98e235cdd5844f6f3570108f.gif

I can't believe you enjoy this weather. This is absolutely brutal. I can't enjoy my pool or do outdoor activities. Just got back from Nashville for 3 days for a company trip I won. Such a cool city. Live bands on every floor of every bar/restaurant in the entire Broadway district.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I could say the same for people that like hot and humid weather haha. Nothing like catching a sweat the minute u leave the house lol Or better yet getting eating alive by every bug imaginable..

I enjoy my grass to look green not brown, Albeit this rain is getting a bit much, I'd take 60s everyday :D

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.