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John1122

Spring/Summer 2019 medium to long range discussion.

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This afternoons Euro shows into the mid week the ridge starts to break down  and gets shunted eastward,so the above normal 2m's will last until mid week ,as the ridge gets shifted eastward we should start to be looking at more seasonal 2m's with the return of rain once again.We certainly could use some rain.I posted some text of what the Euro shows this afternoon in our area just as an example.I wouldn't be to focused on one part of the Valley in the long range..

 

In the extended look it SO FAR looks about the same.No big warm up.The MJO looks strong as it gets into the IO and possibly into the Maritime.We saw the GEFS and Euro  kill off the MJO to fast it's last pass,ENSO.So we'll see.

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA    LAT=  36.12 LON=  -86.68 ELE=   591

                                            12Z MAY26
                 2 M     2 M     2 M     SFC     SFC    6 HR    FROZN   TOTAL
                 MXT     MNT     TMP     DEW     WIND    QPF     PCP    CLOUD
                 (F)     (F)     (F)     (F)    (KTS)   (IN)    (IN)    (PCT)
SUN 12Z 26-MAY                  72.9    64.8    22004                     53    
SUN 18Z 26-MAY  90.9    72.9    91.0    57.8    24009                     30    
MON 00Z 27-MAY  92.2    83.7    83.1    62.8    33006   0.00    0.00      26    
MON 06Z 27-MAY  83.1    71.0    72.1    65.7    35002   0.00    0.00      98    
MON 12Z 27-MAY  72.3    65.8    70.8    65.2    15003   0.00    0.00      34    
MON 18Z 27-MAY  91.2    70.8    91.3    62.7    24007   0.00    0.00      29    
TUE 00Z 28-MAY  92.3    86.1    85.6    69.4    26003   0.00    0.00      69    
TUE 06Z 28-MAY  86.0    72.8    72.9    63.2    23005   0.00    0.00       0    
TUE 12Z 28-MAY  73.0    69.4    73.1    66.2    21005   0.00    0.00       0    
TUE 18Z 28-MAY  90.6    73.1    90.8    59.3    24008   0.00    0.00      35    
WED 00Z 29-MAY  93.0    86.7    86.1    63.9    21005   0.00    0.00       2    
WED 06Z 29-MAY  86.1    75.3    75.1    60.2    23005   0.00    0.00      93    
WED 12Z 29-MAY  75.2    70.8    73.9    60.5    20006   0.00    0.00      62    
WED 18Z 29-MAY  93.0    73.9    93.2    51.5    22010   0.00    0.00       8    
THU 00Z 30-MAY  95.0    87.6    86.8    57.8    24004   0.00    0.00      78    
THU 06Z 30-MAY  86.8    70.4    70.4    58.8    20002   0.00    0.00     100    
THU 12Z 30-MAY  71.6    68.4    71.7    58.9    18005   0.00    0.00      87    
THU 18Z 30-MAY  85.9    71.7    86.1    59.6    22011   0.00    0.00      96    
FRI 00Z 31-MAY  89.6    78.9    78.8    67.7    27006   0.03    0.00      38    
FRI 06Z 31-MAY  78.8    70.4    70.3    66.8    30004   0.00    0.00      28    
FRI 12Z 31-MAY  70.3    67.6    69.7    61.8    31003   0.00    0.00      98    
FRI 18Z 31-MAY  82.9    69.7    83.0    56.7    29005   0.00    0.00      47    
SAT 00Z 01-JUN  84.9    79.6    79.1    57.0    33004   0.00    0.00      44    
SAT 06Z 01-JUN  79.1    67.5    67.3    59.9    31004   0.00    0.00       2    
SAT 12Z 01-JUN  67.7    62.9    67.9    61.2    29003   0.00    0.00       0    
SAT 18Z 01-JUN  85.6    67.9    85.9    55.4    28004   0.00    0.00      10    
SUN 00Z 02-JUN  88.9    84.4    83.7    59.0    25003   0.00    0.00     100    
SUN 06Z 02-JUN  83.7    70.6    70.5    58.7    25005   0.00    0.00      96    
SUN 12Z 02-JUN  72.1    68.6    71.3    63.5    21005   0.02    0.00      55    
SUN 18Z 02-JUN  87.3    71.3    87.4    67.1    25005   0.01    0.00      46    
MON 00Z 03-JUN  87.8    75.7    76.3    72.5    22000   0.21    0.00      47    
MON 06Z 03-JUN  76.3    69.5    69.5    68.8    22003   0.00    0.00      72    
MON 12Z 03-JUN  70.3    67.8    70.7    69.0    15002   0.00    0.00     100    
MON 18Z 03-JUN  83.0    70.7    83.2    69.4    21004   0.04    0.00     100    
TUE 00Z 04-JUN  85.2    74.4    74.3    72.9    03001   0.16    0.00      99    
TUE 06Z 04-JUN  74.3    69.0    68.9    68.5    27003   0.09    0.00      99    
TUE 12Z 04-JUN  69.9    68.1    69.9    69.5    21002   0.05    0.00     100    
TUE 18Z 04-JUN  80.8    69.9    81.0    71.0    25002   0.05    0.00      99    
WED 00Z 05-JUN  81.9    74.5    75.7    72.3    13002   0.10    0.00      98    
WED 06Z 05-JUN  75.7    70.6    70.8    70.2    15002   0.01    0.00     100    
WED 12Z 05-JUN  71.0    68.5    69.1    68.6    15003   0.18    0.00      99    
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I'm afraid we are stuck with the SER for 3-4 weeks. Even when the GL gets a trough, SER is stuck. AN heights in western Canada don't help at this wavelength. Remember -AO is hot SER in warm season. Then after 4 weeks it'll be hot anyway because it's July and August. And these QPF fails with fronts... Sigh.

Regarding the incoming solar min. I think we should start with the Dalton Min. It was notable but less severe than the Maunder Min. Latter is on the table but former is more likely.

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2 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

I'm afraid we are stuck with the SER for 3-4 weeks. Even when the GL gets a trough, SER is stuck. AN heights in western Canada don't help at this wavelength. Remember -AO is hot SER in warm season. Then after 4 weeks it'll be hot anyway because it's July and August. And these QPF fails with fronts... Sigh.

Regarding the incoming solar min. I think we should start with the Dalton Min. It was notable but less severe than the Maunder Min. Latter is on the table but former is more likely.

Weeklies look quite warm into the 2nd week of June.You go chasing these last several days?

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Just returned from the Plains. Got two tornadoes Wednesday (2 cycles, one each cycle). Thursday we bricked a lay-up. We were right where the Canadian wedge hit for 30 minutes. However we got cute and went south for one we hoped would parallel a highway. Unbelievable! Maybe we deserved to miss for our over-confidence.

Thankful for the good chase Wednesday though. Photos in May 22 thread, Central / West.

13 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Weeklies look quite warm into the 2nd week of June.You go chasing these last several days?

Back on topic. SER is a Plains severe signal. Now that I'm back, wish we could change the pattern. Just doesn't look like it.

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A New Hope: Dixie Episode XX. MJO signal and Pacific IO satellite trends point to a GL trough around mid-June. Wouldn't that be nice! Even if temps stayed near normal, our humidity should drop with that scenario. Also the global wind is forecast to increase with still -AO. Unlike in May, that's a cooler signal here in June. Still, I'll believe it when I see it.

I have ground confirmation of Asia charts from Jax. South China has been rainy. Most of East Asia is a little trough-y right now. Can we do that in the USA? One thing though, we need that rain to get out of the Plains and over here. Pretty soon the inland sea will return to the Plains (ancient geology class) if this does not stop.

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So far,so good. The upcoming pattern looks wet,especially starting around mid week and beyond.The Euro this afternoon closes off the 5H some where into the S/Plains as does the GFS and slowly moves eastward.This should set the stage for shortwaves to rotate around it into the Valley through the long range.East Asia even up to 10-days still shows troughs going through

Let's hope we see some  good rains upcoming,most of all the Middle Valley is showing abnormal rains by the drought monitor.The MJO by the Euro and GEFS  wants to weaken it but this could be more ENSO and it could possibly stay out of the COD.But we should really warm up upcoming the next few weeks seemingly

If for some reason we don't see much of any rains(doubt we don't) the EDDI ,especially for you guys in the Eastern Valley shows a potential "Flash"drought and fire risk upcoming the next few weeks

 

 

EDDI_30-day_change_01mn.png

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Wonder what the PW record is in June is for any part of the Valley with out a tropical system effecting us?That would actually be pretty cool looking if you like some good thunderstorms,if not turn your head with SBCAPES well over 5k and lapse rates 7.5 with no cap and TT'S over 56.You gotta love long range models shows some loving for us,next run it might be clear :)It's still not often you see this even in fantasy land in the summer,especially with the PW's in any part of the Valley.

pwat.conus.png

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Euro today around day 6 cuts the low off as the upper ridging in Canada starts to strengthen so it just meanders around Tn./Ark and N/Ms,by day 10 it's still sitting in East Ark with nothing to kick it out.But by day 10 it starts to look like the ridge starts shifting east tho.Just another scenario to ponder:unsure:

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Euro shows us another different pattern to ponder this afternoon.The LP gets cut off around Mid Tn and  then retrogrades back southwards.This would be a good rain maker for us here in the Mid Valley,if it were to actually happen.But i'm sure we'll see more changes upcoming.I'm starting to lean towards the GFS as it seems to show less volatility upcoming with the pattern,but who knows?

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA    LAT=  36.12 LON=  -86.68 ELE=   591

                                            12Z JUN02
                6 HR    6 HR    FROZN   TOTAL    SFC     2 M    1000    1000 
                 QPF     CVP     PCP     QPF     PCP     TMP     500     850 
                (IN)    (IN)    (IN)    (IN)    TYPES    (C)     THK     THK 
SUN 12Z 02-JUN                                          21.3     567     140    
SUN 18Z 02-JUN                          0.00            30.2     570     141    
MON 00Z 03-JUN  0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00            27.4     570     141    
MON 06Z 03-JUN  0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00            20.2     567     139    
MON 12Z 03-JUN  0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00            18.1     565     138    
MON 18Z 03-JUN  0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00            27.2     566     139    
TUE 00Z 04-JUN  0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00            25.0     569     140    
TUE 06Z 04-JUN  0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00            17.8     568     139    
TUE 12Z 04-JUN  0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00            17.6     569     140    
TUE 18Z 04-JUN  0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00            32.2     572     142    
WED 00Z 05-JUN  0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00            28.8     574     143    
WED 06Z 05-JUN  0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00            22.6     574     143    
WED 12Z 05-JUN  0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00            23.3     573     142    
WED 18Z 05-JUN  0.01    0.01    0.00    0.01            31.2     574     142    
THU 00Z 06-JUN  0.02    0.02    0.00    0.03            27.1     574     142    
THU 06Z 06-JUN  0.01    0.01    0.00    0.04            23.4     573     142    
THU 12Z 06-JUN  0.04    0.01    0.00    0.07            21.9     571     140    
THU 18Z 06-JUN  0.11    0.03    0.00    0.19            24.8     572     140    
FRI 00Z 07-JUN  0.05    0.02    0.00    0.23            24.3     574     141    
FRI 06Z 07-JUN  0.04    0.00    0.00    0.27            22.0     573     141    
FRI 12Z 07-JUN  0.17    0.04    0.00    0.44            21.4     572     140    
FRI 18Z 07-JUN  0.31    0.03    0.00    0.74            22.7     573     141    
SAT 00Z 08-JUN  0.28    0.03    0.00    1.03            23.4     575     141    
SAT 06Z 08-JUN  0.15    0.10    0.00    1.18            21.1     573     140    
SAT 12Z 08-JUN  0.08    0.05    0.00    1.26            20.9     572     140    
SAT 18Z 08-JUN  0.05    0.03    0.00    1.30            26.2     574     141    
SUN 00Z 09-JUN  0.24    0.17    0.00    1.54            22.6     574     140    
SUN 06Z 09-JUN  0.17    0.07    0.00    1.71            21.2     573     140    
SUN 12Z 09-JUN  0.41    0.04    0.00    2.12            21.4     573     140    
SUN 18Z 09-JUN  0.60    0.10    0.00    2.71            22.1     573     140    
MON 00Z 10-JUN  0.22    0.10    0.00    2.93            21.9     574     140    
MON 06Z 10-JUN  0.12    0.05    0.00    3.05            21.1     575     140    
MON 12Z 10-JUN  0.43    0.10    0.00    3.48            21.1     574     140    
MON 18Z 10-JUN  0.33    0.11    0.00    3.81            23.4     574     140    
TUE 00Z 11-JUN  0.52    0.27    0.00    4.33            21.5     573     140    
TUE 06Z 11-JUN  0.37    0.05    0.00    4.70            19.9     572     140    
TUE 12Z 11-JUN  0.29    0.06    0.00    4.99            18.6     570     139    
TUE 18Z 11-JUN  0.21    0.03    0.00    5.20            21.1     570     138    
WED 00Z 12-JUN  0.02    0.01    0.00    5.22            20.1     569     138    
WED 06Z 12-JUN  0.01    0.00    0.00    5.23            17.8     569     137    
WED 12Z 12-JUN  0.00    0.00    0.00    5.23            16.8     567     137    



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One thing to look at which could give the GFS more credence, to me anyways.Around Wednesday upcoming there is weak ridging building up in East Asia,into the Yellow Sea and S/Korea,this would seem to potentially bring an area of HP in the east and maybe even into the TN Valley some where around the 12th or 13th,but this should get kicked out rather quickly and another trough in the east shortly after

 

ecmwf_z500a_wpac_4.png

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ECMWF and its Parallel/Beta deterministic have surface ridging coming into the Valley from the northeast around June 12-13; so, it sees the solution. I stopped looking at the GFS a few weeks back when I started to get two Euro versions per run. Why look at trash when two good EC versions are available?

Anyway later this week should get wetter for the Mid South and Tennessee Valley. Stationary from should drop in here Wednesday. Then a slow moving southern stream low will work with it to create several chances of rain through the weekend. Outflow boundaries would help with additional QPF, which we kind of need right now. Might help with something else too, hehe.

Probably have to favor Hoosier Alley this time of year, but southwest flow aloft and LLJ are both forecast over Dixie late week.

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Euro and GFS agree with each other.Looks like a nice work week into the first part of the weekend until Sunday when the instabilities  start creeping upwards.East Asia looks fairly active the next 10 days with no big ridge setting in

 

US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook 
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 
333 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2019 

Valid Thursday June 13 2019 - Monday June 17 2019 

Hazards: 
- Heavy rain across portions of the Southern/Central Plains, the Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley, 
the Tennessee Valley, and the Ohio Valley, Thu-Mon, Jun 13-Jun 17. 
- Flooding possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and the Southern Appalachians. 
- Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Plains, the Mississippi Valley, the Great 
Lakes, the Southern Appalachians, the Southeast, and the Ohio Valley. 
- Flooding likely across portions of the Great Basin, the Northern/Central Rockies, the Northern 
Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, and the Southern Plains. 
- Excessive heat across portions of the Southern Plains, Sat-Mon, Jun 15-Jun 17. 
- Much above normal temperatures across portions of California, the Pacific Northwest, the Northern 
Rockies, and the Northern Great Basin, Thu-Mon, Jun 13-Jun 17. 

Detailed Summary: 

After a break over the past couple days and during the short range period, the central U.S. is once 
again expecting heavy rainfall in the medium range. Model uncertainty exists regarding the 
placement of shortwave troughs in the western U.S. that could influence the lift for this 
precipitation, but regardless, moisture inflow is expected to increase in the Central/Southern 
Plains initially and spread eastward through the period. Thus, the current forecast shows heavy 
rain beginning in the Central/Southern Plains by Thursday and spreading into the Middle Mississippi 
Valley and Ohio Valley for the weekend. Overall a widespread 2 to 4 inches of precipitation is 
forecast for parts of the Southern Plains, Middle Mississippi Valley, and the Ohio Valley, with 
locally higher amounts. These regions have generally had much above average rainfall over the past 
few months and are sensitive to additional rainfall. By next Monday and Tuesday, a slow-moving 
front is expected to suppress the heavy rain a bit southward into the Lower Mississippi Valley and 
Tennessee Valley, while continuing in the Southern Plains. Heavy rainfall is also possible farther 
east toward the Lower Great Lakes region and Northeast for the end of the period, but did not 
outlook an area there due to uncertainties in amounts and placement. 

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA    LAT=  36.12 LON=  -86.68 ELE=   591

                                            12Z JUN10
                 2 M     SFC     SFC    6 HR    6 HR    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     DEW    CAPE     QPF     CVP     NCP     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    J/KG    (IN)    (IN)    (IN)    (DM)     THK 
MON 12Z 10-JUN  21.9    21.5     261                             585     572    
MON 18Z 10-JUN  25.4    20.2     114                             586     572    
TUE 00Z 11-JUN  22.2    12.2       0    0.02    0.01    0.01     585     570    
TUE 06Z 11-JUN  16.5    10.5       0    0.00    0.00    0.00     584     567    
TUE 12Z 11-JUN  14.9     9.6       0    0.00    0.00    0.00     584     565    
TUE 18Z 11-JUN  23.1     8.5       0    0.00    0.00    0.00     584     567    
WED 00Z 12-JUN  20.4    12.6       0    0.00    0.00    0.00     582     568    
WED 06Z 12-JUN  16.2    10.3       0    0.00    0.00    0.00     581     567    
WED 12Z 12-JUN  16.1    11.9       6    0.00    0.00    0.00     578     566    
WED 18Z 12-JUN  26.4    14.0       1    0.00    0.00    0.00     576     566    
THU 00Z 13-JUN  22.0    14.2       0    0.00    0.00    0.00     571     563    
THU 06Z 13-JUN  16.3    13.0       8    0.00    0.00    0.00     568     559    
THU 12Z 13-JUN  16.3    14.0       6    0.00    0.00    0.00     566     555    
THU 18Z 13-JUN  21.9     9.0       0    0.00    0.00    0.00     570     557    
FRI 00Z 14-JUN  19.5     9.0       0    0.00    0.00    0.00     572     559    
FRI 06Z 14-JUN  12.8     8.5       0    0.00    0.00    0.00     576     560    
FRI 12Z 14-JUN  13.7    10.2       0    0.00    0.00    0.00     579     561    
FRI 18Z 14-JUN  24.0     7.7       0    0.00    0.00    0.00     582     564    
SAT 00Z 15-JUN  22.4    13.0       0    0.00    0.00    0.00     583     568    
SAT 06Z 15-JUN  16.0    11.2       0    0.00    0.00    0.00     584     568    
SAT 12Z 15-JUN  17.7    11.2       0    0.00    0.00    0.00     584     569    
SAT 18Z 15-JUN  29.2    14.4       0    0.00    0.00    0.00     585     572    
SUN 00Z 16-JUN  27.0    16.8       0    0.00    0.00    0.00     585     575    
SUN 06Z 16-JUN  23.0    16.5      28    0.00    0.00    0.00     585     575    
SUN 12Z 16-JUN  22.7    19.0    1272    0.10    0.10    0.00     585     572    
SUN 18Z 16-JUN  30.1    21.9    2561    0.10    0.10    0.00     586     575    
MON 00Z 17-JUN  23.2    22.2    1630    0.43    0.41    0.02     584     573    
MON 06Z 17-JUN  21.6    21.1    1232    0.05    0.05    0.00     584     572    
MON 12Z 17-JUN  21.6    20.9     957    0.06    0.04    0.01     583     571    
MON 18Z 17-JUN  28.0    22.9    2480    0.08    0.07    0.01     584     573    
TUE 00Z 18-JUN  25.5    22.2    1673    0.05    0.05    0.00     583     573    
TUE 06Z 18-JUN  22.6    21.8    1164    0.04    0.01    0.03     582     573    
TUE 12Z 18-JUN  20.7    20.1     715    0.38    0.26    0.12     582     572    
TUE 18Z 18-JUN  26.0    21.5     610    0.10    0.08    0.02     584     574    
WED 00Z 19-JUN  24.6    22.7    1443    0.12    0.07    0.05     584     575    
WED 06Z 19-JUN  21.8    21.5    1937    0.06    0.06    0.00     584     574    
WED 12Z 19-JUN  22.2    21.6    1331    0.28            0.03     584     574    
WED 18Z 19-JUN  28.3    22.6    1838    0.07            0.01     585     576    
THU 00Z 20-JUN  25.6    22.5    1490    0.11    0.11    0.01     583     576    
THU 06Z 20-JUN  21.7    21.5     872    0.40    0.38    0.02     582     574    
THU 12Z 20-JUN  21.8    21.1     727    0.14    0.04    0.10     582     573    



 

 

 

 

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I am digging this non...90 degree, oppressive mega heat ridge pattern.   Been pleasant up at TRI today.   Was out West last week and feels remarkably similar...minus the humidity of course.  I go running at 6,000'.  Folks ask me if it is difficult.  I always tell them that the first couple of days are tough, but the low humidity out there and cool mornings are like paradise.  I can generally run 1/3 more than I do here once acclimated. When I get home, breathing at long distance is easier, but the heat is just withering.  It has snowed about 8,000' several times since last weekend...the day after I left of course!  While we were out there, got a wicked thunderstorm that took shingles off of rooftops.  Pretty rare out there since most of those roofs are rated for high winds.

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Rather see this in Nov and not June.Jamstec keeps Nino going through basically May.This is "JFM" not what it's tagged

Low latitude Climate Prediction Research|JAMSTEC.png

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MJO is showing signs of getting into the Western  and Central Pacific,this should be a more +NAO with the strongest -PNA we've seen since winter.We should see AN temps in the long range,good news though it shouldn't last long,right now anyways

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MJO still look more progressive than what the RMM's are showing but it does look like it could  weaken,somewhat.NAO looks more flat lined today  going + or -, choose your dart.PNA by the GEFS and it ensembles are tight together showing a  -PNA into wk 3 of this month but going back possibly positive towards the end of the month into July.Euro shows in the long range(day 8-10 shows a 594DM into MS and Alabama,this wouldn't be relative bad for us in the Valley heat wise,you should even have a chance of a shortwave or two.

nino34 ENSMEAN_plus png  800×618 .png

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In the mid-term I agree any heat will be short-lived. Also looks like ridge height anomalies are more up over Canada and the GL. Puts us on the soft underbelly with chances of rain to temper daytime highs. Nights may be muggy though.

In the long-term I also agree July may not be too bad this year. We'll get our heat bursts, but no big heat wave signals are seen. Should get breaks too; maybe not true cold fronts, but soft ridges.

Way out there term, it's tough to fight the climate signal. Doesn't the JMA always freeze blast winter in the Southeast US? Looks like it's all-in more El Nino.

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2 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

In the mid-term I agree any heat will be short-lived. Also looks like ridge height anomalies are more up over Canada and the GL. Puts us on the soft underbelly with chances of rain to temper daytime highs. Nights may be muggy though.

In the long-term I also agree July may not be too bad this year. We'll get our heat bursts, but no big heat wave signals are seen. Should get breaks too; maybe not true cold fronts, but soft ridges.

Way out there term, it's tough to fight the climate signal. Doesn't the JMA always freeze blast winter in the Southeast US? Looks like it's all-in more El Nino.

Yeah,the JMA does this.Probably not a good sign

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As Jeff would say, in the way out there....So, for kicks and giggles, here we go with some "much too early" upcoming winter thoughts.

1.  First, the much debated QBO...The positive phase of the QBO tends to last 13-14 months.  Assuming that it does not got crazy like the last positive cycle(an anomalously long positive cycle), we are about half way through the positive cycle.  That means that we could possibly see the QBO flip negative during January or February.  As Jeff has noted previously, it is the trend that matters.  So it looks like the QBO will be positive but trending downward.  Found a great graphic(does not include solar min influence...which does matter) in that regard.  Looks like we will be in "C" - maybe a shot at "A" during the last half of winter.  Last winter we basically were in "D".  

https://blog.weatherops.com/will-the-negative-qbo-increase-the-odds-for-a-colder-winter-this-year

267566339_ScreenShot2019-06-19at9_32_59AM.png.b750fcfd47559fa0483649e9ab96951f.png

2.  Here is the latest QBO data.  You can look at the flip that occurred last November.  By roughly this upcoming December, it should have run its course.  More importantly, it should be dropping by the beginning of winter.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data

1720039518_ScreenShot2019-06-19at9_47_09AM.thumb.png.e0c33621abc931dcc81fe6da5d82023e.png

3.  As for evidence that the QBO is in a phase change, take a look at the cross section of atmospheric winds for the QBO.  Unless we have a double dip like the last cycle, one can notice the beginning of the flip in the very upper right hand corner of the graphic.  See the blue peaking through near 20mb?  That is the beginning of the "downwelling" of the next negative cycle.  Again, please note that during the last cycle that the blue appeared and then regressed.  The others were fairly clean flips.

https://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/Global/Atm_Circulation/QBO.html

484729085_ScreenShot2019-06-19at9_31_55AM.png.8848fde7334dca18ba9bc769b92d882f.png

4.  The SOI is now firmly negative which it was not during this past winter.  It was positive and was a La Nina signal.  

https://beta.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

1524442180_ScreenShot2019-06-19at10_25_34AM.png.d00526f248268a9b30466a8ca6aed926.png

5.  Then, we have the solar min.  Sunspot numbers have been bleak during the past several weeks.  Today is another zero.

https://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/sunspots/

1127354458_ScreenShot2019-06-19at9_50_56AM.png.e640a8d8d52e25578a326d5f16e53148.png

 

6.  ENSO....Just looking at the latest ENSO predictions in Jax's superb ENSO thread, looks like the weak El Nino has a somewhat decent chance of making it into winter.  Though, I did read that a Nada is statistically on the table as well....maybe a 1/3 chance for it?

7.  Once last nugget...here is a plotter for various weather data.  Beware, you might be there a while once you start browsing.  Just have to create a log-in.

https://mrcc.illinois.edu/CLIMATE/index.jsp

8.  Addendum.  Meant to throw this into the mix and forgot.  The AMO is still positive(positive phase correlates to warm winters in the East) , though it did make a quick, almost statistically insignificant dip into negative territory last winter.  It does make me wonder if the downward trajectory correlated somewhat to the cold November last year.  Then, during this past December it rebounded at about the same time that we flipped warm.  Something to think about.  At some point this will flip consistently negative, but that is difficult to predict in yearly increments - probably will flip sometime during the next 5-10 years.  

https://stateoftheocean.osmc.noaa.gov/atm/amo.php

1519721511_ScreenShot2019-06-19at11_15_35AM.png.4aea2f091bf627a2348d36df049c29ae.png

Summary:  Let me state this post is not a prediction, but merely speculation(and maybe even wild speculation given the relative time frame to the upcoming winter).  It is admittedly tough to nail down 3-4 week predictions, much less seasons stabs made during early summer.  Until we know the ENSO state for winter(October and November will give us a solid look), any prediction would have very low skill.  So, just speculation for DJF.  As of right now...looks like a weak to very weak El Nino...maybe even a Nada.  It does appear that the NA weather pattern is now actually coupled with the ENSO state as evidenced by a lack of predicted heat waves and decent amounts of rain - finally.(Spring was a scorcher)  The solar cycle is approaching what could be a series of cycles that will be classified as a "minimum." The QBO "should" be falling(trending towards negative) as next winter opens.  Past that, I am sure there is some index(if not our very latitude) that will likely make every attempt to "screw us" out of a good winter...please reference the over active MJO of 18-19.  JB has noted this week that the effects of Super Ninos have lingered several winter seasons after each significant event. I think that supports what some have noted as a current warm climate signal, please reference comments  from last winter(TyphoonTip I think) about the basin wide Pacific temp gradient(entire basin was warmer than normal) and how it can actually wash-out a weak El Nino signal.  So, early prognostication would seem to at least show a "lean" towards a trough in the East for Jan/Feb with a classic El Nino backloaded winter...unless the MJO can't settle down.  If that happens, just expect an ugly winter(maybe just do that anyway and be pleasantly surprised if wrong.  LOL.).  So maybe an early winter for those in the West and a decent January/February for those in the East west of the Apps.  Also, it has been a while since we have seen a good old fashioned winter where all of the NA continent(full latitude trough) was base cold for much of the winter...will we ever see that again?  Lastly, what we don't know is where the worst of the cold will set-up in the northern hemisphere for winter.  We may not know that for some time and might not even be known until the hemispheric winter pattern actually establishes itself.  Remember, sometimes we can have a great pattern but the actual cold stays in Siberia...and doesn't fill the eastern trough.  We really need the AMO to go negative and stay there very several years.

 

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Models are showing a ridge coming through East Asia Tuesday,but this looks more into NE China,could see some height rises into the Valley around the first of July.Don't see no big sustained warm up forth coming, right now anyways.Really wonder what will happen into July.The SOI totally tanked recently and the GEFS and basically it's esemble's shows the AAM going negative.MJO looks progressive as it gets into the Pac  and could possibly get into the IO into July,not sure about this.Upcoming just as well the models continue to show a lot of convergence into the Yucatan and W/GOM in a few days,so probably need the watch for some possible tropical genesis upcoming.Lots to ponder it seems to me upcoming into July.

 

30 day Av. SOI red_icon.png
90 day Av. SOI yellow_icon.png
Daily contribution green_icon.png
Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI
23 Jun 2019 1012.39 1013.75 -18.63 -9.41 -5.89
22 Jun 2019 1008.86 1013.55 -42.04 -9.54 -5.72
21 Jun 2019 1010.52 1014.25 -35.29 -8.78 -5.20
20 Jun 2019 1012.56 1014.05 -19.54 -7.80 -4.76
19 Jun 2019 1013.60 1014.00 -11.88 -7.35 -4.61
18 Jun 2019 1013.43 1013.75 -11.32 -7.25 -4.54

AAM-GWO-Mapwall.png

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Not sure what to think about the upcoming pattern into July.The GEFS is tanking the AAM with  MJO  into phase 2 almost -2 sigma,fairly strong MJO signal for a model that has a bias to keep it out of this phase in the long range.Out in Asia the models are showing the seasonal Meiyu front,should keep a eye out  into the China Sea towards Japan,tho the SST's are much cooler east of Japan.Those waters are warm into the China Sea and can have rapid intensification  into a strong typhoon even though the models show nothing,remember Maria,last year?

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1952  was rather hot in Mid/Tn.,the ENSO was as neutral as it could get for"MJJ" sitting at 0.0 on the ONI

 

Middle Tennessee Weather History

 

On June 30, 1952...
Temperature at Nashville reaches 106, setting a record high for the month. It also marks the 8th consecutive day of 100+ readings, a record. Crossville sets both the daily record low and high for the date, with a morning reading of 52 degrees, and an afternoon mark of 93.

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Looking like a pattern change towards the mid week and maybe even several days afterwards.Winds tho look really sad so the pattern would be more diurnal depending on shortwaves/MCS that could occur during this time.Towards the latter part of next week the models are dropping a CF down and potentially stalling it out into the OV which would keep us into the warm sector for at least diurnal thunderstorms, it seems right now.But of course all this could change with the future model runs

 

Out in east Asia the GEFS and GEPS continues to show a  seasonal Meiyu front.Euro and EPS don't seem so bullish with this right now,so we'll see if this does materialize. If it does you could see some catastrophic flooding into Southern Japan

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A little rest from the heat will be nice when Barry related rains pass through Sat-Mon, but the heat should return by Wednesday next week. 

Too early for a tropical system to truly break the heat. Later in August, especially a system to our east, might help shut down summer. July, with a system to our west, just drags in more humidity after the rain ends. Plus the latent heat release upstairs contributes to the heat ridge. 

Global AAM is also low. Combine that with continued blocking in the northern latitudes, and it's a hot signal for the South. In this case it looks like a Midwest problem too. Great Lakes could get a break when the Alaska ridge rebuilds. Regardless, no rest for the South until maybe July 26-29-ish. Hopefully the ECMWF weeklies still have that less hot look starting the 26-29th like the CFS does.

Elsewhere, good that Japan did not get the Meiyu treatment too bad. Farther southwest, it seems that baroclinic zone is stuck in South China year-round. They had an awful two-week cloudy stretch the exact same days as the Tennessee Valley last winter. Yuck!

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Ok, @nrgjeff.  We looking at a La Nina this winter?  Seems like the range is a Nada on the top end and a weak La Nina on the low end.  I have a feeling that we have another winter that doesn't play nice(in terms of forecasting) on its way....

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Fortunately my July 11 post busted. That mild low humidity last week was simply awesome! Even this week is reasonable for late July. Looks like our region will avoid big heat for a couple weeks. Especially the Mid South (West Tenn) could be mild. AAM is trying to go positive which helps the mild story.

I have no feeling for ENSO this winter. Surface vs sub-surface battle will depend on how the next few KWs go. ENSO models are all over the place with some CFS ECMWF divergence. Probably defer to the ENSO thread for details and graphics.

Either way winter probably will be difficult to forecast. Trend has been mild winters but with sharp unpredictable cold fronts. I suppose we could put very early winter speculation with the ENSO thread. Other than the weak solar cycle, ENSO is the only signal this far out. Maybe several weeks or a couple months from a winter prelim/spec thread?

Back to summer, even August seems a toss-up. Looks to start mild per first paragraph. One would expect another burst of heat, maybe mid-month. After that normal temps start falling. And football starts!

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6 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Fortunately my July 11 post busted. That mild low humidity last week was simply awesome! Even this week is reasonable for late July. Looks like our region will avoid big heat for a couple weeks. Especially the Mid South (West Tenn) could be mild. AAM is trying to go positive which helps the mild story.

I have no feeling for ENSO this winter. Surface vs sub-surface battle will depend on how the next few KWs go. ENSO models are all over the place with some CFS ECMWF divergence. Probably defer to the ENSO thread for details and graphics.

Either way winter probably will be difficult to forecast. Trend has been mild winters but with sharp unpredictable cold fronts. I suppose we could put very early winter speculation with the ENSO thread. Other than the weak solar cycle, ENSO is the only signal this far out. Maybe several weeks or a couple months from a winter prelim/spec thread?

Back to summer, even August seems a toss-up. Looks to start mild per first paragraph. One would expect another burst of heat, maybe mid-month. After that normal temps start falling. And football starts!

Thanks for the update.  I have read recently that this is yet another year with very few analogs and even those years are debatable.  QBO poised to fall.  Nino quickly fading.  Warm blob in the western Pacific.  Low solar.  Yeah, definitely looking forward to ball this year.  Really hoping we can get some non-hot-as-crap-fall weather earlier than later.  LOL.  The endless summer scenario is getting old like we have had during the past few years.  But hey, the past couple of weeks have been exceptionally nice.  Going to be interesting to see how the aforementioned indices will play this fall.

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