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Rtd208

E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2018-19 OBS Thread

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I like that we moved away from an amped up system today and more of a slow moving boundary with stj moisture via 700mb transport along the cold sector. This is one way I95 areas can cash in. Amp this up and it's mostly a farther N and W event. Steady as she goes.

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decent hit coming to SCPA /NMD friday am thump snow looks like 2-5"  the euro had this back on monday , lost it and now its back on 18z. the gem has been steady eddy with it along with nam/rgem combo. should be interesting as it comes overnight almost all sticks and ends  morning rush hour, trafic might be a nightmare 

 

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41 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I like that we moved away from an amped up system today and more of a slow moving boundary with stj moisture via 700mb transport along the cold sector. This is one way I95 areas can cash in. Amp this up and it's mostly a farther N and W event. Steady as she goes.

i dunno about i95 for sunday into monday. i think if you take gfs move it 50-75 miles NW , euro move it 25-50 miles SE  you get your axis of heaviest snow .. gotta smell the sleet to get the thump !

 

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I hope we get a forumwide 6-12" mon, but I agree with redsky on the gfs being most consistent.  It's done well with pretty much all of the swfe. I forgot how it looked for Nov though, I was working near Oneida, Ny so I was more focused on the LE  :lol:

Took off the 9th through 12th.  Might extend that a day and fly to Colorado for a solo trip and try to meetup with friends.  Or go north again.  Either way, I feel good that the 10 day looks nice for both locations. Tahoe and Oregon are getting slammed, never been, but its too last minute for that. That's how I roll :scooter: 

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5 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Winters best model the old venerable GFS is a rainstorm outside of far NW burbs

 

It's not really a big shift and rain/snow line looks to be around me. I'd be worried if it gets worse and worse. And hopefully the Euro gets better.

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3 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Run with anything that gives DC 6" and skips CNJ

 

This winter it is ok to be skeptical from the start of every major snow event shown.

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Just now, RedSky said:

Run with anything that gives DC 6" and skips CNJ

 

Really I buy the gfs and hope it trends south.  We need 36-48 more hours to pin it down so that gives us hope for a southern trend.  Hopefully not the likely jog north.  Didnt models have this over NC last weekend? 

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Just now, ChasingFlakes said:

Really I buy the gfs and hope it trends south.  We need 36-48 more hours to pin it down so that gives us hope for a southern trend.  Hopefully not the likely jog north.  Didnt models have this over NC last weekend? 

It was a cutter then a deep south slider now it's a tease lol

 

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7 minutes ago, ChasingFlakes said:

Fv3 is wack, look at these lollis.  Maybe it does ok with track but its snowfall algorithms are a weenies wet dream.  

 

Edit: You guys have been saying it all winter, this is just a perfect example. 

fv3p_asnow_neus_fh228-228.gif

That's 18z...fv3 0z not on TT yet. But yeah, it's nice to look at :-).

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5 minutes ago, RedSky said:

ECM/HIV3FU vs CMC/ICON place your bets now

ancient GFS is in the middle as the wildcard

 

Got my $ on an I95 snow to rain with a NW burbs SECS. Havent waivered on that thinking. Essentially the GFS. Funny how the model being retired likely has the closest solution.

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2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Got my $ on an I95 snow to rain with a NW burbs SECS. Havent waivered on that thinking.

I have some interest in the 0z ECM, the NAVGEM is wound up with this also and in previous times that was a red flag

 

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