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wxmanmitch

NNE Winter Thread

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1 hour ago, J.Spin said:

The BTV NWS is starting to get a bit more detailed in their discussion of the weekend system.  Their thoughts from this morning are for 3 to 4 inches of front end snowfall on Sunday, then dry slot with potential for a bit of mixed precipitation.  They’re also noting the potential for several inches of backside snow as we move into the beginning of next week:

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

As of 309 AM EST Thursday...Guidance in good agreement with band of mostly snow developing from southwest to northeast across our cwa on Sunday associated with modest low to mid level waa. Ribbon of 850 to 500mb moisture is relatively narrow, along with window of favorable 850 to 700mb fgen forcing, so anticipate qpf/snowfall to generally be light. In addition, mid level dry slot and brisk 850mb winds of 45 to 60 knots will create some downslope shadowing across the cpv. Expect snowfall of a dusting to 3 or 4 inches, highest in the dacks and nek. Some localized gusty southeast downslope winds of 35 to 40 mph possible, but some uncertainty on amount of mixing with strong low level inversion and precip occurring. Higher resolution models will help determine strength of downslope winds in the upcoming days. Otherwise, cwa briefly gets into the warm sector with progged 925mb to 850mb temps near 0c by 18z Sunday, supporting a change to rain or wintry mix. However, as profiles warm enough to support liquid, the best lift/moisture is shifting to our east, so probably more like areas of drizzle/freezing drizzle possible on Sunday aftn. Temps should warm into the l30s east of the Greens to mid 30s to near 40 elsewhere, while summits hold in the upper 20s to near 30f. Cold front swings thru on Sunday night with progged 925mb to 850mb temps falling below 0c by 06z, supporting a change back to all snow. Once again qpf will be light and mainly confined to the mountains. GFS/ECMWF shows potent s/w energy and ribbon of deep 850 to 500mb rh moving across our cwa on Monday Night into Tues. This energy/lift, combined with developing upslope flow behind secondary cold front will produce several inches of snow in the mountains overnight. Temps cool back into the 20s to near 30f for Tues as 850mb values drop btwn -13c and -16c. Another ridge develops for midweek with temps slowly rebounding to near normal values by Weds into Thurs. Expect large swings in daily temps with lows single digits/teens and highs upper 20s to upper 30s.

josh fox going 4-7" above 3000' and 2-4" below for the sunday deal.

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-1.4° F this morning.

Lets keep winter going please! I want 6 more weeks of cold and snow like last year so we can keep mud and black fly season to a minimum. 

Last April was like deep winter here with lots of chilly days in the 30s and nights well below freezing in the teens and 20s. Once the rubber band snapped at the start of May, spring came in a hurry going from deep snow pack to leaf out in about 2 weeks, which is how I'd like to do it every year. Long drawn out mud seasons suck.

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4 hours ago, Hitman said:

josh fox going 4-7" above 3000' and 2-4" below for the sunday deal.

I'm going to be much lower than that...1-3" of snow/sleet at all elevations for the front end...backside upslope will be minimal IMO until Monday.

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Event totals: 0.5” Snow/0.02” L.E.

 

With the consistent daily snowfall this week it’s been feeling like December, although it looks like things will be a bit less active for the next couple of days until the weekend system.

 

Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.5 inches

New Liquid: 0.02 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 25.0

Snow Density: 4.0% H2O

Temperature: 16.2 F

Sky:  Flurries

Snow at the stake: 31.0 inches

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Just now, J.Spin said:

Event totals: 0.5” Snow/0.02” L.E.

 

With the consistent daily snowfall this week it’s been feeling like December, although it looks like things will be a bit less active for the next couple of days until the weekend system.

 

Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.5 inches

New Liquid: 0.02 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 25.0

Snow Density: 4.0% H2O

Temperature: 16.2 F

Sky:  Flurries

Snow at the stake: 31.0 inches

Cold, daily snow showers is the name of the game for the past week.

Flakes daily, not adding up to anything noteworthy but "snowy climate" type days.

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3 hours ago, powderfreak said:

I'm going to be much lower than that...1-3" of snow/sleet at all elevations for the front end...backside upslope will be minimal IMO until Monday.

Either way, I’m taking a powder day Monday.  Expecting good conditions.

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Just now, Hitman said:

Either way, I’m taking a powder day Monday.  Expecting good conditions.

Yeah I doubt it warms up enough to matter/melt.  Might get damp then crunchy in the lower elevations, but for Sugarbush and Stowe on the eastern slope, the cold air seems to hold a bit better under the ridgeline (so overall it's likely even another net gain at elevation of moisture and frozen precip).

Tuesday looks like a good day to me.  There's been some decent upslope signals coming in for Monday into Tuesday.  Long way to go though in terms of confidence, as it'll revolve around spokes of energy timing with flow/moisture.

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I doubt it warms up enough to matter/melt.  Might get damp then crunchy in the lower elevations, but for Sugarbush and Stowe on the eastern slope, the cold air seems to hold a bit better under the ridgeline (so overall it's likely even another net gain at elevation of moisture and frozen precip).

Tuesday looks like a good day to me.  There's been some decent upslope signals coming in for Monday into Tuesday.  Long way to go though in terms of confidence, as it'll revolve around spokes of energy timing with flow/moisture.

Wish I could stick around for Tuesday.  But alas, reality intrudes.

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11 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I doubt it warms up enough to matter/melt.  Might get damp then crunchy in the lower elevations, but for Sugarbush and Stowe on the eastern slope, the cold air seems to hold a bit better under the ridgeline (so overall it's likely even another net gain at elevation of moisture and frozen precip).

Tuesday looks like a good day to me.  There's been some decent upslope signals coming in for Monday into Tuesday.  Long way to go though in terms of confidence, as it'll revolve around spokes of energy timing with flow/moisture.

Based on current forecasts, looking at skiing Sugarbush Sunday, Smuggs Monday, and Stowe Tuesday. If there's a lot of windholds Sunday I like Sugarbush for at least having Valley House open. Smuggs Monday mainly because it would add 45 minutes to the ride up/back so would rather do that on the day I don't have to travel, plus they've been striking gold on NW flows this year. Stowe Tuesday will hopefully be freshened up.

Would you do those in a different order if you were me?

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3 hours ago, Zand said:

Based on current forecasts, looking at skiing Sugarbush Sunday, Smuggs Monday, and Stowe Tuesday. If there's a lot of windholds Sunday I like Sugarbush for at least having Valley House open. Smuggs Monday mainly because it would add 45 minutes to the ride up/back so would rather do that on the day I don't have to travel, plus they've been striking gold on NW flows this year. Stowe Tuesday will hopefully be freshened up.

Would you do those in a different order if you were me?

I'm looking at something similar.  Either wildcat/sugarbush sun, smugg/stowe/ jay mon and tues. That is if I ever get back from my CT work trip... 

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11 hours ago, Zand said:

Based on current forecasts, looking at skiing Sugarbush Sunday, Smuggs Monday, and Stowe Tuesday. If there's a lot of windholds Sunday I like Sugarbush for at least having Valley House open. Smuggs Monday mainly because it would add 45 minutes to the ride up/back so would rather do that on the day I don't have to travel, plus they've been striking gold on NW flows this year. Stowe Tuesday will hopefully be freshened up.

Would you do those in a different order if you were me?

That sounds great... I honestly don't think the order matters, but I know you're experience at Stowe will be much better mid-week than on a weekend.  It's an entirely different ski area Monday through Friday. 

The EURO looks good for some snow through Tuesday morning:

xxZg89d.png

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BTV declared the lake completely frozen over for the first time since 2015 when we had that record cold February.

It's been constant winter this year on the ground.  Since November.  Even the second half of October seemed cold and snowy.

53618327_2542933769111842_91092368414914

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10 hours ago, powderfreak said:

The EURO looks good for some snow through Tuesday morning:

xxZg89d.png

Well, the Mansfield elevation point forecast has gone back and forth over the past few days with a bit of mixing, but the latest looks pretty nice.  It’s hard to complain about a forecast like this when a storm is passing to the northwest:

09MAR19A.jpg

The text suggests something in the 5-8” range through Tuesday, which would be fairly in line with that ECMWF map.

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Event totals: 1.0” Snow/0.09” L.E.

 

Details from the 10:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 1.0 inches

New Liquid: 0.09 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 11.1

Snow Density: 9.0% H2O

Temperature: 30.0 F

Sky:  Light Snow (2 to 10 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 30.5 inches

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Event totals: 1.1” Snow/0.10” L.E.

 

Details from the 5:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.1 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0

Snow Density: 10.0% H2O

Temperature: 34.2 F

Sky:  Light Snow (1 to 2 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 30.5 inches

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I was surprised to see it stay primarily, if not all snow, except for some freezing mist/drizzle in the dry slot today.  Nice evening burst of snow.  I thought we might be raining.

Decent upslope signal for the northern mountains tomorrow into early Tuesday morning.

0Lss9Na.png

 

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Event totals: 1.5” Snow/0.17” L.E.

 

Details from the 11:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.4 inches

New Liquid: 0.07 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 5.7

Snow Density: 17.5% H2O

Temperature: 33.6 F

Sky:  Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 30.5 inches

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Pretty much all snow except for a few evening pingers or graupel.  2.6 ish but with crazy drifting.  I am still ahead of last years total to date by about 3 inches but that will change this week as this was the week last year when I had back to back 18 inch storms.  (90 vs 87").  I ended up with 125" last year.

 

The snow is waist deep in parts of the yard but I have not tried to get a base reading. 

This garden bench is 33" high.  The snow is now a bit deeper as this picture was from last week.

 

 

 

113 alt.jpg

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I still think a short duration but heavy squall type upslope event will take place this evening and tonight north of I89.

Even the global models have some decent QPF, with the meso-models up around 0.4-0.6". 

I think the speed has the QPF over-done and some of that convective looking stuff is likely graupel, but 3-6" tonight at the northern Green ski areas seems likely.

00z EURO

Z8w8DKH.png

12z GFS still with 0.3-0.4" for Spine.

mywpssM.png

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

I still think a short duration but heavy squall type upslope event will take place this evening and tonight north of I89.

Even the global models have some decent QPF, with the meso-models up around 0.4-0.6". 

I think the speed has the QPF over-done and some of that convective looking stuff is likely graupel, but 3-6" tonight at the northern Green ski areas seems likely.

12z GFS still with 0.3-0.4" for Spine.

I just took a look at some of the models, and every one I saw has something in the range of 0.2” to 0.5” of liquid or so.  I haven’t seen too much discussion from the BTV NWS, but we’ll see what they say in their update this afternoon.  It should be firing up this afternoon though, so now all we just sit back, let the Northern Greens do their thing, and see how much of a refresher Mother Nature wants to give us for the slopes. 

SnowyClimate.jpg

Aside from skier traffic areas, surfaces were already in decent shape from this past week’s snows based on what we found yesterday at Stowe, so this will hopefully be some additional icing on the cake.

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50 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

I just took a look at some of the models, and every one I saw has something in the range of 0.2” to 0.5” of liquid or so.  I haven’t seen too much discussion from the BTV NWS, but we’ll see what they say in their update this afternoon.  It should be firing up this afternoon though, so now all we just sit back, let the Northern Greens do their thing, and see how much of a refresher Mother Nature wants to give us for the slopes. 

 

Aside from skier traffic areas, surfaces were already in decent shape from this past week’s snows based on what we found yesterday at Stowe, so this will hopefully be some additional icing on the cake.

I have a question for your extensive Bolton knowledge.  I was up at lodge Friday evening for a birthday gathering.  I hadn't been there for years.  I know that there are extensive property holdings, nearly 3,000 acres if I remember correctly.  Do they not own the land to the left (NW, I think) of the hotel?  It seems they could have some nice runs in that area or is that part of the back country area?

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11 minutes ago, mreaves said:

I have a question for your extensive Bolton knowledge.  I was up at lodge Friday evening for a birthday gathering.  I hadn't been there for years.  I know that there are extensive property holdings, nearly 3,000 acres if I remember correctly.  Do they not own the land to the left (NW, I think) of the hotel?  It seems they could have some nice runs in that area or is that part of the back country area?

That’s part of the backcountry area – over 1,000 acres of it was purchased by the Vermont Land Trust back in 2012 because there was concern of what would happen (potentially lost access) if it was purchased by a private buyer.  It’s a great local grassroots success story:

https://www.boltonvalley.com/about-us/press-room/bolton-valley-signs-contract-to-sell-1161-acres-of-nordic-and-backcountry-terrain-28

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Been snowing hard off and on all day at Jay.  Tram was closed. Hiked up there, rode the face chutes skisrs right of the tram.  It was icy until I got into the tree and scree below the steep exposed section.  Would have rather not taken the whole ridge up and gone down earlier skiers right of the tram.  I think the snow would have held better there.  Solo so didnt mess with the dip or big Jay.  

 

Hard to tell how much they recieved since last evening but probably another 6-7 on top of yesterdsys ~4".  Made for really fast powder.

Edit^: that might be a bit high for earlier today, it was hard to tell.

 

Picture: Big Jay from top of tram around 3pm.  Snowing hard again, it had cleared out slightly when I reached the summit of Jay which was nice.  Winds were ripping at 3900'. 

20190311_144624-2419x3225.jpg

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With windholds at Smuggs and Bolton today, ended up at Stowe. Only took 3 runs outside of the Lookout to Goat range. Woods were unbelievable. Hope Madonna is open tomorrow, they've gotten 7" since the last time it opened and hoping for a few inches tonight. Been snowing at Stowe since 1:30.

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