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Ralph Wiggum

December 9-10, 2018 Wintry Weather Threat

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Almost all guidance has parts of the region seeing snowfall next weekend. GFS family and Euro control are most aggressive. Classic looking Nino event with cold hp north and a juicy STJ paying a visit.

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GEFS clearly show how the trend has been N the past few runs. Could be wrong but I think we are moving away from any suppressed Southern sliders and closing in on a more typical mid Atlantic and possibly northeast winter storm. 

gfs-ens_apcpn24_eus_fh210_trend.gif

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EPS members are a mix. Looks like mixed clusters of close calls, I95 hits, and NW burbs hits this run . A few shutouts and also some monster hits as well. Control snow mean increased. Posting this particular member because I dont think too many folks would complain if this verified:

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018120112_204_505_215.png

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I'm worried about the Aleutian High/-PNA, but this pattern has basically not verified at all since July, in this El Nino, so I think it may be a mis-signal. In reality -PNA would squash the storm, but there is a timing perfection with the accretion of snow/ice to date and this storm, there is also a lot of +potential energy in the next 7 days not materializing so historically that is also a good pattern for storm. Really nice chances. 

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18z GFS is essentially my winter outlook in a nutshell....cutter track redevelops to a tucked low snow to rain I95, wide zone of sleet, best snows far N and W. I hope on so many levels this is not how next weekend plays out.

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8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

18z GFS is essentially my winter outlook in a nutshell....cutter track redevelops to a tucked low snow to rain I95, wide zone of sleet, best snows far N and W. I hope on so many levels this is not how next weekend plays out.

and new GFS has a Carolina's blizzard, this two GFS things is a nightmare it has to end soon.

 

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0z suite brings smiles for SE PA. Bullseye still south of us in general on  cmc....GFS's moved towards an I95 hit...heaviest band central VA thru DC into DE and part of SJ. Ukmet starting to honk.

Also Euro is another solid hit for SE PA.

Where are all of the regular posters? I know there arent a ton of us but this threat has legs.

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12 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

0z suite brings smiles for SE PA. Bullseye still south of us on gfs's and cmc...heavy band central VA thru DC into DE and part of SJ. Ukmet starting to honk.

Also Euro is another solid hit for SE PA.

Where are all of the regular posters? I know there arent a ton of us but this threat has legs.

That's probably what we want at this time then a little by little movement N over the coming days.

Nice to see the Euro on board...

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10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

6z GFS takes Newman's early idea of suppression and runs with it. Reminiscent of one of the misses from last season where all models were on board for a hit here then it went to Cuba lol.

GFS is clueless. Its run to run changes have been downright comical. Thank god this mess of a model will be taken out to pasture next month. I'm more inclined to follow the GFS Para. Only problem is its always painfully slow to come out on tidbits. Hopefully this issue will be fixed when it officially takes over.

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2 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

GFS is clueless. Its run to run changes have been downright comical. Thank god this mess of a model will be taken out to pasture next month. I'm more inclined to follow the GFS Para. Only problem is its always painfully slow to come out on tidbits. Hopefully this issue will be fixed when it officially takes over.

Was going to add exactly what you said.....the shifts from run-to-run on the GFS have been absurd. Literally went from a cutter, to tucked low, to perfect track, now off the SE coast. Euro has been relatively steady FWIW. Right or wrong who knows?

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Euro control run is suppressed and a whiff for us. GEFS and EPS have also shifted mean qpf max farther South. Only a week of model runs and swings to go! Meanwhile the GEPS have delayed the threat til the 11th but cold air essentially gone by then   very marginal setup.

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Fv3 also shifted suppressed and is a whiff. Too early to write it off but the biggest trend is the strength of the blocking hp continues to increase. Acting like a wall. Not overly concerned at this range yet but also not a warm fuzzy feeling seeing most guidance shift. The threat and players are still in play for a winter storm for someone from Carolinas to S NE.

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We need a northern piece to drop down and phase. The energy is probably still up over the pole with little sampling. Models won't pick it up until 3 to 4 days away. I don't see the storm being as strung out and suppressed as the 6z GFS.  The height falls will be up the coast rather than out with the western ridging. The storm has trended up in time now, leaving less room for the cold air to escape. Not to mention a juiced up system will naturally want to come north by pumping it's own heights.

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3 hours ago, RedSky said:

Not long after Ralph created this threat thread the wheels started coming off the potential, funny how that happens..

 

Point taken but c'mon Red, you have been around long enough and you do this almost every LR storm threat every year.  Models back off from a near-perfect scenario 7 days out, people go into a frenzy and post how they knew tracking was a waste of their time, lead time shortens to 4 days and positive trends re-emerge. Whether that happens here or not I dont know but this isn't DOA by a long shot. I know your post wasnt throwing in the towel u were just lol'ing about the timing factor but stay tuned on this one....too many pieces in play here and ingredients are all still there. 

GEFS clustering closer to coast and the GEPS also have a camp that would impact our region (havent dissected the EPS yet). Not overly concerned one way or the other yet. And tbh I dont want to be in the bullseye right now so the shifting around on guidance works for me. Rather an intense nor'easter South of the region than trying to get an OV cutter low to shift for the better. 

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2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Point taken but c'mon Red, you have been around long enough and you do this almost every LR storm threat every year.  Models back off from a near-perfect scenario 7 days out, people go into a frenzy and post how they knew tracking was a waste of their time, lead time shortens to 4 days and positive trends re-emerge. Whether that happens here or not I dont know but this isn't DOA by a long shot. I know your post wasnt throwing in the towel u were just lol'ing about the timing factor but stay tuned on this one....too many pieces in play here and ingredients are all still there. 

GEFS clustering closer to coast and the GEPS also have a camp that would impact our region (havent dissected the EPS yet). Not overly concerned one way or the other yet. And tbh I dont want to be in the bullseye right now so the shifting around on guidance works for me. Rather an intense nor'easter South of the region than trying to get an OV cutter low to shift for the better. 

Happens every year and I'm not the least bit discouraged at this point. I'll be shocked if I don't see positive trends in the coming days. You may have started the thread a tad early but hell let's wing it and see what happens. We already have a decent storm under our belts and the potential for another before mid Dec...that's a solid start.

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30 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Happens every year and I'm not the least bit discouraged at this point. I'll be shocked if I don't see positive trends in the coming days. You may have started the thread a tad early but hell let's wing it and see what happens. We already have a decent storm under our belts and the potential for another before mid Dec...that's a solid start.

Yeah probably a little early....I thought that too after I made it but heck it keeps things organized if anything. My January 2016 blizzard thread was started with even more lead time iirc. The bigger ones tend to be modeled well in advance. Doesnt always mean a hit for us but guidance usually sees all of the ingredients.

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1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Yeah probably a little early....I thought that too after I made it but heck it keeps things organized if anything. My January 2016 blizzard thread was started with even more lead time iirc. The bigger ones tend to be modeled well in advance. Doesnt always mean a hit for us but guidance usually sees all of the ingredients.

Yep, the large ones are on radar well in advance and stay the course (for the most part) till the event actually occurs. Let's see what happens w/this one.

Any wintry event this early is a bonus. I'll take a 1-2" storm or a snow/mix to rain....doesn't matter.

 

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Euro is a Miller B bomb over Hatteras. North of 12z. Details have plenty of time to nail down but signal still there. UKMET looks identical thru 144 with slightly more SER reflection which would likely yield a farther N look.

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Not going to post the individual maps but the EPS have many members that are huge hits for our region...several I95 hits as well as several big ticket NW crushers. This is obviously in response to the Euro phasing that we saw overnight. CMC is a phase, Icon was a phase, and the ukmet was looking to go phased as well. There are still timing issues irt to confluence up north and just how far the slp can crawl North but those differences are very much expected at this range. Some minor diffs at 500mb are making for big diffs at the surface. Almost reminds me of a storm we had in Jan 2000 where models missed a final small sw and were showing slp headed off the SE coast but that energy which didnt seem like it would have a large impact caused a phase off of SC and allowed the system to phase and pull almost due N. No I'm not calling for a repeat just noting how at this range without sampling all sw's we are going to see 2 camps between a southern slider and a coastal crawler. Wouldn't let my guard down on this threat especially given the overnight runs. GFS family is in it's own camp for now.

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0z aaaaaaand Lucy is coming back out on the field folks like this is some kind of chronic hysterisis
 
 


Karma....

It’s almost like tonight’s game.....go birds! I mean Euro...lol


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

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trending more and more towards a southern squash. last 6 runs have trended negatively at 500 mb.. will need to stop that if we have any hope of a return north. good news is that small difference there or a reversal of that trend, can make big differences at the surface. a worry I have is that if we do see these changes, that the high will slide OTS and the primary will ride up the apps before transferring to the coast. Would be a snow to rain or ice for most. But this is early december and climo is against MECS most of the time. This pattern is pretty good but you typically need great patterns to see major storms in early december. 

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