MikeB_01 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 17 minutes ago, dj3 said: Ukie pretty much in agreement with every other model now bringing the low to the wv/pa border. Snow map keeps norther Allegheny around a foot but not gonna buy that with lp position. Definitely further south than the American models. Closer to Euro. Still has downtown in the 10+ range. You are right that it is hard to buy, but the UKie is playing with some colder temps closer to the center of low pressure. Moral of the story will of these models is that we still have some time and they are all close. Reason for concern? Sure. Ive said it a bunch and will continue to say it. The 00z run on tonights Euro will probably be what the storm will do. Just my hunch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joecon Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I read an article in The Washington Post that the GFS model was off. Something about a changeover and upgrade coming in Feb https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/01/07/national-weather-service-is-open-your-forecast-is-worse-because-shutdown/?noredirect=on 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 FWIW, Bernie still putting Pittsburgh in the 6-12 zone. Using the deeper dig on the southern energy as a justification to move the snow totals further south like the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 first glance 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 23 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: Definitely further south than the American models. Closer to Euro. Still has downtown in the 10+ range. You are right that it is hard to buy, but the UKie is playing with some colder temps closer to the center of low pressure. Moral of the story will of these models is that we still have some time and they are all close. Reason for concern? Sure. Ive said it a bunch and will continue to say it. The 00z run on tonights Euro will probably be what the storm will do. Just my hunch UKMET puts my backyard in 14in contour.. Honestly, knowing how these storms go if I end up with a 1/3 of that on the ground by late Sunday morning when the temperatures start to plummet I'll take that as a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, MikeB_01 said: first glance Interesting.. no signature of the warm tongue, at least into PA on that map. Maybe just something to do with the snow algorithm? Will be interested to see the SLP plots. Quite the war we have on our hands in model world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Euro isnt backing down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Euro isnt backing down. If anything, it looks slightly better than the 6z. I really hope there's some validity to that article about how the GFS is going to have problems during the shutdown.Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 At this point I think we may not know what we are getting until the storm comes on Saturday. It will be like the 1970 storms and the 1990 storms that I grew up without models available to me. We'll probably just have to go out Saturday and watch what is falling and hope it stays frozen. This is why my favorite weatherman Joe DeNardo would always wait until 24-48 hours out for snow totals. Right now we are still in a 2-12 range and it might not change until the storm gets here. At this point as long as that low tracks to our south anything can happen. Most of our big storms are usually under forecasted so one of these days we will be surprised. Why not this weekend? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 25 miles south during nowcasting and all of AGC is in the bullseye. I know this is wishful. Don't literally rain on my parade, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Snowing in Canonsburg. I'm calling an early out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 13 minutes ago, TeaysValleyWV said: Snowing in Canonsburg. I'm calling an early out. Watch today's little event over perform and drop like 4 inches on everyone meanwhile it was on the pay no mind list as we all tracked an upcoming rainstorm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Lol....typical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, TeaysValleyWV said: Lol....typical. Interesting... I just got a notification on my phone for a winter storm watch of AGC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ020-021-029-031-073>076- WVZ001>004-510-511-180400- /O.NEW.KPBZ.WS.A.0002.190119T1200Z-190120T1800Z/ Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson- Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Beaver-Allegheny- Washington-Greene-Westmoreland-Westmoreland Ridges-Fayette- Fayette Ridges-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall- Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston- Including the cities of New Philadelphia, Dover, Carrollton, Malvern, East Liverpool, Salem, Columbiana, Coshocton, Cadiz, Steubenville, Zanesville, Cambridge, Martins Ferry, St. Clairsville, Caldwell, Woodsfield, Aliquippa, Beaver Falls, Ambridge, Monaca, Pittsburgh Metro Area, Washington, Canonsburg, Waynesburg, Murrysville, Greensburg, New Kensington, Ligonier, Donegal, Uniontown, Champion, Ohiopyle, Weirton, Follansbee, Wellsburg, Wheeling, Moundsville, Coopers Rock, Kingwood, and Bruceton Mills 254 PM EST Thu Jan 17 2019 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 12 inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch possible. * WHERE...Portions of southwest and western Pennsylvania, east central Ohio and northern and northern panhandle of West Virginia. * WHEN...From Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, Mailman said: * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 12 inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch possible. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Yeah... "3 to 12" was amusing. Guess it's because the watch covers a large area. Heh. If someone asked me how much snow we're going to get and I said that, they'd punch me. Snowing pretty good here at the moment, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 lol... 3-12" I'm literally texting my buddy 4 miles away and he got one for 11"-15" (butler county) and mine was 3"-12" (AGC) made me lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jen16226 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 hour ago, north pgh said: At this point I think we may not know what we are getting until the storm comes on Saturday. It will be like the 1970 storms and the 1990 storms that I grew up without models available to me. We'll probably just have to go out Saturday and watch what is falling and hope it stays frozen. This is why my favorite weatherman Joe DeNardo would always wait until 24-48 hours out for snow totals. Right now we are still in a 2-12 range and it might not change until the storm gets here. At this point as long as that low tracks to our south anything can happen. Most of our big storms are usually under forecasted so one of these days we will be surprised. Why not this weekend? Haha maybe NWS saw my post and liked it and thought 3-12 sounded better Btw snowing hard here in the north hills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Nam is even worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Nam is even worse. We don’t even get much precip haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, dj3 said: We don’t even get much precip haha The question is, is it too amped. If it is then we are in a good spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: The question is, is it too amped. If it is then we are in a good spot. I feel like the nam is always too amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, Rd9108 said: The question is, is it too amped. If it is then we are in a good spot. I mean, we can think that, but let’s be honest, we know how these always play out. At least this time it’s busting days in advance rather than in the last 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: The question is, is it too amped. If it is then we are in a good spot. I think ritual had a good post this morning. There is just nothing to stop the primary low from coming north before it does it’s jump east. We don’t really have a classic hp so I don’t see a reason right now why this wouldn’t continue to nudge until game time. The euro and ukmet still show good hits but the same trend is there on them as well. Hope I’m wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I'll make a guess after the "clipper" rolls through and the 0Z model runs, but I would think 3-6" for places between Washington and Pittsburgh is a fair call right now. I'd still err on the side of lower figures, probably with either more rain or a couple inches of sleet cutting back snow amounts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, jwilson said: I'll make a guess after the "clipper" rolls through and the 0Z model runs, but I would think 3-6" for places between Washington and Pittsburgh is a fair call right now. I'd still err on the side of lower figures, probably with either more rain or a couple inches of sleet cutting back snow amounts. What about in Chalk Hill? I’m in the screw zone this time with maybe 2” with the warm tongue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 This looks like what they’ve been talking about in their discussions. A perfect blend between the Euro and American models. I love the uncertainty zone. I’ll stay optimistic since the Euro stayed put again. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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