jwilson Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Yep, time to hug the Euro. Sadly it is on its own. Even more south of the UK. 16" in Allegheny. Best model to have on our side, but I have to wonder if it is downplaying the warm-air surge while the GFS is over doing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, meatwad said: Euro holds steady! Honestly, even a compromise between that and the other camp would crush us in AGC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 I can show the gfs from last week to show how big it was with last weeks storm. It had us in 4-8 range all the way up late Thursday runs. This is so close that it I think we may have a now casting situation. Its gonna be hard watching that mix line pushing north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 58 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: Honestly not much change from the 00z...Still ok I agree, UKMET is literally within 30 miles of the 00z run, just noise. I'd still put it in the camp of less \ later phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Pretty much a perfect euro run. Even gives us some wiggle room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 11 minutes ago, jwilson said: Yep, time to hug the Euro. Sadly it is on its own. Even more south of the UK. 16" in Allegheny. Best model to have on our side, but I have to wonder if it is downplaying the warm-air surge while the GFS is over doing it. This is my thought, if its own ens agree with it then you'd typically favor it 60/40 over the other guidance at this point. If it were the other way around and the Euro showed less snow I wouldn't feel as optimistic that is for sure. I would say the UKMET is in decent agreement with it as well. The other guidance has all started biting on a less amped further south solution, and realistically if it weren't for that damned warm wedge due to our geography the track differences wouldn't be making as big a difference as they are. We need some sort of tectonic action to erect another mountain range through central Ohio the meets up with the existing APPs on a SE trajectory around Central VA, then we could pool CAD and that should force miller Bs to jump east at the right time. lol (I'm joking here.. but..) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, dj3 said: Pretty much a perfect euro run. Even gives us some wiggle room. Like I said upthread. If you were to split the difference between the euro and gfs, we’d be in pretty good shape. Southern areas would have issues though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Like I said upthread. If you were to split the difference between the euro and gfs, we’d be in pretty good shape. Southern areas would have issues though. I’m pretty happy with 12z runs overall. The only one that really sucked was the gfs. Everything else seemed to do a consensus shift towards significant snow for Pittsburgh. Even the Ggem shifted further south. I love that look on the euro temps never go above 30 and the foot line is almost down to the pa border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 7 minutes ago, dj3 said: I’m pretty happy with 12z runs overall. The only one that really sucked was the gfs. Everything else seemed to do a consensus shift towards significant snow for Pittsburgh. Even the Ggem shifted further south. I love that look on the euro temps never go above 30 and the foot line is almost down to the pa border. It’s nice to have some wiggle room to account for any WAA shenanigans. Being right on the southern edge usually doesn’t go well for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Euro Ensembles look pretty awesome. I would post them but I dont feel like it. Less solutions that screw us are showing up now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Euro Ensembles look pretty awesome. I would post them but I dont feel like it. Less solutions that screw us are showing up now. Yeah, we need King Euro to be king more than ever now.Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Every one of them is over the DelMarVa 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 36 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Euro Ensembles look pretty awesome. I would post them but I dont feel like it. Less solutions that screw us are showing up now. Yeah they look South of the OP again. With this setup less is more, but wouldn't that be wild if it ended up fringing us to the North? lol I think we have a ways to go on that though. Hopefully GFS starts to look more Euroish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Yeah they look South of the OP again. With this setup less is more, but wouldn't that be wild if it ended up fringing us to the North? lol I think we have a ways to go on that though. Hopefully GFS starts to look more Euroish. I counted only a few that kept us down to a few inches. Most of them have us getting hit pretty good which was reflected in the mean. There are some pretty sweet members in there too at 10:1. I don’t know if gfs is going to bite for the time being but I hope we can at least get a slight trend towards the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Latest from PBZ: .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... This period is of course dominated by the well-advertised weekend storm system. The models seem to be converging on a low center track to our south Saturday/Saturday night. With southeast flow ahead of the surface low and an inverted trough reaching up toward the Mason/Dixon Line, it is apparent that enough warm air will reach northward for mixed precipitation or even a change to rain for southern portions of the forecast area. The trick, of course, is where this transition zone sets up. There could very well be a sharp gradient in snow accumulations, from perhaps less than an inch in portions of northern West Virginia, to potentially double-digit storm totals in far northwest portions of the CWA. Elected to use the ECMWF as a guide for low-level temperature structure, as this seemed a good compromise between the warmer GFS and colder NAM. This ends up putting the main transition zone along a very rough line from ZZV to PIT to IDI. This is where freezing rain/sleet may be most prominent, with mainly snow to the north, and more rain than snow to the south. More refinement to the weather types and snow totals will occur as we get closer to this event. Behind the low, the coldest air of the season thus far will plunge into the CWA. Single-digit low temperatures both Sunday and Monday nights, along with gusty winds, will likely lead to wind chill headlines for at least a portion of the CWA. Northwest flow snow showers will continue into Monday morning as well. As northeast U.S. troughing relaxing by the middle of next week, temperatures moderate for Tuesday and Wednesday. Another system providing precipitation chances arrives by the end of the forecast period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 NAM is 100% just a quick thump of 8-12 and is done. No changeover even in the southern portions of our sub forum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Actually as usual it depends what site you use it seems. It looks like agh county is the cut off point on some sites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 12 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: NAM is 100% just a quick thump of 8-12 and is done. No changeover even in the southern portions of our sub forum. I don't normally trust the NAM at range. It does show a potential outcome, however, where this is more of a frontal boundary system that moves through and ends without redevelopment. The GFS cranks that initial wave from Thursday as a 50/50. The NAM has less confluence. I will say I'm not sure if the NAM would actually be done when it cuts off, as it might still try and develop a secondary low offshore. Of course, it would probably be too late to give us more snow, but it could come down to timing. The Euro and its ensemble members are clearly favoring redevelopment, seems right around New Jersey, and that's part of the reason it has less of a rainy influence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 51 minutes ago, Mailman said: "This ends up putting the main transition zone along a very rough line from ZZV to PIT to IDI. This is where freezing rain/sleet may be most prominent, with mainly snow to the north, and more rain than snow to the south." 1 Golly... Can you just go another 20 miles or so to the south? lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Hopefully the ICON really sucks because it is a disaster for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Gfs not buying the euro yet. Not going to get too worked up since the euro was still solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 The low pressure location in south central va is pretty consistent with the other models. But it is way warmer for pretty much the entire state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 18Z Euro a slight tick north, more in-line with the Ukie. I realize it was relatively minor movement, but we don't have much more room to go in that direction. I suppose the relative consistency of the GFS since Monday shouldn't be discounted. I guess we'll see how the 0Z runs go, but any more northward shifting and we're in barney. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 18Z Euro a slight tick north, more in-line with the Ukie. I realize it was relatively minor movement, but we don't have much more room to go in that direction. I suppose the relative consistency of the GFS since Monday shouldn't be discounted. I guess we'll see how the 0Z runs go, but any more northward shifting and we're in barney.Where do you guys see the 6z and 18z runs of the Euro? I can only find the normal 0z and 12z runs.Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 9 minutes ago, jwilson said: 18Z Euro a slight tick north, more in-line with the Ukie. I realize it was relatively minor movement, but we don't have much more room to go in that direction. I suppose the relative consistency of the GFS since Monday shouldn't be discounted. I guess we'll see how the 0Z runs go, but any more northward shifting and we're in barney. Yeah I saw that.. Maybe just noise but every mile counts. Did 18z EPS come out yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, blackngoldrules said: Where do you guys see the 6z and 18z runs of the Euro? I can only find the normal 0z and 12z runs. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk I know https://truewx.com/products/weather-models/ has them. I usually just get them from the people that are posting them on the USA weather forum. I also think that Ryan Maue's website (www.weathermodels.com) has them as well. His website is pretty difficult to navigate though. Both you need to pay for 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Quite a few northernlies on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I think the big thing to remember from the 18z Euro is that we still don't really know how the version of this model performs. It only goes out to 90 hrs or so and is very new. Similar to how I put more stock into the 00z and 12z runs of the GFS and NAM. Not sure if there is any validity to what i just said, so take it for what it is worth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 EPS mean looks north. Didn’t picture that from the individual members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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