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Upstate/Eastern New York

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Amplified upper troughing that progresses from the central through northeastern states Mon-Wed along with the circulation behind the leading East Coast storm system (leading to a period of breezy to windy conditions) will bring much below normal temperatures from the central U.S. into the East during that time frame. Some highs may be at least 15-25F below normal while anomalies for morning lows may be only a few degrees less extreme. Eastern U.S. storm evolution that includes a wavy warm front lifting northeast from the Gulf of Mexico will likely bring areas of heavy rainfall from parts of the Gulf Coast northeastward. Extent/axis of cold sector snowfall will be sensitive to storm track. Currently expect the Appalachians/western New England and points westward to see the best potential for any snow. Cold cyclonic low level flow will support periods of lake effect snow behind the system. Late in the week a clipper system may bring some moisture to parts of the Great Lakes region. As the upper pattern broadens somewhat the cold temperatures over the East should moderate late in the week but still remain below normal.

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While I agree about the lake snows being all but dead for metro tomorrow the easterly track of the storm actually takes away any possibility of mixing or even rain at lower elevations Tuesday...AFD out of buffalo just mentioned that while the main storm will be hugging the coast it is the upper trough which will help drag the moisture back and create snow for Monday night and Tuesday...i still think Tuesday is 2 to 4 with a Genesee bonus of 5 in there but it's nit picky honestly

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18z??? If so just saw the snow forecast 10 to 1 ratio kbuf was 4" ksyr 10"...this has been incredibly consistent the last 24 hours. I'm liking what im seeing...also a bit surprised the WWA is still in effect for northern Erie as latest AFD states most potential for more than 4" is southern Erie and Northwestern Chautauqua.

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46 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

It would look better if the models didn't continuously warm us up lol They just don't want it to snow in the valley's or near L. Ontario..



So its gonna snow everywhere to the NW of the system except from KROC to Oswego, lol!  I'll believe that when I see that, actually happen.

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