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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

FWIW the euro and Canadian are on the warmish side for Tuesday storm, good track but verbatim a mix ..

I don't have the privilege of seeing the euro...is that mix in CNY or all NY???

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Gotta be honest the temp in Williamsville is still 33 and the radar and observations are showing moderate snow with the back edge of the precip almost upon us...not sure we ever see rain today and im curious about the warm wedge that's supposed to be here by 3 to 4pm. 

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Amazing how different it is about 500 to 600 feet higher than you, wolfie. I sit at about 1200 to 1300 feet here, and am working towards an inch. With the way it is snowing now, it will pile up quickly. Only thing not covered is driveway and under pine trees.

 

 

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9khwbg_conus.gif

9lhwbg_conus.gif

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Amplified upper troughing that progresses from the central through northeastern states Mon-Wed along with the circulation behind the leading East Coast storm system (leading to a period of breezy to windy conditions) will bring much below normal temperatures from the central U.S. into the East during that time frame. Some highs may be at least 15-25F below normal while anomalies for morning lows may be only a few degrees less extreme. Eastern U.S. storm evolution that includes a wavy warm front lifting northeast from the Gulf of Mexico will likely bring areas of heavy rainfall from parts of the Gulf Coast northeastward. Extent/axis of cold sector snowfall will be sensitive to storm track. Currently expect the Appalachians/western New England and points westward to see the best potential for any snow. Cold cyclonic low level flow will support periods of lake effect snow behind the system. Late in the week a clipper system may bring some moisture to parts of the Great Lakes region. As the upper pattern broadens somewhat the cold temperatures over the East should moderate late in the week but still remain below normal.

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Trends not looking good for the city and the LES band tonight/tomorrow, and the system next week looks to go further and further East with each run. 1-2" for Metro over the next 10 days looks likely. But it's November 9th and we're supposed to be around 50 still. 

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While I agree about the lake snows being all but dead for metro tomorrow the easterly track of the storm actually takes away any possibility of mixing or even rain at lower elevations Tuesday...AFD out of buffalo just mentioned that while the main storm will be hugging the coast it is the upper trough which will help drag the moisture back and create snow for Monday night and Tuesday...i still think Tuesday is 2 to 4 with a Genesee bonus of 5 in there but it's nit picky honestly

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