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Hoosier

Alberto remnants

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26 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

fwiw, no severe reports down south yet today.

Fairly comparable to the parameters that will be in place farther north tomorrow too.  Hmm..

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6 minutes ago, OHweather said:

Fairly comparable to the parameters that will be in place farther north tomorrow too.  Hmm..

Now watch tomorrow have like a dozen tornadoes lol

I think it is useful to see what's going on today, especially since the parameters are fairly similar tomorrow as you said. But subtle differences can sometimes result in drastically different outcomes.  I don't think there's much doubt that we're going to get bands of storms so the question comes down to severity.

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41 minutes ago, OHweather said:

Fairly comparable to the parameters that will be in place farther north tomorrow too.  Hmm..

I think the key for tomorrow is if the low does strengthen, if that happens the pressure falls will help immensely compared to today down there where the low is weakening.

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6 minutes ago, Stebo said:

I think the key for tomorrow is if the low does strengthen, if that happens the pressure falls will help immensely compared to today down there where the low is weakening.

Seems like the models have it relatively steady state.  It's ~998 mb right now and it looks to be about that pressure by this time tomorrow.

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Not sure what's going to happen here.  I could see anything from less than 1" to about 3-4" if that heavier core band on the western side of the low moves over. Extrapolating the cams would suggest that heavy band ends up around here.

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26 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Record May precipitable water at DTX is 1.96", ILX is 1.99" and ILN is 1.90".  All of these have a shot at being broken.  

I'll take the over on DTX for the 00z sounding tomorrow, ILX and ILN might be in between sounding launches.

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The 10pm cdt advisory from the WPC dropped the “sub” label and called it a good ol’ fashion tropical depression.  Some wind damage reported near the center into TN this evening so it’s held together impressively well since landfall. 

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40 minutes ago, OHweather said:

The 10pm cdt advisory from the WPC dropped the “sub” label and called it a good ol’ fashion tropical depression.  Some wind damage reported near the center into TN this evening so it’s held together impressively well since landfall. 

They actually bumped up the maximum sustained winds on this advisory.  A couple sites in KY/TN are gusting near 40 mph.  

 

Tropical Depression Alberto Advisory Number  20
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   AL012018
1000 PM CDT Tue May 29 2018

...CENTER OF ALBERTO MOVING OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE...
...HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.3N 87.5W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM WNW OF NASHVILLE TENNESSEE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Flash Flood Watches in effect for portions of Alabama, Georgia,
Tennessee, Kentucky, Illinois, Indiana, North and South Carolina,
Virginia and West Virginia.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Alberto
was located near latitude 36.3 North, longitude 87.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this
motion is expected to gradually increase.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated
higher amounts, will be possible from northern sections of
Alabama/Georgia northward across western and middle
Tennessee, Kentucky and southern Illinois. Heavy rain is also
forecast across the Appalachian Mountains from the Carolinas to
Virginia/West Virginia. Flash flooding and rapid water rises on
creeks and streams across these areas will remain a possibility
through the overnight.

WIND:  A few gusts to tropical-storm force are possible across
portions of middle and western Tennessee through the overnight.


For more information on rainfall totals please see the Storm Summary
available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.


Forecaster Hayes

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0300Z 36.3N  87.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  30/1200Z 38.4N  87.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 24H  31/0000Z 42.3N  86.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
 36H  31/1200Z 46.6N  83.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

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It's almost uncanny how similar the track is to the 1863 storm.  And practically the same days.  Might have to try to find some info on how the rest of 1863 went lol

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48 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

They actually bumped up the maximum sustained winds on this advisory.  A couple sites in KY/TN are gusting near 40 mph.  

 

Tropical Depression Alberto Advisory Number  20
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   AL012018
1000 PM CDT Tue May 29 2018

...CENTER OF ALBERTO MOVING OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE...
...HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.3N 87.5W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM WNW OF NASHVILLE TENNESSEE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Flash Flood Watches in effect for portions of Alabama, Georgia,
Tennessee, Kentucky, Illinois, Indiana, North and South Carolina,
Virginia and West Virginia.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Alberto
was located near latitude 36.3 North, longitude 87.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this
motion is expected to gradually increase.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated
higher amounts, will be possible from northern sections of
Alabama/Georgia northward across western and middle
Tennessee, Kentucky and southern Illinois. Heavy rain is also
forecast across the Appalachian Mountains from the Carolinas to
Virginia/West Virginia. Flash flooding and rapid water rises on
creeks and streams across these areas will remain a possibility
through the overnight.

WIND:  A few gusts to tropical-storm force are possible across
portions of middle and western Tennessee through the overnight.


For more information on rainfall totals please see the Storm Summary
available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.


Forecaster Hayes

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0300Z 36.3N  87.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  30/1200Z 38.4N  87.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 24H  31/0000Z 42.3N  86.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
 36H  31/1200Z 46.6N  83.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

It’ll be interesting to see what the gusts are Wednesday afternoon, especially just east of the center if some sun can poke through. 

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SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.7N 87.4W
ABOUT 80 MI...129 KM SW OF INDIANAPOLIS INDIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 24 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES

Pressure is falling as it approaches, down to 997

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12 hours ago, Stebo said:

I'll take the over on DTX for the 00z sounding tomorrow, ILX and ILN might be in between sounding launches.

ILX tied theirs with 1.99" observed on today's 12z sounding.  We'll see what DTX and ILN come in with tonight.

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This is fairly remarkable for late May, having an environment this far north that’s allowed Alberto to maintain well and transition to fully tropical while over land.  Can thank the weak/displaced jet for giving Alberto close to a barotropic environment overland and weak wind shear...which along with heat flux from the soil, enhanced by the month-long warmth, has allowed the storm to maintain its warm core and central convection for nearly 48 hours over land and counting.  The fun ends tonight as it interacts with the shortwave coming in from the upper Midwest.  Very unusual to see a legit TC over Indiana, and in May is obviously pretty mind blowing. 

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5 hours ago, OHweather said:

This is fairly remarkable for late May, having an environment this far north that’s allowed Alberto to maintain well and transition to fully tropical while over land.  Can thank the weak/displaced jet for giving Alberto close to a barotropic environment overland and weak wind shear...which along with heat flux from the soil, enhanced by the month-long warmth, has allowed the storm to maintain its warm core and central convection for nearly 48 hours over land and counting.  The fun ends tonight as it interacts with the shortwave coming in from the upper Midwest.  Very unusual to see a legit TC over Indiana, and in May is obviously pretty mind blowing. 

Yeah, it's still a pretty well defined system/swirl on satellite and radar. About the only thing lacking is that it has been dry and not wet lately in the Ohio Valley, so the "brown ocean" effect is reduced, but other than that it's been a good environment to allow it to maintain some organization.

g16_20180530_163228_02.thumb.jpg.af58863d7d11a90835129fb6c699784d.jpg

IMG_0145.JPG.2374a2795970bcd7ebdc56c801acc226.jpg.cb24462462ab9a479bd87d845a6b5f70.jpg

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6 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Yeah, it's still a pretty well defined system/swirl on satellite and radar. About the only thing lacking is that it has been dry and not wet lately in the Ohio Valley, so the "brown ocean" effect is reduced, but other than that it's been a good environment to allow it to maintain some organization.

g16_20180530_163228_02.thumb.jpg.af58863d7d11a90835129fb6c699784d.jpg

Right, could’ve maybe added a few more degrees to the dew points and enhanced the effect a bit more with some wetter soil. 

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Just went under a warning.

 

Quote

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
338 PM EDT WED MAY 30 2018

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Northwestern Clark County in west central Ohio...
  Northwestern Greene County in west central Ohio...
  Eastern Montgomery County in west central Ohio...
  Southeastern Miami County in west central Ohio...

* Until 430 PM EDT.

* At 338 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Kettering,
  moving north at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and power lines.

* Locations impacted include...
  Dayton, Kettering, Beavercreek, Huber Heights, Fairborn, Troy,
  Trotwood, Miamisburg, Vandalia, Englewood, Tipp City, Bellbrook,
  Moraine, New Carlisle, Oakwood, Wright-Patterson Afb, West
  Carrollton, Brown, Riverside and Clayton.

This includes the following Interstates...
I-70 in Ohio between mile markers 29 and 46.
I-75 in Ohio between mile markers 43 and 72.

 

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