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2018 General Severe Weather

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ICON, NAM and some other short range models showing some potential for wind damage tomorrow. Flooding too esp west. SPC shows non-severe storms but I wouldn't rule out a tornado warning or two along with severe thunderstorm warnings Georgia into the Carolina's. Be weather aware tomorrow. The shear is going to be high. 

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ATTN...I think areas north and east into the wedge may get hit hard too in this setup. I believe areas south and west near the upstate will be a breeding ground for organized structures to come overcome the CAD conditions. The main threat will be locally heavy rainfall with damaging wind...but the potential exists for isolated tornado activity. These spin ups could have an early start in the upstate into the foothills before moving down in elevation. 

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We'd be talking a greater threat if it weren't for the meager instability. Looks to be another case of a low CAPE/high shear event, but to be expected for this time of year, of course.

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day1otlk_20180123_0100_prt.gif

 

 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE TONIGHT
   ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong thunderstorms may impact the piedmont of the Carolinas and
   Virginia by late tonight, accompanied by at least some risk for
   severe weather.

   ...01Z Outlook Update...
   A 90-100+ kt cyclonic 500 mb jet over parts of the lower Ohio and
   Tennessee Valleys is expected to continue nosing eastward through
   the central Appalachians by 12Z Tuesday morning.  As it does, a
   fairly deep and occluding associated cyclone is forecast to migrate
   from parts of the Midwest into the lower Great Lakes region.

 

 ...Appalachians/Mid Atlantic Coast region...
   Of somewhat greater concern is the potential for at least a bit more
   substantive boundary layer moistening (surface dew points increasing
   to near 60f) off the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic into areas
   to the east of the central/southern Appalachians overnight.  Latest
   model output suggests that associated destabilization will coincide
   with strengthening of lower/mid tropospheric warm sector wind fields
   to 50-70 kt, and increasing synoptic forcing for ascent.  Although
   the thermodynamic environment overall still appears marginal, an
   increase in thunderstorm development seems increasingly probable
   across the piedmont of the Carolinas into Virginia by 09-12Z, which
   may be accompanied by at least some risk for potentially damaging
   wind gusts and perhaps a tornado.
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5 minutes ago, GrimReap3r said:

TOR Warning - Southern Wayne County near Mount Olive

Yeah basically right over Mt Olive.....storm is headed for the general Kinston area...a few other small cells with rotation west of this one as well.....one just south of Southern Pines looks like it could be a problem as well. 

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low top storms riding the warm front......wouldnt be surprised to see several more warnings voer the next 2-3 hrs....with the one south of Southern Pines being next they have put a severe thunderstorm warning on it but its got a fairly tight rotation with it.

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oh new storms firing closer to MBY.....reminds me of the day I had a tornado come within 200 yrds of my house back in Mar 2009.....very similar setup. 

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New warning on that eastern cell, looks pretty legit on radar gonna pass just south of Kinston, one just west of Fayetteville now also still holding onto a pretty good rotation....

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Until 430 PM EST

* At 356 PM EST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located 7 miles west of Fort Bragg, moving east at 30 mph.

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wouldnt be surprised to see a few ground truths between Mt Olive and Kinston.....Fayetteville cell fell apart but two small cells are rotating the one near Newton Grove is pretty tight and could get a warning soon, same with the La Grange one

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SPC mentioned a potential risk category upgrade for Monday in AL/GA/TN.


"Given the potential for significant severe storms, a categorical upgrade is possible in later outlooks once predictability increases and the centroid of severe coverage is better established."

If the NAM verified, it could be a MDT type event. Given what the GFS/ECMWF show, though, I'd bet on an Enhanced D1 Outlook issued late tomorrow evening/Mon morning.

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

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Well damn!!! :stun:

000
FXUS62 KFFC 180835
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
435 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018

 

As vigorous shortwave moves east over TN valley, broad and
unusually strong westerly flow to the south remains in place. In
my experience with severe weather forecasts both here and in the
southern plains, this pattern has a great deal of potential to
produce atypically high instability and very strong deep vertical
wind shear with supercells the dominant mode. It has been over a
year since this area has seen supercell storms of this magnitude
(Jan 22 2017). Large hail and a few tornadoes will be likely.
Given MLCAPE values 2000-2500 J/kg and 0-6km bulk shear of
60-70kts, hail will likely be much larger than the Jan 2017 event
with sizes of 2 to 3 inches likely. If there is a bright side to
this story, it could be the low level shear, 0-1km bulk shear is
only progged of 30-35kts. This is still quite strong and should be
sufficient for a few tornadoes, but unlikely to see the larger
/long-tracked tornadoes that we saw with the Jan 2017 event or
other notable supercell-based tornado events and outbreaks.
Interestingly, CIPS top 15 analogs based on 00Z NAM valid 00Z Tue
do not contain any events in the last 10 years, so could be some
analogs with lower storm report density and thus lower analog
probabilities. Top analogs is Apr 3 1998 which produced widespread
hail over north GA but other dates have hit or miss coverage of
reports and not too many tornado events though there area some.


Other bright side of supercell events is that coverage/probability
of any point seeing severe storms will be lower than with linear
events. Not something you want to take a chance on however, plan
accordingly. Have kept PoPs closer to guidance and perhaps lower
with mainly 40-60pct Monday afternoon and evening.

Will certainly keep a close watch on this and will continue with
steady pace of impact briefings.

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1 hour ago, Powerball said:

Well damn!!! :stun:

000
FXUS62 KFFC 180835
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
435 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018

 

As vigorous shortwave moves east over TN valley, broad and
unusually strong westerly flow to the south remains in place. In
my experience with severe weather forecasts both here and in the
southern plains, this pattern has a great deal of potential to
produce atypically high instability and very strong deep vertical
wind shear with supercells the dominant mode. It has been over a
year since this area has seen supercell storms of this magnitude
(Jan 22 2017). Large hail and a few tornadoes will be likely.
Given MLCAPE values 2000-2500 J/kg and 0-6km bulk shear of
60-70kts, hail will likely be much larger than the Jan 2017 event
with sizes of 2 to 3 inches likely. If there is a bright side to
this story, it could be the low level shear, 0-1km bulk shear is
only progged of 30-35kts. This is still quite strong and should be
sufficient for a few tornadoes, but unlikely to see the larger
/long-tracked tornadoes that we saw with the Jan 2017 event or
other notable supercell-based tornado events and outbreaks.
Interestingly, CIPS top 15 analogs based on 00Z NAM valid 00Z Tue
do not contain any events in the last 10 years, so could be some
analogs with lower storm report density and thus lower analog
probabilities. Top analogs is Apr 3 1998 which produced widespread
hail over north GA but other dates have hit or miss coverage of
reports and not too many tornado events though there area some.


Other bright side of supercell events is that coverage/probability
of any point seeing severe storms will be lower than with linear
events. Not something you want to take a chance on however, plan
accordingly. Have kept PoPs closer to guidance and perhaps lower
with mainly 40-60pct Monday afternoon and evening.

Will certainly keep a close watch on this and will continue with
steady pace of impact briefings.

Welcome to Dixie Alley man. 

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ww0017_radar.gif.ba5c58600ce7c2343d8bf4adea50f410.gif

SEL7

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 17
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1020 AM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Northern and central Florida
     Far southeast Georgia
     Coastal Waters

   * Effective this Tuesday morning and evening from 1020 AM until
     700 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
     Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
       to 2.5 inches in diameter possible
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

   SUMMARY...Scattered severe storms are expected through this
   afternoon, capable of producing tornadoes, large hail, and damaging
   winds.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles
   either side of a line from 60 miles west northwest of Jacksonville
   FL to 35 miles west southwest of Avon Park FL. For a complete
   depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
   (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.

   &&

   AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
   surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
   gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
   storm motion vector 26035.

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ww0018_radar.gif.c1e68410d8b780c93cf6c64a0081fd9c.gif

SEL8

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 18
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1240 PM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Southeast Georgia
     Coastal South Carolina
     Coastal Waters

   * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 1240 PM until
     700 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
       inches in diameter possible
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

   SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous storms are expected to develop
   across the coastal plain this afternoon ahead of a cold front. Some
   of these should be severe with a risk for tornadoes, large hail, and
   damaging wind.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles
   east and west of a line from 35 miles south southeast of Waycross GA
   to 55 miles north northeast of Charleston SC. For a complete
   depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
   (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 17...

   AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
   surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
   gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
   storm motion vector 25035.

   ...Grams

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Couple of nasty tor warned cells in south central Florida...if they hold up to the coast it will hit Ft Pierce and Port St Lucie which are pretty populated areas.

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Looks like there is a pretty potent looking storm offshore between Fort Myers and Naples.  It would probably be coming onshore around the Naples area or perhaps south of there.

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