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Tn Valley Severe Weather 2018-19

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52 minutes ago, Buckethead said:

Caught this hail shaft over Erwin, TN around 530 today.

 

Mountains make such cool pics when storms roll over them

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Maybe we'll  see a shelf today

 

 Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1115 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

   Valid 211630Z - 221200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   MISSOURI...ILLINOIS...WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY...AND MIDDLE
   TENNESSEE...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
   CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe storms capable of damaging winds are expected to affect the
   mid Mississippi, Lower Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys.  Other severe
   storms may occur over parts of eastern Colorado and the Dakotas.

   ...Middle MS Valley into TN...
   A long-lived mature linear MCS is tracking across eastern MO into
   western IL.  This activity has resulted in several reports of
   damaging winds, and will likely persist through the afternoon as it
   moves into portions of IN and northern KY.  The air mass will become
   progressively less unstable farther east, so it is unclear how far
   up the Ohio valley the damaging wind threat will persist.  But due
   to uncertainties and the significant mesoscale organization of the
   system, have expanded the MRGL/SLGT risk areas farther east into
   central/eastern Kentucky.

   A second mature linear MCS over western MO is immediately following
   the first, and has also produced several reports of wind damage. 
   This line appears to be taking a slightly more southerly trajectory,
   and is tapping a very moist and very unstable air mass.  It appears
   likely that this MCS will become dominant through the day and track
   across parts of southern MO, southern IL and eventually into KY/TN. 
   Have expanded the ENH risk eastward into these regions to account
   for this scenario.  It is unclear how far southeast this activity
   will maintain severe intensity.  However, based on a few CAM
   solutions, have extended SLGT risk to the mountains of east TN for
   tonight.

 

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Should be a Friday night gem. Hope it rolls down I-24 all the way to Chattanooga. Enhanced is probably the right call. We lack the ingredients for Moderate. 

No 500 mb short-wave or height falls helps avoid the D-word. In fact 500 mb is neutral to slightly rising. Still we have all kinds of WAA at 700/850 mb from the southwest to feed the beast. How about those MEM surface obs? Yeah the scientific word for that is gross, lol! It's evidence of great instability. However it's capped until the MCS arrives.

Another MCS is forecast Saturday, but I'm thinking this first one will be the best. Pure undisturbed airmass is ready to rumble.

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This sucker is hauling it. 1 - 2 hours ahead of HRRR.  Always liked MCSs as long as they don't have a ton of wind. As MRX mentioned, HRRR has been more consistent with at least timing, while other models like NAM and RGEM have already lost it entirely. HRRR gives the northern limb a boost as it swings through KY and TN, will be interesting to see if, regardless of timing, this predicted aspect of it develops. Radar looks auspicious for that, as of now. 

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That cell definitely looks stout on satellite:

giphy.gif 

 

The setup is interesting to me since there seem to be 2 lines of more intense convection with one? MCS (colder cloud tops and radar are how I'm distinguishing that) that seem to merge over the OH river on the KY and IL border. I've seen this before with two distinct bows and a gap in the middle  and always wondered what the cause for that was. 

giphy.gif 

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Forgot to post this video I shot at my house in Halls. It was that northern most cell in Knox Co.




.

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Here’s a few pic I took. The last photo looks like it could have been a wall cloud or possibly a funnel.
9166048f2f5f644c738ae818a9096be9.jpg259743e0cab92c09d03ef8a7fe966711.jpg2bb13b86a498cf1c5fcd454acbfdffa8.jpg


.

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There seems to be more imbedded cell structures from I-40 north moving onto the plateau. MRX was talking about a boundary, like a warm front draped across the valley and I’m wondering if it will add more shear to the line?


.

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Powerful storms here and I imagine across the area.  Virtually all of Campbell Co is without power right now. Trees are down everywhere. One fell on a car as it was driving. Just a fast moving bull dozer. It made it across the county in 10 minutes. 

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8 hours ago, John1122 said:

Powerful storms here and I imagine across the area.  Virtually all of Campbell Co is without power right now. Trees are down everywhere. One fell on a car as it was driving. Just a fast moving bull dozer. It made it across the county in 10 minutes. 

 

Thankfully, the power only flickered for a few seconds at my place. I did hear a tree fall on my property during the storm.

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HRW did well this morning in Middle Tn,it showed the system weaken  and break up before it got to Nashville.Weather Channel even showed a shelf North of Nashville this morning.Looks like a MCS coming from the Mo/Valley and lower OV is fixing to swing through later on,seen the SPC is fixing to throw up a possible T-Storm watch up soon.HRRR looks contaminated showing some PW's 2.35",should though see some potential strong storms  as it seems to be hitting some better capes getting into Tn

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Been awhile since we've seen these type MCS's come through in the summer time, unusual for us in the Valley.We certainly have not seen this in years.Looks like the pattern finally breaks down the first part of the work week then returns with more diurnal rain towards the end of the work week maybe.least this is what the Euro looks like

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Storms fell apart in our area but they did hit the OFB in the SW Valley,some good storms going on down S/West and South of us

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Really hope we can catch a break with the storms tomorrow. This has been the year of downed trees. Ground is extra saturated from non-stop rain and tree loss is increased significantly in these severe thunderstorms.  

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11 hours ago, John1122 said:

Really hope we can catch a break with the storms tomorrow. This has been the year of downed trees. Ground is extra saturated from non-stop rain and tree loss is increased significantly in these severe thunderstorms.  

Models were showing a drying period this week now it's not looking so dry,Looks more diurnal though after today,no big system like the past,right now anyways.

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The SPC did upgrade to a slight risk for much of the eastern TN Valley including an enhanced risk for the northeastern portion.

Quote
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0243 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019
Valid 242000Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AREA SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AREA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE ENH RISK AREA...ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/NORTHERN ILLINOIS VICINITY...

...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms capable of damaging winds will continue to evolve over the central/southern Appalachians and Ohio Valley today. Other more isolated severe activity may yet occur over northern Illinois/southern Wisconsin and vicinity, and is expected to develop in the next couple of hours over west-central/southwest Texas.

...Discussion... Convection continues to evolve this afternoon as anticipated; with reasoning communicated in prior outlooks still appearing valid at this time, no outlook changes are needed. ..Goss.. 06/24/2019
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019/
...Central/Southern Appalachians... Morning satellite and radar imagery show a well-defined remnant MCV over southern KY. This trough is embedded with a larger upper trough rotating across the OH/TN valleys. The air mass ahead of the feature is heating rapidly and will become very unstable by mid-afternoon. Strengthening midlevel winds, coupled with strong instability and affects of the MCV will pose a more substantial risk of bowing thunderstorm structures capable of damaging wind gusts. A few supercells cannot be ruled out, along with a risk of isolated tornadoes. Therefore have upgraded much of WV and vicinity to an ENH risk and 30% severe wind probabilities.

...AL/GA... A very warm/humid air mass remains in place today over this region with strong CAPE values expected. Most 12z CAM solutions suggest pockets of afternoon thunderstorm development, although models differ on placement and timing. Those storms that form will pose a risk of strong/damaging wind gusts.

b0aec9177931b464bedbb1f64a4088f9.gif

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Strong storms moved through TYS and MRX but most things have calmed down and seem rather tame at the moment.

 

 

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Tornado warning north of Knoxville. Rotation/strong winds moving towards Maynardville.89c8117b3a9a18657ee70840d3226a49.gif&key=c9d23d284b25d1119a0970da999561abee87e2543fd31583c6cbe041ccf23a98


It’s crazy that Knoxville area has had 2 tornado warnings in less than a week at the end of June. The one Thursday afternoon was on top of me. The one today was 5 miles or so north.


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4 hours ago, PowellVolz said:

 


It’s crazy that Knoxville area has had 2 tornado warnings in less than a week at the end of June. The one Thursday afternoon was on top of me. The one today was 5 miles or so north.


.

 

June is generally a quiet month,then gets even more so the next couple months.

 

http://www.ustornadoes.com/2016/04/06/annual-and-monthly-tornado-averages-across-the-united-states/

 

 

 

 

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MCS dropped down from Kansas into the the Valley today has been showing signs of tropical genesis into the Northern gulf for a few days.We'll have to keep an eye out the next few days,could be some decent rains upcoming anyways for some especially the Eastern Valley ,but alot of uncertainty right now for tornado potential and the track it takes

 

 

ecmwf_mslp_uv850_us_fh144-192.gif

AwesomeScreenshot-Atlantic-5-Day-Graphical-Tropical-Weather-Outlook-2019-07-06-15-07-34.png

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