TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 That energy driving down the backside at 5h has sort of congealed vs kicked as it did in previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 the 00z GFS produces over 2' of snow for CHH, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, sbos_wx said: It seems almost as if the slower intensification allows for this to be captured into the upper level trof more efficiently My money is on a low 960's system as it passes us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: The lest northern stream interaction the better. Keep trending that trough over the Great Lakes weaker and weaker and let the southern stream do its thing. Yeah let it ride up the east side...rather than kicking it east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 GFS and Euro now in pretty good agreement. The Euro was super stingy back this way at 12z... a definite jump up at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: the 00z GFS produces upwards of 2' of snow for ORH, Thank me later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: My money is on a low 960's system as it passes us. I'll take the under <960mb. Seems to be delayed but not denied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah let it ride up the east side...rather than kicking it east. Exactly. The key going forward is less northern stream and more insane latent heat release over the Gulf Stream pumping up that downstream ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 That's a sick, disgusting, obnoxious mid level fronto look from cape ann, bos, south shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Where does it pop the low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah let it ride up the east side...rather than kicking it east. 00z EURO matches my first call map perfectly now...deform from ORH to KEV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, sbos_wx said: That's a sick, disgusting, obnoxious mid level fronto look from cape ann, bos, south shore. Nice pivot in E MA on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: 00z EURO matches my first call map perfectly now...deform from ORH to KEV. It looks SE of that. Maybe ORH to KEV at its' furthest extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The deformation axis on this Euro run is pretty tasty. It's just about maxed from MTP to MLT at 18z Thursday. Cold side of the axis within the best f-gen says congrats dendrite of course. That's a healthy shift west in the forcing from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: That's a sick, disgusting, obnoxious mid level fronto look from cape ann, bos, south shore. Banding there is more low level convergence imo...mid level death band is west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Some mid level goods pretty far NW too I'd imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, OceanStWx said: The deformation axis on this Euro run is pretty tasty. It's just about maxed from MTP to MLT at 18z Thursday. Cold side of the axis within the best f-gen says congrats dendrite of course. That's a healthy shift west in the forcing from 12z. Was just thinking that based on the H5-H7 look. Can't be too much of a QPF queen here because that's not an awful look for us here in Death Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, OceanStWx said: The deformation axis on this Euro run is pretty tasty. It's just about maxed from MTP to MLT at 18z Thursday. Cold side of the axis within the best f-gen says congrats dendrite of course. That's a healthy shift west in the forcing from 12z. Thought so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Banding there is more low level convergence imo...mid level death band is west. I'm looking at 7h. It would be best for us versus west. Maybe I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Banding there is more low level convergence imo...mid level death band is west. Yeah the 700 is over ORH to CON back into CT...though the forcing to the east is hellecious...you get some higher stakes out west...could end up under a delicious band but you might miss it and suck on exhaust and fight some drier intrusion from NW ageostrophic flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, sbos_wx said: I'm looking at 7h. It would be best for us versus west. Maybe I'm wrong. I could be mistaken....its late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Was just thinking that based on the H5-H7 look. Can't be too much of a QPF queen here because that's not an awful look for us here in Death Valley. 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Thought so. It's one of the better banding signatures I've seen from the coarse as hell 80 km NWS bootleg Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah the 700 is over ORH to CON back into CT...though the forcing to the east is hellecious...you get some higher stakes out west...could end up under a delicious band but you might miss it and suck on exhaust and fight some drier intrustion from NW ageostrophic flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah the 700 is over ORH to CON back into CT...though the forcing to the east is hellecious...you get some higher stakes out west...could end up under a delicious band but you might miss it and suck on exhaust and fight some drier intrusion from NW ageostrophic flow. Thanks...half asleep, so though I may have missed something. Shouldn't be too muh exhaust each of H7, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Thanks...half asleep, so though I may have missed something. Shouldn't be too muh exhaust each of H7, no? Eh, it depends...there was def exhaust west of the ORH band in 2015. It doesn't mean you get a boxing day type disaster, because we aren't anywhere near a dryslot like in that 2010 storm...but it can give you some local minima. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah the 700 is over ORH to CON back into CT...though the forcing to the east is hellecious...you get some higher stakes out west...could end up under a delicious band but you might miss it and suck on exhaust and fight some drier intrusion from NW ageostrophic flow. I wouldn't take it verbatim, but the 3km NAM shows a double barrel band with some exhaust in between (actually screws PWM a little). I would say that it's a real threat given a hi-res model showing that solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Eh, it depends...there was def exhaust west of the ORH band in 2015. It doesn't mean you get a boxing day type disaster, because we aren't anywhere near a dryslot like in that 2010 storm...but it can give you some local minima. I mean east of it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: I wouldn't take it verbatim, but the 3km NAM shows a double barrel band with some exhaust in between (actually screws PWM a little). I would say that it's a real threat given a hi-res model showing that solution. Exhaust is over ne MA, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Exhaust is over ne MA, right? Not so bad there, because you get in on the initial WAA thump. It really impacts the later stages of the storm for NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Not so bad there, because you get in on the initial WAA thump. It really impacts the later stages of the storm for NNE. I think I personally would have rather the 12z EURO, but this was expected. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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