bluewave Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 I put together a collection of the top 10 snowstorms from Newark to Islip since 1950. This is when the NAO data became regularly available. Nearly all the events at our 5 major climate sites occurred following a -NAO. The lowest NAO readings were included up to 10 days before the events. The few exceptions to the pattern were in 2013,2015, and January 1978. February 2013 featured a very strong STJ following the early El Nino development which faded out in the fall. January 2015 and 1978 were during a weak El Nino. So on a few occasions the strong STJ was able to overcome the +NAO. Also notice how many storms have happened during our recent historic run. http://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.nao.index.b500101.current.ascii NYC 27.5...1-24-16....-0.890 26.9...2-12-06....-0.537 20.9...2-26-10....-1.299 20.2..1-8-96......-.1.719 20.0...12-27-10...-1.533 19.8...2-17-03...+0.654 19.0...1-27-11....-0.944 17.7...2-7-78.....-0.865 17.6...2-12-83...-0.690 17.4...2-4-61.....-0.126 EWR 27.8...1-8-96.....-1.719 24.3...1-23-16....-0.890 24.2...12-27-10..-1.533 22.6...2-4-61......-0.126 22.3...2-17-03....+0.654 21.3..2-12.-06....-0.537 20.4...12-12-60...-0.078 19.0...2-7-78......-0.865 18.9...1-27-11...-0.944 18.2...3-19-56...-0.225 JFK 30.5...1-24-16...-0.890 25.8...2-17-03...+0.654 24.1...2-4-61....-0.126 21.7...2-12-83...-0.690 20.7...1-8-96....-1.719 20.2...2-10-69...-0.678 18.1...2-5-61....-0.126 16.7...2-12-06...-0.537 15.6...12-27-10...-1.533 14.5...12-20-09...-2.111 LGA 28.2...1-24-16...-0.890 25.4...2-12-06...-0.537 23.8...1-8-96...-1.719 22.0...2-12-83...-0.690 19.0...2-5-61...-0.126 17.3...1-27-11...-0.944 16.5...2-17-03..+0.654 16.1...2-10-69...-0.678 15.3...3-4-60....-1.095 14.9...12-20-95..-1.581 ISP 27.8...2-9-13....+0.219 25.9...2-7-78....-0.865 24.9...1-27-15...+0.235 23.9...12-20-09...-2.111 23.7...1-24-16...-0.890 20.1...2-12-83...-0.690 19.9...2-12-06...-0.537 17.8..1-20-78...+0.234 17.0...1-8-96...-1.719 17.0...2-10-69...-0.678 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 6 hours ago, bluewave said: I put together a collection of the top 10 snowstorms from Newark to Islip since 1950. This is when the NAO data became regularly available. Nearly all the events at our 5 major climate sites occurred following a -NAO. The lowest NAO readings were included up to 10 days before the events. The few exceptions to the pattern were in 2013,2015, and January 1978. February 2013 featured a very strong STJ following the early El Nino development which faded out in the fall. January 2015 and 1978 were during a weak El Nino. So on a few occasions the strong STJ was able to overcome the +NAO. Also notice how many storms have happened during our recent historic run. http://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.nao.index.b500101.current.ascii NYC 27.5...1-24-16....-0.890 26.9...2-12-06....-0.537 20.9...2-26-10....-1.299 20.2..1-8-96......-.1.719 20.0...12-27-10...-1.533 19.8...2-17-03...+0.654 19.0...1-27-11....-0.944 17.7...2-7-78.....-0.865 17.6...2-12-83...-0.690 17.4...2-4-61.....-0.126 EWR 27.8...1-8-96.....-1.719 24.3...1-23-16....-0.890 24.2...12-27-10..-1.533 22.6...2-4-61......-0.126 22.3...2-17-03....+0.654 21.3..2-12.-06....-0.537 20.4...12-12-60...-0.078 19.0...2-7-78......-0.865 18.9...1-27-11...-0.944 18.2...3-19-56...-0.225 JFK 30.5...1-24-16...-0.890 25.8...2-17-03...+0.654 24.1...2-4-61....-0.126 21.7...2-12-83...-0.690 20.7...1-8-96....-1.719 20.2...2-10-69...-0.678 18.1...2-5-61....-0.126 16.7...2-12-06...-0.537 15.6...12-27-10...-1.533 14.5...12-20-09...-2.111 LGA 28.2...1-24-16...-0.890 25.4...2-12-06...-0.537 23.8...1-8-96...-1.719 22.0...2-12-83...-0.690 19.0...2-5-61...-0.126 17.3...1-27-11...-0.944 16.5...2-17-03..+0.654 16.1...2-10-69...-0.678 15.3...3-4-60....-1.095 14.9...12-20-95..-1.581 ISP 27.8...2-9-13....+0.219 25.9...2-7-78....-0.865 24.9...1-27-15...+0.235 23.9...12-20-09...-2.111 23.7...1-24-16...-0.890 20.1...2-12-83...-0.690 19.9...2-12-06...-0.537 17.8..1-20-78...+0.234 17.0...1-8-96...-1.719 17.0...2-10-69...-0.678 From what I see here, in central NJ, we need a neg NAO for a big storm. The storms that were not during that phase busted here but delivered to CT and LI. Seems clear evidence to me. Of course, anything is possible I guess. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 6 hours ago, bluewave said: I put together a collection of the top 10 snowstorms from Newark to Islip since 1950. This is when the NAO data became regularly available. Nearly all the events at our 5 major climate sites occurred following a -NAO. The lowest NAO readings were included up to 10 days before the events. The few exceptions to the pattern were in 2013,2015, and January 1978. February 2013 featured a very strong STJ following the early El Nino development which faded out in the fall. January 2015 and 1978 were during a weak El Nino. So on a few occasions the strong STJ was able to overcome the +NAO. Also notice how many storms have happened during our recent historic run. http://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.nao.index.b500101.current.ascii NYC 27.5...1-24-16....-0.890 26.9...2-12-06....-0.537 20.9...2-26-10....-1.299 20.2..1-8-96......-.1.719 20.0...12-27-10...-1.533 19.8...2-17-03...+0.654 19.0...1-27-11....-0.944 17.7...2-7-78.....-0.865 17.6...2-12-83...-0.690 17.4...2-4-61.....-0.126 EWR 27.8...1-8-96.....-1.719 24.3...1-23-16....-0.890 24.2...12-27-10..-1.533 22.6...2-4-61......-0.126 22.3...2-17-03....+0.654 21.3..2-12.-06....-0.537 20.4...12-12-60...-0.078 19.0...2-7-78......-0.865 18.9...1-27-11...-0.944 18.2...3-19-56...-0.225 JFK 30.5...1-24-16...-0.890 25.8...2-17-03...+0.654 24.1...2-4-61....-0.126 21.7...2-12-83...-0.690 20.7...1-8-96....-1.719 20.2...2-10-69...-0.678 18.1...2-5-61....-0.126 16.7...2-12-06...-0.537 15.6...12-27-10...-1.533 14.5...12-20-09...-2.111 LGA 28.2...1-24-16...-0.890 25.4...2-12-06...-0.537 23.8...1-8-96...-1.719 22.0...2-12-83...-0.690 19.0...2-5-61...-0.126 17.3...1-27-11...-0.944 16.5...2-17-03..+0.654 16.1...2-10-69...-0.678 15.3...3-4-60....-1.095 14.9...12-20-95..-1.581 ISP 27.8...2-9-13....+0.219 25.9...2-7-78....-0.865 24.9...1-27-15...+0.235 23.9...12-20-09...-2.111 23.7...1-24-16...-0.890 20.1...2-12-83...-0.690 19.9...2-12-06...-0.537 17.8..1-20-78...+0.234 17.0...1-8-96...-1.719 17.0...2-10-69...-0.678 Chris, changing from one phase to the other is probably the most important factor. Didn't PD2 occur during a +NAO? But it had switched just a few days before the storm? 2002-03 wasn't a very NEG NAO winter was it? But we had many switches between phases, which is what made it so stormy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 20, 2017 Author Share Posted December 20, 2017 44 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: From what I see here, in central NJ, we need a neg NAO for a big storm. The storms that were not during that phase busted here but delivered to CT and LI. Seems clear evidence to me. Of course, anything is possible I guess. Yeah, PHL was similar to the NYC Metro and LI stations. The only top 10 snowstorm without a -NAO since 1950 was PD2. PHL 31.0...1-8-96.....-1.719 28.5...2-6-10......-0.985 23.2..12-20-09...-2.111 22.4...1-24-16....-0.890 21.3...2-12-83....-0.690 18.7...2-17-03...+0.654 15.8...2-12-06...-0.537 15.1..1-27-11...-0.944 14.6..12-12-60..-0.078 14.3...2-19-79...-0.633 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 20, 2017 Author Share Posted December 20, 2017 43 minutes ago, Paragon said: Chris, changing from one phase to the other is probably the most important factor. Didn't PD2 occur during a +NAO? But it had switched just a few days before the storm? 2002-03 wasn't a very NEG NAO winter was it? But we had many switches between phases, which is what made it so stormy. Yeah, we have had top 10 storms near the changes and in the middle of -NAO events. 2002-2003 was interesting in that the -NAO was mostly front-loaded into December and the first week of January. PD2 was unique since it occurred during a +NAO run that began during the second week of January. But we had the El Nino STJ along with a strong -EPO block. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, we have had top 10 events near the changes and in the middle of -NAO events. 2002-2003 was interesting in that the -NAO was mostly front-loaaded into December and the first week of January. PD2 was unique in that it occurred during a +NAO run that began during the second week of January. But we had the El Nino STJ along with a strong -EPO block. That's right and we had a pretty significant storm before PD2 but it gets lost because of the historic nature of what came after. The Pre-PD2 storm dumped 9 inches of snow, I think? What did we have for the April 2003 snowstorm? -NAO? That was another big one, I would consider it historic for us in Nassau County considering it was April. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 20, 2017 Author Share Posted December 20, 2017 6 minutes ago, Paragon said: That's right and we had a pretty significant storm before PD2 but it gets lost because of the historic nature of what came after. The Pre-PD2 storm dumped 9 inches of snow, I think? What did we have for the April 2003 snowstorm? -NAO? That was another big one, I would consider it historic for us in Nassau County considering it was April. That April 2003 snowstorm happened just a few days after a brief -NAO drop. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 the pna is just as important...the only storm I found with a negative pna that was 8" plus from DCA to Boston was the March 1960 storm... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 2 hours ago, bluewave said: That April 2003 snowstorm happened just a few days after a brief -NAO drop. I think the Xmas 2002 storm also had a neg nao? That was a nice surprise for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 4 hours ago, bluewave said: Yeah, we have had top 10 storms near the changes and in the middle of -NAO events. 2002-2003 was interesting in that the -NAO was mostly front-loaded into December and the first week of January. PD2 was unique since it occurred during a +NAO run that began during the second week of January. But we had the El Nino STJ along with a strong -EPO block. Much different synoptic setup than our typical blockbusters too. Wasn't PDII essentially just a humongous overrunning event? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 It would be cool to see a larger sample size, and also time of year. My guess is NAO is very important for NYC, 2:1 to 3:1 for snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 PD II is one unique way to get a big storm in this coming pattern. There's definitely support building from the 27-30th for a big overrunning storm. +NAO/-PNA but with a strongly -EPO/WPO. Could be interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 20, 2017 Author Share Posted December 20, 2017 While it's still mostly -NAO, the storms that just missed the top ten since 2000 in NYC included 3 +NAO events. These were the 10-14 inch snowfalls. 14.0...12-6-03...-0.197 13.8...1-23-05...+0.204 13.3..1-26-11...-9.444 12.5...2-14-14...+0.680 12.0...12-31-00...-1.227 11.5...1-22-14...-0.529 11.4...2-9-13...+0.219 10.9...12-20-09...-2.111 10.3...1-28-04...-1.449 10.0...2-11-10..-1.202 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 20, 2017 Author Share Posted December 20, 2017 With the 6 to just under 10 inch storms in NYC since 2000, there was an increase to 5-6 +NAO storms. 9.8...1-27-15...+0.235 9.4...2-10-17...+0.290 9.1...1-12-11....-1.909 8.3...3-2-09...+0.502 8.0...2-4-14...+0.246 7.7...3-1-05...-1.379 7.6...3-15-17...-0.164...note...the NAO was only briefly negative and mostly positive before the storm...This allowed the record snowfall for the interior but not the coast 7.5...3-6-15...+0.619 6.3...1-7-17...-0.774 6.0...2-23-08...-0.422 6.0...2-25-05...-1.379 6.0...12-6-02...-1.385 6.0...1-22-01...-0.438 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 18 hours ago, Eduardo said: Much different synoptic setup than our typical blockbusters too. Wasn't PDII essentially just a humongous overrunning event? Yeah, it was a long duration overrunning event. Great combination of El Nino STJ and -EPO generated very strong Arctic high to our north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Yeah, it was a long duration overrunning event. Great combination of El Nino STJ and -EPO generated very strong Arctic high to our north. Wasn't Feb 1983 the same thing? Those are our biggest storms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 20 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: It would be cool to see a larger sample size, and also time of year. My guess is NAO is very important for NYC, 2:1 to 3:1 for snow. There are some outlier winters like 1993-94 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 36 minutes ago, Paragon said: Wasn't Feb 1983 the same thing? Those are our biggest storms! Pretty sure 83 was a coastal. Would love a Feb 94 repeat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Pretty sure 83 was a coastal. Would love a Feb 94 repeat Both, right, back to back? I mean PD2 was a coastal too, I think both were part overrunning and part coastal, that's why they lasted for two days lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 14 minutes ago, Paragon said: Both, right, back to back? I mean PD2 was a coastal too, I think both were part overrunning and part coastal, that's why they lasted for two days lol. 83 was relatively quick I think. About 18-24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 bump 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now