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If the Nam is anywhere near correct, we snow, then we rain, not hard, from Friday night through Saturday, which would definitely wipe out what falls Friday cause they'll be some sort of fog or mist or both, so the snowpack would get decimated but just with the GFS, an American model, I don't believe it!

GFS's snowfall map

gfs_3hr_snow_acc_neng_49.thumb.png.a8d9106c4fd30a81b36522683512dd01.png

But I gotta say, Nam's map looks pretty good, this is before the Christmas Miracle storm.

nam_3hr_snow_acc_ne_29.thumb.png.4931fa14a55998d50fa08a0919fbaff9.png

2 days ago we were worried about a brown Christmas and now we're wondering how much snow we'll get, lol!

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3 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

If the Nam is anywhere near correct, then we rain, not hard, from Friday night through Saturday, which would definitely wipe out what falls Friday cause they'll be some sort of fog or mist or both so the snowpack would get decimated but just with the GFS, an American model, I don't believe it!

KBUF says winds will veer to the SE on Sat. This won't be good at all. Again, if we can stay NE with just enough cold air N of the lake, we may be able to stay frozen.

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Right now the only model that has snow wire to wire for the immediate CNY are a is the EURO with highest 2MT getting to 32-33.  Don't know about above that layer as I haven't checked soundings but I still think the So Tier turns over to plain rain with the transition in between somewhere, sorry guys!

I actually saved this image because I don't ever think KBGM has issued Advisories before KBUF, lol!  This is bizarre as they don't even know if any will be needed, lol!

buf.png.56d29be1618f5ea9b80efbf34b8fec1d.png

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With respect to winter weather headlines...based on the potential
for freezing rain/light icing across the Southern Tier tonight into
Friday...a Winter Weather Advisory will be issued for Chautauqua...
Cattaraugus...and Allegany counties with this morning`s forecast
package. Elsewhere some additional headlines may also eventually
become necessary for the Friday-Saturday time frame (particularly
across the North Country)...though for now we have elected to hold
off on these in favor of a continued mention in our Hazardous Weather
Outlook.

 

 

Current model evolution and pattern recognition
suggest an initial southwesterly to westerly flow turning westerly
to northwesterly...with ample background synoptic moisture and lift
available as shortwaves rotate around the mean trough. Coupled with
high capping inversion heights...the above suggests the potential
for high snowfall rates.
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How do they not think we wont need at least Advisories for snow up this way? What about tomorrow mornings commute, unless the majority of PPl are off, because Christmas falls on a Monday this yr so many may be taking the day off, but that still doesn't make sense as they'll be ppl everywhere grabbing last minute gifts this weekend so travel will become treacherous especially in around Syracuse because of Destiny!

No hesitation from KBGM!

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Could see a “white Christmas “ regardless of what happens xmas..


This said...based on the latest
track of this system the axis of the heaviest rainfall may actually tend
to align across more areas immediately to our southeast instead of
directly over our region...which may result in a lower potential for
hydrologic concerns than had been previously thought.

 

Saturday night the surface low will exit out across the New England
states. In conjunction with developing cold air advection on the
backside of this system...this should result in the synoptic rains
mixing with/changing to snow while winding down from west to east
during the evening...possibly resulting in some light snowfall
accumulations.

 

Overnight the incoming colder airmass should then
become cold enough to generate a lake response...though this may
be fairly limited initially given an initial lack of favorable
background moisture...and the potential for the general west-
northwesterly flow to be at least somewhat sheared. With this in
mind...have just continued to advertise areas of enhanced chance
PoPs east-southeast of the lakes for now...and low chance PoPs
elsewhere for some additional widely scattered light snow showers
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Last 4 frames of the simulated radar from the HRRR for tonight through about 2AM, and I think it looks pretty good all things considered!

hrrr_ref_syracuse_16.thumb.png.ec365365850c84154d0a73b30fb157bc.png

hrrr_ref_syracuse_17.thumb.png.61cfde422a3da75475cb36bb36e2ba50.png

hrrr_ref_syracuse_18.thumb.png.741d95c0720cad68fcca0e88e28433de.png

hrrr_ref_syracuse_19.thumb.png.f3453f697d87256049e2ff6daec48c49.png

And there's more, much more and as the WF approaches the precip gets enhanced as it has to get lifted up and over the Cold Dense pool of Arctic air at the surface, which will be difficult to dislodge, IMO, along with a 35-40 knot H850 LVL jet pumping in Warm moist air right from the gulf.  Those are pretty decent returns, if its anywhere near correct, then the Nam spitting out 6-7" may not be , the NAM being the NAM as precip rates can get pretty high, sort of like an overrunning event.  I just don;t see how if a system heads to our S&E that we get into rain, even ice for that matter with a 1036HP to out North and East.  I can see if it exited straight East and the return flow was from the S-SE but this is not the case.

hrrr_2017122112_017_43.36--76_27.thumb.png.c27f539b8b653d8ae019e142b49d44e6.png

With a upper air sounding over KFZY, I wouldn't be too concerned with any warming aloft for a while ( but it should happen along the So. Tier and Northern PA). You can see just off the deck the winds are due East, while just above that, their due West to NW so Lake Enhancement is a definite possibility East and SE of the Lake as temps approach -12@850.  On top of this, the temps, while moderate snow is falling are in the mid-upper teens across the ares so ratios should be great for snowflake production as the Snow Growth region is roughly about 5000 ft thick so I am liking what I see so far for tonight's event into Friday. Not saying its gonna over perform but there is a chance for the hilltops to see close to 8". up in the Tug that is, not south of the Cuse!

 

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There is enough cold air throughout the atmosphere until the tail end of the event. I think the Tug stays snow but south of that will mix. The 1034 high gets pushed as the low pressure system heads over Buffalo and warm air aloft will usher in. Before that 3-6" will fall from Fulton, Syracuse, Tug. 2-4" across Rochester. 

wrf-arw_ref_frzn_neus_48.png

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19 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Looks like a w-wsw  flow starts Xmas afternoon on the Gfs/ggem, could be perfect tihriming for swva in Redfield even though travel may not be great..Still a little ways away..

 

The entire county takes a beating on the Canadian..

Yeah, I have been watching it to see when it really gets going.  We stay in south Redfield on the south side of the reservoir on Waterbury Rd.  We may drive through all night and get their at 3am Christmas morning vs. staying the night in Scranton like we usually do.  2 reasons.. try not to drive in the heart of the event and selfishly don't want to miss the snow!!

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46 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

There is enough cold air throughout the atmosphere until the tail end of the event. I think the Tug stays snow but south of that will mix. The 1034 high gets pushed as the low pressure system heads over Buffalo and warm air aloft will usher in. Before that 3-6" will fall from Fulton, Syracuse, Tug. 2-4" across Rochester. 

wrf-arw_ref_frzn_neus_48.png

I don't buy it, but you may be correct but we''ll see soon enough, lol! 

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32 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

GFS has come around to Euro for Christmas. This is gonna be fun. Winds more northerly. Moisture aplenty being thrown in from coast. Al of western ny looks white with possible significant snow south of Ontario and Erie. 

Ive been nothing but wrong for last 3 days. Ouch. The cold air has a punch! 

12z goofus has definitely come around on to the idea of the two lp's phasing. This could be a nice 4 to 6 inch event in most areas with enhancement south and southeast of the lakes.

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12Z Euro speeds up the trough, and has the coastal low further east for Xmas. I bet all the NE forum people are gonna go into depression, especially after the 12Z GFS caved to the 00Z Euro. Not much of a change for WNY just a bit less snow. Still looks great for LES due east of the lakes after Xmas next week! 

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5 minutes ago, Phillifan22 said:

12Z Euro speeds up the trough, and has the coastal low further east for Xmas. I bet all the NE forum people are gonna go into depression, especially after the 12Z GFS caved to the 00Z Euro. Not much of a change for WNY just a bit less snow. Still looks great for LES due east of the lakes after Xmas next week! 

Looks like from this distance that the winds start SW go to W then go WNW as the week goes on...bottom line all areas SHOULD see a healthy snow pack by end of next week.

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