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Convective showers with grauple and/or small hail Thursday?

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Very intriguing setup on Thursday as a potent shortwave trough digs in.  We are looking at incredible mid-November mid-level cold characterized by 500mb temperatures approaching -30C as the core of the cold pool moves overhead...that’s insane for this time of year.  

This will yield very steep mid-level lapse rates which may near 8 C/KM.  This, combined with sfc temps into the 40’s and sees near 40 could yield some very modest instability.  

Moisture appears to be sufficient enough to allow the development for convective showers which could contain grauple and/or small hail. 


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At around 6:30pm, driving towards Brockton Mass, from Stoughton  I encountered a sharp shower. It started as a few heavy raindrops and quickly became a downpour. The wind was gusting maybe to 20-25 mph. Following the gust, I encountered a weather phenomenon that is rare. A mixture of hail and graupel.   I would say the first burst near the Avon fire station was mostly graupel. However, a second burst near the Brockton city limits was hail. This would be my first-day seeing hail since the morning storms on 6/1/11. 

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