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JoMo

MO/KS/AR/OK 2019-2020 Winter Wonderland Discussion

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7 minutes ago, lokee said:

12z GFS up to Noon Thurs.

sn10_acc.us_sc.png

GFS continues to stand its ground with a slightly further SE track.  It did jog NW just a tad. As JoMo mentioned above the positive tilt will cause a sharp gradient.  Looks like some of us are going to get hosed.  

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4 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

GFS continues to stand its ground with a slightly further SE track.  It did jog NW just a tad. As JoMo mentioned above the positive tilt will cause a sharp gradient.  Looks like some of us are going to get hosed.  

Gfs looks like a good middle ground for now.

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NAM and Canadian are pretty close to each other. Starting to lose a hope in the Springfield area for anything significant.

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21 minutes ago, lokee said:

12z Canadian  has a sleet storm starting off in Central OKlahoma 

prateptype.us_sc.png

sn10_acc.us_sc.png

Looks like I 44 is once again the wall.  Areas south east of there will get slop.  

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All models agree on a good precip shield for the entire area,  so it's all about upper air and boundary temps at this point. If the past is an indicator we'll see warmer temp forecasts as we get closer in.  850 temps, surface, etc.

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Euro has a pretty similar track to previous run, but amounts are an issue it can't resolve. Feeling decent about getting a bit of snow here.

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2 hours ago, MoWeatherguy said:

All models agree on a good precip shield for the entire area,  so it's all about upper air and boundary temps at this point. If the past is an indicator we'll see warmer temp forecasts as we get closer in.  850 temps, surface, etc.

I feel like we have seen several events this year where the models were 2-5 degrees too warm leading up to the event. This time tomorrow, we should be able to start comparing temps. 

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Joplin forecast

Wednesday: A chance of snow before 7am, then snow showers likely after 7am. The snow could be heavy at times. 

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Meh will probably be another non event here I'm sure. Ground is extremely too warm as well now from these 70's lol. You guys in Missouri look to probably get something though

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Springfield afternoon AFD:

Quote
 All model solutions continue to show and uptick in
potential snowfall amounts, with the 12Z/15Z GEFS/SREF plumes
still showing a rather large spread (3" to 10" for SGF and 15Z
SREF plumes 0 to 4 inches), but the means have increased from
previous runs. As a result, despite snow falling during the day
did up snowfall amounts, especially in areas along and north of
interstate 44, where a solid 3 to 4 inches will be possible. At
this point mainly accumulating snow period looks to be after 12Z
Wednesday, so will hold off any headlines with this package. Again
to be noted, there continues to be a rather large spread in
solutions, so further updates to the forecast will be likely.

 

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10 minutes ago, JoMo said:

Springfield afternoon AFD:

 

Lets continue that trend for the next 36-48 hours.

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3 minutes ago, JoMo said:

18z GFS bumped back a bit NW didn't it?

Looks that way in Oklahoma, but it is better for us in Missouri. In OK, it is slightly NW, but the band is more narrow. 

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16 minutes ago, MUWX said:

Looks that way in Oklahoma, but it is better for us in Missouri. In OK, it is slightly NW, but the band is more narrow. 

Wouldn't worry too much as the GFS has been the outlier this whole time and has been slowly moving NW toward the other models.

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