JoMo Posted February 3, 2020 Author Share Posted February 3, 2020 12z GFS moved back west in MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 7 minutes ago, lokee said: 12z GFS up to Noon Thurs. GFS continues to stand its ground with a slightly further SE track. It did jog NW just a tad. As JoMo mentioned above the positive tilt will cause a sharp gradient. Looks like some of us are going to get hosed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 When will this thing be sampled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 4 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: GFS continues to stand its ground with a slightly further SE track. It did jog NW just a tad. As JoMo mentioned above the positive tilt will cause a sharp gradient. Looks like some of us are going to get hosed. Gfs looks like a good middle ground for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Would love it to be just a little more S/E. Dallas proper so close to real snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 3, 2020 Author Share Posted February 3, 2020 20 minutes ago, ouamber said: When will this thing be sampled? Already has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 12 Canadian shifts NW too. Runs up I-44. Not a good look for us in NWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 NAM and Canadian are pretty close to each other. Starting to lose a hope in the Springfield area for anything significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 12z Canadian has a sleet storm starting off in Central OKlahoma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkRazer Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 21 minutes ago, lokee said: 12z Canadian has a sleet storm starting off in Central OKlahoma Looks like I 44 is once again the wall. Areas south east of there will get slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 All models agree on a good precip shield for the entire area, so it's all about upper air and boundary temps at this point. If the past is an indicator we'll see warmer temp forecasts as we get closer in. 850 temps, surface, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 12z Euro up to Thurs at 6pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 3, 2020 Author Share Posted February 3, 2020 Euro has a pretty similar track to previous run, but amounts are an issue it can't resolve. Feeling decent about getting a bit of snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 2 hours ago, MoWeatherguy said: All models agree on a good precip shield for the entire area, so it's all about upper air and boundary temps at this point. If the past is an indicator we'll see warmer temp forecasts as we get closer in. 850 temps, surface, etc. I feel like we have seen several events this year where the models were 2-5 degrees too warm leading up to the event. This time tomorrow, we should be able to start comparing temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 18z HRRR (36 hour) Midnight Tues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 18z Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 3, 2020 Author Share Posted February 3, 2020 Joplin forecast Wednesday: A chance of snow before 7am, then snow showers likely after 7am. The snow could be heavy at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Meh will probably be another non event here I'm sure. Ground is extremely too warm as well now from these 70's lol. You guys in Missouri look to probably get something though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Difference between the 3K NAM and 12K NAM is stressing me out since this is such a fine line... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 I really need to NAM to trend about 15 miles south over the next 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 3, 2020 Author Share Posted February 3, 2020 Springfield afternoon AFD: Quote All model solutions continue to show and uptick in potential snowfall amounts, with the 12Z/15Z GEFS/SREF plumes still showing a rather large spread (3" to 10" for SGF and 15Z SREF plumes 0 to 4 inches), but the means have increased from previous runs. As a result, despite snow falling during the day did up snowfall amounts, especially in areas along and north of interstate 44, where a solid 3 to 4 inches will be possible. At this point mainly accumulating snow period looks to be after 12Z Wednesday, so will hold off any headlines with this package. Again to be noted, there continues to be a rather large spread in solutions, so further updates to the forecast will be likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Winter Storm Watch issued for Tulsa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Travisstorma Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Probably will be sunny in Tulsa now since they put this map out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 10 minutes ago, JoMo said: Springfield afternoon AFD: Lets continue that trend for the next 36-48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 3, 2020 Author Share Posted February 3, 2020 18z GFS bumped back a bit NW didn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 7 minutes ago, Travisstorma said: Probably will be sunny in Tulsa now since they put this map out. Don't you put that evil on me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 18z GFS has gone and messed everything up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, JoMo said: 18z GFS bumped back a bit NW didn't it? Looks like it’s NW and warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, JoMo said: 18z GFS bumped back a bit NW didn't it? Looks that way in Oklahoma, but it is better for us in Missouri. In OK, it is slightly NW, but the band is more narrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 16 minutes ago, MUWX said: Looks that way in Oklahoma, but it is better for us in Missouri. In OK, it is slightly NW, but the band is more narrow. Wouldn't worry too much as the GFS has been the outlier this whole time and has been slowly moving NW toward the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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