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JoMo

MO/KS/AR/OK 2017-2018 Winter Wonderland Discussion

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Thought I'd try my luck at making the winter thread. Hopefully it won't turn out like the last few winters, and we'll actually have a winter this year.

This year looks like it's probably going to be a La Nina year. Strength is still TBD, but it appears it's most likely to be either be weak to moderate. You can check out the latest forecast on ENSO here:

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

La Nina years typically give us sporadic cold shots (sometimes very cold) followed by warm ups. It seems to give us a 'backloaded' winter a lot of the time. Meaning Dec is usually warm and Feb is usually colder. The CFS v2 has been showing just that.

Latest can be found here:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2_body.html

As far as analogs, I've seen 1999-2000 mentioned and 2007-2008 mentioned. 99-00 was an averageish winter, except for above normal snow in much of AR (minus the far NW portion), and eastern OK. 07-08 was the year of the ice storms. 

 

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I'm not a fan of 1999-00 for this winter, but I do like 2007-08 somewhat - look at how much closer 2007 is to 2017. Look at Summer 1999 - super cold in the SW, really most of the West, and super warm in the NE. It's almost the exact opposite of recent conditions. Part of that is we had pseduo-El Nino conditions in Apr-July, but still. I know there is a guy on the Accuweather forums who likes 1999-00, but he keeps insisting 1998-99 was a good match to last year even though the precip pattern was the complete opposite - for most of the West (NW dry not Wet, SW wet not dry, especially CA) and the South.

dzqaPxn.png

 

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I'm going with a slightly harsher scenario (cold) than most. I like 2000-01, 1984-85, 2008-09, and 2010-11. Going to get into research pretty quick and see if i can make an analog map or 2.

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I want to see what the AMO value for September was, but pending a sudden warm up / cool down from the hurricanes, I like a blend of 1932, 1943, 1944, 1996, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2012 for the winter. Tried to pick warm/neutral AMO years, with a mix of positive PDO/negative PDO years, low solar, La Ninas or Cold Neutrals after La Ninas, similar values to what I expect on the Jamstec's Modoki index which goes back to 1870. Also try to blend it all in a way that matches Summer rainfall patterns here, since we get so little rain even in the wet season.

Weighting is something like:

1932: x3

1943: x2

1944: x3

1996: x3

2005: x3

2007: x3

2008: x2

2012: x1

I think it's a much colder, but still not particularly cold winter for much of interior South, South Central, and SW US. 1932-33 was one of the winters that triggered the Dustbowl so hoping it isn't that dry, but with a VEI6 volcano in the tropics, and a hurricane hitting SW FL, a four hitting Puerto Rico & TX, something is similar - whether its Nino 3.4, trade winds, or the Atlantic, its not like Puerto Rico & TX have both been hit by fours in the same year in any other year since 1850. 

I'm almost done writing my winter outlook, will put it out sometime between 10/7 and 10/15. Want to see how much rain we have in Oct and a couple other minor things.

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On 10/5/2017 at 5:12 PM, raindancewx said:

I want to see what the AMO value for September was, but pending a sudden warm up / cool down from the hurricanes, I like a blend of 1932, 1943, 1944, 1996, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2012 for the winter. Tried to pick warm/neutral AMO years, with a mix of positive PDO/negative PDO years, low solar, La Ninas or Cold Neutrals after La Ninas, similar values to what I expect on the Jamstec's Modoki index which goes back to 1870. Also try to blend it all in a way that matches Summer rainfall patterns here, since we get so little rain even in the wet season.

Weighting is something like:

1932: x3

1943: x2

1944: x3

1996: x3

2005: x3

2007: x3

2008: x2

2012: x1

I think it's a much colder, but still not particularly cold winter for much of interior South, South Central, and SW US. 1932-33 was one of the winters that triggered the Dustbowl so hoping it isn't that dry, but with a VEI6 volcano in the tropics, and a hurricane hitting SW FL, a four hitting Puerto Rico & TX, something is similar - whether its Nino 3.4, trade winds, or the Atlantic, its not like Puerto Rico & TX have both been hit by fours in the same year in any other year since 1850. 

I'm almost done writing my winter outlook, will put it out sometime between 10/7 and 10/15. Want to see how much rain we have in Oct and a couple other minor things.

I'm looking forward to it. I'm still working and waiting on a few things to happen also before I write my thoughts out. Things are looking good for my area, in my opinion. The next 2 weeks are very critical in the overall long term pattern. Trades burst looks to cool ENSO back down. Something to keep in mind also, +AAM, -QBO, and a climbing PDO all argue for a -AO and a period of at least some cold for a large portion of the US this winter.

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Nate is almost identical to 1932 also - a tropical storm formed in the Caribbean on Oct 5 and hit LA/MS as a strong tropical storm / weak hurricane from the same direction.

 

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Part of me wonders if there will be some kind of lag in the Nina response just because it has been reversing lately - third column is Nino 3.4.

 06SEP2017     20.4-0.1     24.3-0.6     26.2-0.6     28.7 0.1
 13SEP2017     19.7-0.7     24.0-0.9     26.1-0.6     28.7 0.0
 20SEP2017     19.3-1.1     23.9-1.0     26.3-0.4     28.7 0.0
 27SEP2017     19.5-1.0     24.4-0.5     26.5-0.2     28.4-0.2
 04OCT2017     19.3-1.4     24.7-0.2     26.7 0.0     28.7 0.1

I guess it could reverse in record time, but Oct 1-9 looks like it had an anomaly of -0.2C in Nino 3.4. So into Nov/early Dec it seems like a Neutral pattern would prevail. Basically, I think the Euro will trend a colder for Dec for the middle of the US when it accounts for that. I've been assuming, -1 to -2F for Dec, +/- 0.5 for Jan, and then +3 in Feb for my area. So it isn't that different from my thoughts (it has +1 for Jan and +4 for Feb for me).

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https://tinyurl.com/yam55n95

The link is my winter forecast, if anyone is curious. Ended up using the following for analogs, which gave a weak, slightly east-central La Nina, which isn't super far off from what the Canadian showed. Analogs: 1932 (x2), 1943 (x3), 1944 (x3), 1996 (x3), 2005 (x3), 2007 (x3), 2008 (x2), 2012 (x1).

If any of you like to ski, I included some snow totals for the mountainous areas of NM as a proxy for whether ski season will be good or not.

 

 

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2 hours ago, raindancewx said:

https://tinyurl.com/yam55n95

The link is my winter forecast, if anyone is curious. Ended up using the following for analogs, which gave a weak, slightly east-central La Nina, which isn't super far off from what the Canadian showed. Analogs: 1932 (x2), 1943 (x3), 1944 (x3), 1996 (x3), 2005 (x3), 2007 (x3), 2008 (x2), 2012 (x1).

If any of you like to ski, I included some snow totals for the mountainous areas of NM as a proxy for whether ski season will be good or not.

 

 

Interesting and very detailed write up. Looks mild and wet 0 to +1 for this area, eh?

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I think so. I agree with Weatherbell and some of the other forecasters out - its kind of an ice storm pattern. I think its pretty wet in the south other than Florida.

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15 hours ago, raindancewx said:

https://tinyurl.com/yam55n95

The link is my winter forecast, if anyone is curious. Ended up using the following for analogs, which gave a weak, slightly east-central La Nina, which isn't super far off from what the Canadian showed. Analogs: 1932 (x2), 1943 (x3), 1944 (x3), 1996 (x3), 2005 (x3), 2007 (x3), 2008 (x2), 2012 (x1).

If any of you like to ski, I included some snow totals for the mountainous areas of NM as a proxy for whether ski season will be good or not.

 

 

I like the forecast RDwx ,as it has been overly dry around here. With 0 to 1+  temps and above normal wet spells big chances of some wet accumulating snows . I can deal with that B) . Also as has been mentioned that if those conditions prevail you'll get bigger chance of Ice and sleet  of which my preference would be negative to that . Well maybe a little bit but not the 1"  + stuff . :wacko:

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The JAMSTEC update agrees with what I put out - somewhat warm - but pretty wet in MO/AR etc. The run in Oct last year was pretty bad for the NW (temps) but it did have the big time warm winter right overall. Its nice to see it colder this year.

HNIGyur.png

SW8KiaG.png

It was pretty good on precip last year, except that the wetness hit CA & not the NW. But it has MO/OK/TX/AR wet - and it had them very dry last year (correctly). The Jamstec is close to what I have. I don't really buy the Temperature/Precip outlooks from the models for winter until October, but its nice to see big differences from last year.

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I see Doug Heady mentioned the S word for next friday and posted a couple maps, his long range FC stating snow/rain as well. Must be some fluke model runs lol, hope you all are doing well!!! Hopefully we get something this season and its not another boring winter with a half inch total again haha.

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5 hours ago, NwWhiteOut said:

I see Doug Heady mentioned the S word for next friday and posted a couple maps, his long range FC stating snow/rain as well. Must be some fluke model runs lol, hope you all are doing well!!! Hopefully we get something this season and its not another boring winter with a half inch total again haha.

Euro/GFS keep showing chances for a little snow for someone in the area. Not sure it'll happen though.

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54 minutes ago, JoMo said:

Euro/GFS keep showing chances for a little snow for someone in the area. Not sure it'll happen though.

Yea JoMo, when I looked at the map it showed snow for south central MO. I never saw snow in October so it would be neat, doubt that will happen but you never know lol.

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