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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Yeah not looking good haha. Don’t weak Nina’s tend to have warm November’s? 

There's no historical signal for that.  Composite is pretty neutral and no link between Nino 3.4 and Nov temps in western ny.  

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Razor thin that’s for sure lol

 

Northwest winds will also bring lake effect snow southeast of the
lake, with snows focused upon Wayne to Oswego counties. There will
likely be minor upslope lake effect snows on the southern Tug Hill.
Over the longer fetch of the lake, there will likely be a more
concentrated area of snow, with a narrow band of snow setting up
over Oswego County. Temperatures aloft will be a bit colder over
Lake Ontario, dipping to about -11/-12C which will produce extreme
lake instability. The narrow band of snow over Lake Ontario will
increase in strength through the night, and with potential for an
upstream connection to Georgian Bay this band of snow has the
potential to produce snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour late
Sunday night and into Monday morning. Behind the passage of a 500
hPa shortwave trough, the band of snow may drop towards Wayne and
northern Cayuga Counties for a brief time mid-overnight Sunday night
before centering back upon far northern Cayuga and across western
and central Oswego counties in the pre-dawn hours Monday. It is at
this time and location that we expect the most intense part of the
snow band, and with the snow band likely to remain over the same
areas for a 4-8 hour window...warning criteria snowfall amounts are
possible. As such a Winter Storm Watch (for Lake Effect Snow) has
been issued for these two counties of northern Cayuga and Oswego
Counties

7CBB96A9-4FED-4347-A96F-95A7E1DEA363.png

37F0C8FF-EA0D-4806-87CF-0826E3FEC066.png

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Oz rgem still looks good for southern/central Oswego county, 3k nam shifted the heaviest stuff to the north into central Oswego county..Just waiting for that last second shift lol Going to be hard to pinpoint that “mega band”..

EDA56785-5CF6-4D97-AEAE-C01CA8091CB9.jpeg

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If she goes quasi stationary, we'll hit double digits but I'm always sceptical of bands forecasted 24hr in advance to only hit 5 miles to our North or South, for that matter. Like you said though, it does look promising.

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I said it right here, and this is precisely what happened. Absolutely disgusting, and so it begins! Snow hole is now over KFZY, lol!!

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Although, I'm sure there's a margin for error, as a 5-10 mile shift either way should be expected, No? But there has definitely been a North trend, no doubt about It! We're not even gonna see a flake with the initial changeover, as it's still too warm, lol.

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Yup definitely busted on the changeover from the synoptic snow, nada here, nothing. Precip past and not a flake. Will be lucky if I catch a dusting on a passing lake streamer later. Man this season has some bad luck so far. Good luck to everyone else!

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Good luck to all, as I think we're relying on guidance way to much, and not enough on pattern recognition. There's no westerly wind flow, throughout the column, but somehow the guidance still puts the damn band in Central Oswego cty. I'm not gonna go crazy over this, as the season is still, in it's infancy.

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The problem is that abrupt change from NW-W tomorrow am, this could create a max SW and N/NE of this area.. I got burned much worse in year 1 (twice), trust me LOL  I grew up to 20” a year winters and now I’m 10 miles Downwind of LO, not much to fret about lol

3DDB672F-C99C-428D-8946-92201CE5F38D.jpeg

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Kbuf from this morning 

 

 
First for Lake Erie...a general 290-300 flow will be in place
throughout the day with a cap below 10k ft. While this flow will
allow for some upstream priming off multiple lakes...the relatively
low cap and only marginally cold near surface conditions should
limit snowfall to a few inches...with the higher amounts coming over
terrain above 1500 ft. As we push through tonight though...the cold
air will deepen and the inversion will lift to 10k ft or better.
This...and the overnight timing...will favor higher and more
widespread accumulations. Nighttime accumulations will be in the
vcnty of 2 to 4 inches away from the lake...with the higher amounts
being concentrated across the higher terrain.

In regards to lake snows from Lake Ontario...as is usually the case
it will take several more hours for a noticeable lake response.
There will be a little more shear and slightly `warmer` profile over
the lake through early afternoon...but as we progress through the
afternoon into the evening hours...a fairly well organized band of
lake snow should become focused on Wayne and northern Cayuga
counties. As in the case of Lake Erie...the cap will be under 10k ft
so am not expecting overly generous amounts of snow for the daylight
hours. Amounts will likely range from a coating to an inch or so. As
we push through tonight...the cap will lift to more than 10k ft with
a fairly solid upstream connection becoming established with
Georgian Bay. While this will lead to greater snowfall rates...the
band is forecast to oscillate enough to keep the snow from
accumulating more than 3 to 5 inches in any one spot from the
northeast corner of Wayne County to south central Oswego County.
Will maintain the winter storm watch for lake effect snow for this
area and allow additional guidance to help in doing additional fine
tuning. From this vantage point though...the most significant lake
snows in this area should occur from late tonight through Monday

With that being said, P&C showing 6”-10”, so we’ll see..

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I seriously think this lake is gonna just spew snow, as conditions are quite favorable with moisture throughout the column. The CF has made it to Eastern NY already while 3 hrs ago it was in WNY.  We're waiting on that blob of cold air dropping SEward and entering the upper Great Lakes. The issue is, when that colder air arrives later tonight the winds veer just enough behind that CF to send the band into C-Oswego for the remainder of the event until it finally heads North.  So we have to wait and see. I'm still confident we see at least 2-4" throughout the area but I think the double digit snows will head for the Tug. What else is new, lol, and its no surprise!  

rtma_tmp2m_conus.png

 

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33 and snowing here. Surfaces are still too warm for any accumulation. As for the coming lake effect, Channel 9's model still has the band setting up over northern Onondaga County tonight with 3 - 7 inches. 

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Slushy coating here at 1100' in southern Orchard Park last night. It was 54F when I went to bed at 11pm, and there was already a coating on the grass when I randomly woke up at 3:00. Very impressive front. I think the bulk of the lake effect off Erie will be south of my location, but the snow squall parameter is quite high throughout all of western New York late this afternoon and evening...so as the s/w sweeps over the region, it may carry some streamers/squalls from Lake Huron down across the Niagara Frontier. No big totals in the immediate BUF area, but a good squall or two can always be fun. We'll see how this unfolds.

OPsnow.jpg

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its snowing and sticking.  I think I may have underestimated this cold shot cause we're close to, if not at, freezing already which wasn't supposed to occur till tonight so accumulations should have no problems now, even during the daylight hours.

I'm at 32 with SN!

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Is it me or does the GFS want to hammer parts of CNY later next weekend and early next week? Looks like a prolonged LES event on that particular model. 

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52 minutes ago, phoenixny said:

Is it me or does the GFS want to hammer parts of CNY later next weekend and early next week? Looks like a prolonged LES event on that particular model. 

Yeah looks decent, not an ideal set-up though.

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

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