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powderfreak

NNE Fall Thread

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Event totals: 15.2” Snow/0.78” L.E.

 

The snow was really coming down at the house this morning – I saw on our webcam snowboard that we picked up and inch from 8:30 A.M. – 9:00 A.M., so the rate was ~2”/hr. during that period.  The radar doesn’t show much now, but if indeed this is the end of event, it’s already delivered quite well.  A 15.2” total for the storm is actually even a bit over the 8-14” that was in our NWS point forecast, but I’d say they did their typical great job of forecasting for a challenging, mountainous, microclimate-riddled area.

 

After that very slow first 1/3 of the month, a shot like this event was much needed to get December snowfall back on track.

 

Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 3.3 inches

New Liquid: 0.07 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 47.1

Snow Density: 2.1% H2O

Temperature: 12.9 F

Sky: Light Snow (1 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 12.0 inches

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Does that Mill have a pub inside?

Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk

I don't believe so but it should for every photographer who takes this shot ;)

Sent from my VS995 using Tapatalk

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14 hours ago, powderfreak said:
 I can't wait to see what the high terrain looks like after this latest storm, and wind, moves on.

 

14DEC17A.jpg

 

I figured you’d enjoy this image PF – the mountain snowpack is looking pretty nice after this recent storm.  This year’s pack isn’t quite where it was last year, but it looks like it’s actually only a few inches behind, and that’s a pretty darned good place to be.  It’s interesting to note that last year the pack was coming up on a bit of a consolidation somewhere in the Dec 15th –Dec 20th range.

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10 hours ago, eyewall said:

25194302488_acf620dddc_k.jpg

 

I love this shot... that's an angle I've never seen before of the Mansfield Trout Club and Spine.

I've always thought Nebraska Valley there and up to Lake Mansfield is one of the snowier spots in the state for being 1,000ft and less in elevation.  It's location just gets so much orographic lift and it seems to always be snowing up in that little notch.  I have a friend that lives just down the road there and I'll have a dusting and he'll get 3-4" overnight.  The J.Spin effect. 

I'm also sure that Lake, when it goes calm, is the coldest spot in Stowe.  I think that topographic hole there would make MVL look warm on some mornings.

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Checking the BTV NWS forecast discussion, it looks like we’ve got a fairly active pattern coming up, with a few chances for snow as we head through the weekend and into next week.

  1. Tonight into Saturday - a weak low pressure system and upper level trough swings through.  The BTV NWS has this broken out into a couple of instances, but the second part seems pretty minor and on the models it seems to show up as a continuous event.

  2. Monday afternoon – warm advection shortwave

  3. Tuesday - trough of low pressure swinging through the area that brings some warmer air and snow levels to 2,000’ or so.

  4. Wednesday – Cold front with northwest flow aloft and orographic snow showers

 

Obviously the events farther out in time are subject to more change, but there are certainly a number of chances coming for freshening up the slopes and adding a bit to the snowpack.  I’ve added in some relevant sections of the BTV NWS forecast discussion below.

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

940 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Upper level trough swings across our forecast area tonight and brings a better chance for light snow showers, especially in the higher elevations. Temperatures will be closer to seasonal normals overnight with clouds and snow, as well as winds. Best chance at some accumulations will be along the Saint Lawrence river with lake effect bands, then in the northwest upslope regions of the Adirondacks and Green Mountains tonight into Saturday, generally 1-3". The rest of the area should only have an inch or less of snow with the widespread scattered light snow showers.

 

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

As of 343 AM EST Friday...Quiet weather is expected through Saturday night and Sunday as a 1030mb high drifts to the east over southern Quebec. The flow aloft will remain northwest as weak ridging occurs aloft. There`s a slight chance of some western slope snow potential as the hires models are keying on some 10-15dbz`s in along the western slopes of the Greens. The safe bet is we`ll see some flurries but very little in the way of accumulation.

 

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

As of 410 AM EST Friday....Coming out of the weekend we still  anticipate a fairly active pattern. The medium ranged guidance  still offers different ideas for how Monday shapes up. The GFS  is still the outlier with a dry forecast so I continued the  trend towards the CMC/EC with a weak warm advection shortwave  that brings some light snow to the region Monday afternoon.

 

By Tuesday the general consensus from the global models is that  we`ll have trough of low pressure swing through the North  Country. We`ll be under strong warm air advection in the morning and  we`ll see temps warm enough to see rain at elevations below  2000ft with some rain/snow mix in the 2000-3000ft range. The  higher peaks will most likely stay as snow. Of course timing  differences in when the precip arrives will have fairly large  consequences on p-type so well just need to monitor and update  as a single solution emerges.

 

Regardless of the timing, a cold front will swing through which  leads to colder temps on Wednesday. We`ll be looking at  northwest flow aloft with westerly flow at the surface, so we  should see mainly orographic snow showers along with some lake  effect snow developing. The temps should be in the upper 20s to  around 30 on Wednesday falling to the single digits to low teens  overnight.

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Event totals: 0.2” Snow/0.01” L.E.

 

This morning there were a couple tenths of new snow on the board from the surface low/upper-level trough affecting the area.  We just had a nice burst of snow with big flakes that dropped another 0.4 inches as well.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.2 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 20.0

Snow Density: 5.0% H2O

Temperature: 12.4 F

Sky: Flurries

Snow at the stake: 9.5 inches

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Event totals: 1.1” Snow/0.02” L.E.

 

Details from the 12:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.9 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 90.0

Snow Density: 1.1% H2O

Temperature: 27.3 F

Sky: Light Snow (3-12 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 10.0 inches

 

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51 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Pfreak, is alpine terrain off limits this year after the October wind storm?

No the mountain saw very little damage, if any.  All the damage was down in the valleys and lower elevations (like pretty much every white pine below like 1,000ft seemed to come down, ha).  Very odd but there was no real noticeable damage up in the higher terrain.  The vegetation is stronger and my guess is the herd was thinned out long ago with the number of heavy wet snows, ice storms, and wind the elevations already see on a regular basis.  Town almost never sees any wind, so 50mph was a big deal.

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On 12/15/2017 at 9:48 AM, powderfreak said:

Good band of lake effect clouds seen out in the Champlain Valley from the high elevation picnic tables this morning.

2L8A6316_exportsmall.thumb.jpg.30225ac08529531cf2df1eca37dd2c8a.jpg

That is an awesome shot. I always love it when you get steam devils on the lake. 

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