bluewave Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 Analogs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 Don't see any reason to go against the trend, I think the fall and winter will be a lot colder than people think and a huge departure from the last two years. Even a near normal fall would feel cold, which is what I'm going with. I see an early start to winter and mostly agree with JB this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 last years oni for DJF was -0.4...this year could be similar...if the oni falls between -0.4 and -0.7 the analogs would be... season.......snow...big snow...temp... 1954-55.....11.5"........3.9"........34.0... 1962-63.....16.3"........4.2"........30.0... 1964-65.....24.4"........6.3"........33.3... 1966-67.....51.5"......12.5"........34.1... 1967-68.....19.5"........6.6"........31.3... 1971-72.....22.9"........5.7"........35.1... 1974-75.....13.1"........7.8"........37.5... 1983-84.....25.4"........6.9"........35.2... 1985-86.....13.0"........4.5"........33.4... 1996-97.....10.0"........3.5"........37.8... 2000-01.....35.0"......12.0"........33.5... 2005-06.....40.0"......26.9"........37.3... 2008-09.....27.6"........8.3"........34.2... 2011-12.......7.4"........4.3"........40.5... 2012-13.....26.1"......11.4"........36.9... 2013-14.....57.4"......12.5"........33.0... 2016-17.....30.2"........9.4"........39.3... some good snow years had less blocking from the ao/nao than bad snow years...since 2000 six of seven have near to above normal snowfall...four were on the mild side...three on the cold side...three of the four mild years had near to above normal snowfall...the three cold years had near to above normal snowfall...December 2011 has the highest ao and nao monthly numbers of the bunch...there has been no help from the nao on average since Dec. 2008...February and March 2013 ao and nao were negative at the same time on average...1962-63 had a negative ao and nao on average throughout...it had to much blocking for a weak nina...64-65 was like that...it had more snow than 62-63 but nothing major...Feb and March 67 had way above normal snowfall despite a very positive ao and nao on average...who needs weeks of cold without any snow?...I'll take last year's warm snowy type over 1962-63's bone chilling cold with little snows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 On 8/22/2017 at 10:20 AM, SnoSki14 said: Don't see any reason to go against the trend, I think the fall and winter will be a lot colder than people think and a huge departure from the last two years. Even a near normal fall would feel cold, which is what I'm going with. I see an early start to winter and mostly agree with JB this time around. Yeah. In all honestly December could be +2 and in some parts of the east +5 and it would feel like a freezer compared to December 15 or 16. I remember joking last fall that the one guarantee I had was that December would be colder than December 2015 and in many places I was somehow wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 the ridge that won't die Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 On 8/24/2017 at 7:39 PM, SnowGoose69 said: Yeah. In all honestly December could be +2 and in some parts of the east +5 and it would feel like a freezer compared to December 15 or 16. I remember joking last fall that the one guarantee I had was that December would be colder than December 2015 and in many places I was somehow wrong December 2016 was colder than 2015 though. We had the snow event mid-month... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 23 minutes ago, nzucker said: December 2016 was colder than 2015 though. We had the snow event mid-month... Yeah, all of Fall 2015 was a complete torch. Incredible how warm September-December was. The January Blizzard is what saved that Winter. Awesome event in Morris County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: Yeah, all of Fall 2015 was a complete torch. Incredible how warm September-December was. The January Blizzard is what saved that Winter, awesome event in Morris County. The January blizzard dropped 24" where I was in the Bronx..incredibly heavy snowfall rates and drifting. Then we hit -1F at Central Park in mid-February followed by a 2-4" storm. Had 22/6 followed by 15/-1. That was the coldest night since January 1994 and the biggest arctic shot that I've ever seen in a very mild winter. Winter was basically over after that except for the 1-3" that fell on 3/20. Weak La Nina/-QBO couplet along with the persistent western ridge argues for a much colder December this year. Something like Dec 07/Dec 08 where we are near normal with one outbreak of very cold air wouldn't surprise me, and the battleground near us/just to the north so that New England benefits as they often do in a Dec La Nina pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 58 minutes ago, nzucker said: The January blizzard dropped 24" where I was in the Bronx..incredibly heavy snowfall rates and drifting. Then we hit -1F at Central Park in mid-February followed by a 2-4" storm. Had 22/6 followed by 15/-1. That was the coldest night since January 1994 and the biggest arctic shot that I've ever seen in a very mild winter. Winter was basically over after that except for the 1-3" that fell on 3/20. Weak La Nina/-QBO couplet along with the persistent western ridge argues for a much colder December this year. Something like Dec 07/Dec 08 where we are near normal with one outbreak of very cold air wouldn't surprise me, and the battleground near us/just to the north so that New England benefits as they often do in a Dec La Nina pattern. And to think it came after a record warm Fall and December. I had about 22" here, but it was hard to get an accurate measurement with the drifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 On 8/30/2017 at 3:31 PM, nzucker said: The January blizzard dropped 24" where I was in the Bronx..incredibly heavy snowfall rates and drifting. Then we hit -1F at Central Park in mid-February followed by a 2-4" storm. Had 22/6 followed by 15/-1. That was the coldest night since January 1994 and the biggest arctic shot that I've ever seen in a very mild winter. Winter was basically over after that except for the 1-3" that fell on 3/20. Weak La Nina/-QBO couplet along with the persistent western ridge argues for a much colder December this year. Something like Dec 07/Dec 08 where we are near normal with one outbreak of very cold air wouldn't surprise me, and the battleground near us/just to the north so that New England benefits as they often do in a Dec La Nina pattern. Just based on the trade wind progression, SOI and subsurface, I don't think this ever becomes a weak La Niña. Cold-neutral? yes, absolutely. As far as it becoming an official La Niña, even a very weak one, I don't think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.