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Rtd208

August 2017 Observations & Discussion Thread

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1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

we all know what's going to happen

Wagons south. If it doesn't trend south and we actually get a heavier rain event then maybe we have turned the corner, maybe.

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4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

The 2/6/10 maps just keep coming!  LOL

As bad as those two early February storms were for the interior and Northern areas, we made up for it not long after. That 17" in my neck of the woods had about 3" worth of water content. 

Image result for 2/6/10 snowstorm nj

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3 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

we all know what's going to happen

 

2 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Wagons south.

Well perhaps however we do have a rebounding NAO which usually is a signal for an East coast storm.

nao.sprd2.gif

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3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

it's mostly based on a tropical system that may or may not even develop so complete fantasy right now.

Actually most of that rain has nothing to do with the tropical system. All this while 99L is still way down off the Florida coast. The tropical feed is definitely enhancing the rain, but it's not directly connected.

598a0893592c9.png

As you can see 99L passes off the coast two days later

598a086a5a32f.png

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Anyone see any weeks before Labor Day when at least MOST of the week will be nice ... even if the temps aren't in the 90s? Seems to me that we haven't had more than 2 or 3 beach days in a row or during a given week without a shortwave, storm or front rolling through. Sunday was supposed to be an amazing day - best day of the week. I went out to Long Beach around noon and all of a sudden, it clouded up from the Bronx through Queens all the way out to Long Beach and it was downright chilly at the beach.  

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2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

yes but if there is no TS/hurricane then is there a tropical feed up this way?    

Hard to say, it's a deepening trough that actually helps steer 99L OTS.

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1 minute ago, larrye said:

Anyone see any weeks before Labor Day when at least MOST of the week will be nice ... even if the temps aren't in the 90s? Seems to me that we haven't had more than 2 or 3 beach days in a row or during a given week without a shortwave, storm or front rolling through. Sunday was supposed to be an amazing day - best day of the week. I went out to Long Beach around noon and all of a sudden, it clouded up from the Bronx through Queens all the way out to Long Beach and it was downright chilly at the beach.  

Depending on exactly what happens, once 99L clears the area things look quite for a few days, but if you're looking for an extended stretch of dry and hot you'd best try Texas or Nevada.

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that looks just like the other convective systems the euro has been wrong with all summer 

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7 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

that looks just like the other convective systems the euro has been wrong with all summer 

I am wondering if the Euro is even to deep with 99L due to convective feedback? None of the other models except the CMC do much with it. The UK and GFS keep it weak.

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6 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

that looks just like the other convective systems the euro has been wrong with all summer 

 

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

I am wondering if the Euro is even to deep with 99L due to convective feedback? None of the other models except the CMC do much with it. The UK and GFS keep it weak.

The EPS love the threat.

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Most EPS members are weaker than the OP though. 

Look at this agreement on the 12z EPS

598a0ed9616a1.png

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14 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Look at this agreement on the 12z EPS

 

Most EPS members are slower to develop through 120 with pressures above 1000 mb.

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24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I am wondering if the Euro is even to deep with 99L due to convective feedback? None of the other models except the CMC do much with it. The UK and GFS keep it weak.

it's pretty weird to see the hurricane happy gfs not do anything with it

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18 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

it's pretty weird to see the hurricane happy gfs not do anything with it

Seems like all the stronger developments passing near the Bahamas since 2012 have held off until October for some reason. 

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51 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Most EPS members are slower to develop through 120 with pressures above 1000 mb.

The slower the development and the slower the movement the better odds of missing the trough.

Look at the secondary cluster near OBX after the OP already has the storm Northeast of the benchmark.

598a1e9184695.png

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1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

it's pretty weird to see the hurricane happy gfs not do anything with it

 

43 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Seems like all the stronger developments passing near the Bahamas since 2012 have held off until October for some reason. 

While the GFS OP doesn't show much development with 99L, the 12z GEFS mean does show the same QPF max off the mid-atlantic coast in the 5-10 day range.

598a2187dbb97.png

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24 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

 

While the GFS OP doesn't show much development with 99L, the 12z GEFS mean does show the same QPF max off the mid-atlantic coast in the 5-10 day range.

 

That fits the seasonal pattern pretty well of heaviest rains to our south. The last time there was a strong system near the Bahamas before October was Irene in 2011. Everything passing through that zone before October since 2012 has struggled with dry air.

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3 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

Depending on exactly what happens, once 99L clears the area things look quite for a few days, but if you're looking for an extended stretch of dry and hot you'd best try Texas or Nevada.

Dry and hot? No. A frontal passage with 2-3 days of nice weather with lower humidity followed by another 2-3 days of nice weather (Partly Cloudy/Party Sunny) with increasing humidity and afternoon/evening T-Storms ... that would be a "normal" summer pattern. As opposed to a continued barrage of these major systems where we lost 2-3 days in a row to clouds and steadier rain.

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3 hours ago, larrye said:

Dry and hot? No. A frontal passage with 2-3 days of nice weather with lower humidity followed by another 2-3 days of nice weather (Partly Cloudy/Party Sunny) with increasing humidity and afternoon/evening T-Storms ... that would be a "normal" summer pattern. As opposed to a continued barrage of these major systems where we lost 2-3 days in a row to clouds and steadier rain.

Yeah, at first this Summer reminded me of 2014, but it isn't quite the same.  I feel like that year we at least had longer stretches of nice weather mixed in, despite being BN overall.  That August had some very cool mornings here, but also some beautiful days as well.  This year it's pretty much cloudy/showery and then occasionally we get a 2-3 day stretch of sun.  Remember 2015?  The warmth stretched right into fall that year.

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No surprise that the 0z Euro is much weaker with 99L as everything before October has struggled in that region since 2012.

 

0z

 

oz.gif.2672035bd11ceb4994d73bf063cd2236.gif

 

12z

12z.gif.249adc65a8aa871401230dc900d67b9e.gif

 

 

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