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Violentweatherfan

March 13-14 Storm

880 posts in this topic

Total QPF line shows 2.5" cutting through central SEPA. The low is so close it's over south jersey yet 10 miles NW of I95 stays snow, outrageous wouldn't think that was possible. 

 

 

 

I think between the dynamics of the storm bombing and actually having a good airmass in place to start keeps the r/s line at bay while the thermal levels begin collapsing s and e toward the slp center.

 

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16 minutes ago, delijoe said:

0z GFS is rain for basically everyone I-95 on SE and even interior areas don't get much.  The track is much further inland.  If the Euro caves I think we're in trouble.

awful awful analysis. read more, post less

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2 minutes ago, snowwors2 said:

Hate that stuff...Joe needs to spend less time in the deli and more time learning models!!

This would be fun, even at half these amounts!!

snku_acc.us_ne.png.c304d629d5e24116066b9

shemATC is gonna lose it when he sees this. 

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Ukie sounds like a big hit as well per MA thread....no details yet. Good signals still. I promised myself I wouldnt lock into this big storm scenario until 12z Sunday earliest and I still admittedly remain skeptical even with all of the positive supporting data staring me in the face. Intrigued.....borderline excited, but I am not sold yet. Ghosts of March '01 haunt me to this day. Safely conservative and cautiously optimistic for me is the way to go with this for now.


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3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Ukie sounds like a big hit as well per MA thread....no details yet. Good signals still. I promised myself I wouldnt lock into this big storm scenario until 12z Sunday earliest and I still admittedly remain skeptical even with all of the positive supporting data staring me in the face. Intrigued.....borderline excited, but I am not sold yet. Ghosts of March '01 haunt me to this day. Safely conservative for me is the way to go with this for now.

Not a bad idea with March 2001 as the #7 analog for this 

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3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Bucks County quite the gradient.....26" NW part of the county to 5" SE part of the county.

 

big shift towards euro though...not too concerned. I mean there's a chance we see that gradient but it's going to change every 6 hours. the shift towards the euro is all I wanted to see at this time.

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5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Bucks County quite the gradient.....26" NW part of the county to 5" SE part of the county.

 

A lot of mixing, or dry slotting? Looks great for here, but that gradient is still a little scary.

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8 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

big shift towards euro though...not too concerned. I mean there's a chance we see that gradient but it's going to change every 6 hours. the shift towards the euro is all I wanted to see at this time.

This

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18 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Ukie sounds like a big hit as well per MA thread....no details yet. Good signals still. I promised myself I wouldnt lock into this big storm scenario until 12z Sunday earliest and I still admittedly remain skeptical even with all of the positive supporting data staring me in the face. Intrigued.....borderline excited, but I am not sold yet. Ghosts of March '01 haunt me to this day. Safely conservative and cautiously optimistic for me is the way to go with this for now.

 

They haunt me as well. Keep tellin myself models are much better now though. I think they were riding the eta back then because it was having a good winter lol.

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11 minutes ago, mattinpa said:

A lot of mixing, or dry slotting? Looks great for here, but that gradient is still a little scary.

On the this gfs run it's most due lost precip to rain.  Also, I don't think we need to worry about dryslotting at all since this isn't a Miller B. 

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6 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said:

On the this gfs run it's most due lost precip to rain.  Also, I don't think we need to worry about dryslotting at all since this isn't a Miller B. 

Thanks. Heard the GFS mean was east, the Ukie s good and the Canadian is most east but better. So not too worried about the GFS OP run yet.

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1 minute ago, mattinpa said:

Thanks. Heard the GFS mean was east, the Ukie s good and the Canadian is most east but better. So not too worried about the GFS OP run yet.

Over in the NYC forum someone posted the op... I think. 

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1 minute ago, mattinpa said:

MA forum saying they taint on the Euro, but NYC forum very happy. I guess we are fine here based on the maps?

It's the best ECM run for all of us so far, widespread 18-22" SEPA-Jersey and North Delaware

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1 minute ago, RedSky said:

It's the best ECM run for all of us so far, widespread 18-22" SEPA-Jersey and North Delaware

Great to hear! I was a bit confused because of the different reactions. I'll check back tomorrow. Good night, all.

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16 minutes ago, RedSky said:

It's the best ECM run for all of us so far, widespread 18-22" SEPA-Jersey and North Delaware

few lollipops near 30 inches moving north and west of PHL into NNJ

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2 minutes ago, Animal said:

few lollipops near 30 inches moving north and west of PHL into NNJ

Wait until Newman wakes up and sees the Kuchera making Berks ground zero with 34" lol

 

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1 minute ago, RedSky said:

Wait until Newman wakes up and sees the Kuchera making Berks ground zero with 34" lol

 

This storm may "save"Glenn "Hurricane's" Schwartz winter forecast again.

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said:

Not a fan of those kuchera maps, better offf ignoring them.

Fully aware they can be way off learned the hard way in February

 

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The usually conservative EUROwx map 24-30" large portion of eastern PA, upper portions Bucks,Montco, Chester north. January 2016 levels. Far from nailed down however.

 

 

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Okay sorry about earlier I was looking at a premature map... better to say the 0z GFS is a close shave for SE of I-95... I find it hard to believe that PHL could get 16" and TTN 6" in this setup but whatever....

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