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1.7.17 Snow Event


Ralph Wiggum

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Philly would get 3" on the new Ukie, winter is fun again 

 

 


There's just something about tracking a storm for 36 hours from now while moderate snow is currently falling and will likely overperform in some nearby areas based on radar trends. Just seeing the weak coastal starting to enhance precip last few frames. Yes, winter is fun again!
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5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:


There's just something about tracking a storm for 36 hours from now while moderate snow is currently falling and will likely overperform in some nearby areas based on radar trends. Just seeing the weak coastal starting to enhance precip last few frames. Yes, winter is fun again!

Some will get snow on snow Saturday - that's a treat.

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I hastily posted that 6z was a disaster but quickly deleted it after further review. GFS hasnt changed....holding its ground with minimal accums for South Jersey, nothing West of the NJ Turnpike. 6z NAM may have just come to its senses and cut precip on NW shield a rather fair amount. Maybe a hiccup but this run seems more reasonable. Blend of NAM/GFS is in order. Agree with Glenn, max is up to an inch West of I95 and even that will prove a challenge imho.



Eta: SREF backed off totals for PHL as well. Road trip to Cape May might be in order.
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My rule of thumb is we (those of us in SE PA) rarely see snow from a storm that produces snow on the Carolina coast or Norfolk. My head tells me the back edge is 295, but my heart is holding out hope that I can put a fresh dusting on last night's snow.

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I thought the same thing about 06z being a bust, then remembered the snow totals are for only wave 2 at this point (unlike the combined totals we've been looking at the last 24 hours).  Another additional 2 just west of the river, going to 6+ by the shore.  Definitely not confident of the western edge of this, especially with how razor tight the precip shield looks to be.

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12z NAM ticked SE again. Notable changes on Western side of precip early in the run yields the dagger in the heart solution West of I95. The snow in Eastern Tennessee which would have been our snow to watch has been decreasing each run and is basically non-existent at 12z. Good luck South Jersey....you should still get clipped.

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10 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:


Lucy plays for Boston. I think she's undercover. They dont experience the same level of fail as we do down here. For every football pulled away from them in Boston they have 10 interceptions and takeaways of our storms.

So prophetic, this 12z run, if you look at the slide for 17z Saturday it looks like they carved out the precip for SE PA and plopped it up over Boston.

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3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Would anyone be surprised if the 12Z GFS takes a jump NW now? I know I wouldn't. We are probably honing in on a solution somewhere inbetween the 12z 12km NAM and the 6z GFS regardless imo.

Not me. The difference between some actual snow and nothing is crazy narrow with this one. I wouldn't be blow away by 4-5 inches, yet I would also not be surprised if we barely see a flake! 

 

The classic 0"- 6" forecast 

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As expected the 12z GFS ticked N and W with precip shield. A split between the NAM and the GFS (both trending towards each other) seems most realistic. West of I95, sorry, not our storm. Maybe up to an inch right along I95....if we are lucky. Gradient should go from virtually nothing N and W of I95 to a 3-6" event far South Jersey and extreme SE Jersey coast.

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