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Severe Weather Risk Tuesday 10/4/2016


Jim Martin

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As far as I could tell there was not a tornado on the ground at any point, but that's just from what I saw.  We drove just north of the hook through Moore, but couldn't see much. I think the storm may not have been surface based at the time but I'm not sure.  It was a great chase.  

 

Photo during sunset in Verden.

IMG_5404.JPG

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I was in the hook of the Chickasha-Moore storm most of its life-cycle. It had a decent RFD cut in near Tuttle and that was probably the closest it got to producing. Had a brief funnel and some decent rotation, but the storm seemed to be struggling to remain surface based most of the time. Had the storm fired 30 minutes earlier it would have probably been a much different story - and you'd have had several TORs as the cell moved through the southern end of the OKC metro. 

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7 hours ago, David Reimer said:

I was in the hook of the Chickasha-Moore storm most of its life-cycle. It had a decent RFD cut in near Tuttle and that was probably the closest it got to producing. Had a brief funnel and some decent rotation, but the storm seemed to be struggling to remain surface based most of the time. Had the storm fired 30 minutes earlier it would have probably been a much different story - and you'd have had several TORs as the cell moved through the southern end of the OKC metro. 

Agreed on the timing aspect. An hour earlier, and at least one good hose would've been likely. It was pretty irritating at the time, having sat around watching turkey towers crap themselves all afternoon, only to blossom into a storm right as CINH started filling in. But it was probably for the best, for multiple reasons. Even focusing strictly on the chaser aspect of the setup, I was very concerned about what might transpire if a cyclic storm developed yesterday around CHK. Every significant tornado event in the metro for several years besides El Reno has been partially defused by multiple attractive target areas (5/6/15, 5/20/13), and I honestly foresee more problems -- potentially serious -- the next time the metro and its immediate surroundings are the sole and obvious bullseye.

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NAM-4km, WRF-ARW, WRF-NMM all showing a squall line type development tomorrow. 0-6km shear seems strong enough for supercells, so I am sure this is worthy of at least a slight risk tomorrow from Oklahoma to parts of Iowa. As of now, the predicted 0-3km and 0-1km SRH values definitely show the possibility of tornadic supercells in NE Kansas.

edit: 30mi west of Kansas City, 00z tomorrow, (18z NAM) MUCAPE=3272 J/kg, eff-SRH = 353 m2/s2, 0-6km shear=51 kt

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Yeah, keeping an eye on tomorrow, but I'm not too impressed as of yet. It's really uncommon for any setup with a surging cold front ushering in legit chilly air to go big, even south of the triple point. In this case, we're talking about significant snowfall over the Sandhills concurrent with the storms we're rooting for tomorrow afternoon, which is a real red flag. Maybe we can sneak out a tornado or two around 21-23z, though.

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This isn't your typical undercut anafrontal setup with a sheared out positively tilted upper trough though, I'll say that.

Also regarding the snow thing, there was a full-blown blizzard going on 10/4/13 in the Black Hills and E into SD/N NE. I'm not really sure that's an ideal anecdote for this time of year.

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1 hour ago, pbrussell said:

Sitting in the Kansas City area at work now. There hasn't been a break in the clouds all day here. Still very cool. If things aren't "heating up" so to speak NW of here, nothing too exciting should take place tonight.

Still considering a late season chase though.

Just purely eyeballing the obs, the warm front is sitting in an unusual position just barely into SE Nebraska and SW Iowa currently but snaking well up to Des Moines and south of there.. I think Kansas still has a better shot but thus far, the warm front is lining up well for the enhanced area (pending next outlook in an hour). 

Screenshot_2016-10-06-13-40-12.jpg

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Tornado Watch out for central Kansas to SE Nebraska/SW Iowa. Fairly high probs on hail and tornadoes.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0493.html

Quote

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 493
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   210 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

   * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
     SOUTHWESTERN IOWA
     CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS
     NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI
     SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA

   * EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 210 PM UNTIL
     900 PM CDT.

   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
     A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
     WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3
       INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
     ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

   SUMMARY...A RAPID INCREASE IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
   THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL
   INCLUDE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS...BEFORE UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A SQUALL
   LINE OCCURS AHEAD OF A SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT.

   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTHEAST OF
   SHENANDOAH IOWA TO 20 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF MEDICINE LODGE
   KANSAS.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
   WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

Tornadoes

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes 

High (70%)

Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes

Mod (40%)

Wind

Probability of 10 or more severe wind events

Low (20%)

Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots

Low (20%)

Hail

Probability of 10 or more severe hail events

High (90%)

Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches

High (70%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind

Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

High (>95%)

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Wish I could be down around Topeka also but financial restrictions are going to limit me to southeast nebraska/sw iowa unless something major happens within a reasonable distance.

giphy.gif

 

Promising sign things might verify watching this supercell ongoing southeast of Wichita before the 'main show' starts.

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3 minutes ago, Jonbo said:

Wish I could be down around Topeka also but financial restrictions are going to limit me to southeast nebraska/sw iowa unless something major happens within a reasonable distance.

giphy.gif

 

Promising sign things might verify watching this supercell ongoing southeast of Wichita before the 'main show' starts.

I'm getting the feeling that everything will go linear before I can get there anyway. Storm initiation is occurring wayyyy west of me. 

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