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lookingnorth

OK/AR/KS/MO Winter 2016-17 Winter Discussion

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4 minutes ago, Cerakoter1984 said:

Still not that comfortable with NWS missing highs by 2-4 degrees too warm on a daily basis this time of year. Just a thought going forward.

18z NAM came in a tad cooler than 12z. It's pretty much in line with the Euro whereas the 12z GFS keeps most of OK above freezing the entire weekend.

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34 minutes ago, Weatherdemon said:

18z NAM came in a tad cooler than 12z. It's pretty much in line with the Euro whereas the 12z GFS keeps most of OK above freezing the entire weekend.

Saw that. Euro brought down a much larger cold core with this run also which I found to be pretty interesting.

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2 hours ago, STL Scott said:

Of that 3- 4. Over .5- 1.0 Of ice?

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-J320AZ using Tapatalk
 

Verbatim...it is showing 0.38" of frozen QPF on the initial push from Friday into Saturday morning. Educated guess...1/2 of that is IP and the other half ZR.

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This may totally be wishful thinking, but I tend to believe that the cold push will be stronger than the models are advertising.  I've only lived in the Southern plains for 4 years, but I've yet to see a situation like this where models nailed temperatures.  Invariably, the cold push is faster and stronger than advertised.  Sometimes, the differences are incremental, and other times, they are quite large, and with a storm like this even incremental shifts to the cooler might make a massive difference in p-types and freezing line.  Bottom line, I'd hate to be the forecaster on this one.  There is just so little margin for error in so many heavily populated areas.  

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4 minutes ago, NJ_Ken said:

This may totally be wishful thinking, but I tend to believe that the cold push will be stronger than the models are advertising.  I've only lived in the Southern plains for 4 years, but I've yet to see a situation like this where models nailed temperatures.  Invariably, the cold push is faster and stronger than advertised.  Sometimes, the differences are incremental, and other times, they are quite large, and with a storm like this even incremental shifts to the cooler might make a massive difference in p-types and freezing line.  Bottom line, I'd hate to be the forecaster on this one.  There is just so little margin for error in so many heavily populated areas.  

I think that's a big problem with the other problem being the models don't handle the warm nose of the LLJ well.

I think every cold spell this year has been several degrees colder than forecast in OK. Especially the last one. It seemed every AFD was dropping the temps a few degrees.

I'm not dogging any forecasters but the models haven't handled the cold pushes well at all.

Freezing rain and snow events are impossible to forecast within 50-100 mile in OK (especially NE OK) up until a day or two before they occur so I'll be addictively watching the models for the next 2 days.

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For those in northern/ central OK and extreme southern MO, I'm not really buying the warmer GFS. I believe these areas will start out as freezing rain but the accumulation impact may not be as much because the freezing line will work its way north of you on Saturday. Places like St. Louis, Kansas City, Wichita, Des Moines and Omaha need to prepare for an ice storm. 

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29 minutes ago, KC metro said:

For those in northern/ central OK and extreme southern MO, I'm not really buying the warmer GFS. I believe these areas will start out as freezing rain but the accumulation impact may not be as much because the freezing line will work its way north of you on Saturday. Places like St. Louis, Kansas City, Wichita, Des Moines and Omaha need to prepare for an ice storm. 

I've never been in an ice storm. Do you just basically prepare like a hurricane? Does the cities put salt on roads? Or does that not work with ice? We live in a community in Olathe that has power lines under the ground, so I would think power will not be an issue.

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4 minutes ago, kwolfe904 said:

I've never been in an ice storm. Do you just basically prepare like a hurricane? Does the cities put salt on roads? Or does that not work with ice? We live in a community in Olathe that has power lines under the ground, so I would think power will not be an issue.

The grass makes a cool crunching sound if you walk on it.  Power lines may go down, trees may lose limbs, or the entire tree may come down if enough ice accumulates. Don't park your car under any trees. The roads will get slick, sidewalks, etc... get slick. The main thing though is trees and powerlines. 

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11 minutes ago, kwolfe904 said:

I've never been in an ice storm. Do you just basically prepare like a hurricane? Does the cities put salt on roads? Or does that not work with ice? We live in a community in Olathe that has power lines under the ground, so I would think power will not be an issue.

I was in the Enid ice storm 2002. The city lost power for five days. It wasn't the in city lines that went down, the feeder lines from the power plant to the city went down, along with the poles. 

 

The city put salt on the roads, but it was slick for quite a while. A friend that works for the city said the trucks had issues getting gas, since no where had electricity to pump. It was bad. 

 

http://climate.ok.gov/summaries/event/Oklahoma_Ice_Storm_01_2002.pdf

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Oh and I forgot... People buy all the bread and milk out from the stores. It's some weird fascination with bread and milk. Personally, I'd buy all the chips and soda. It's going to warm up on Sunday, so you aren't going to starve to death.

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With this system, many will be fortunate because the temps will warm as the event progresses. I remember after the ice storm of January 2007 it got bitterly cold after the storm ended. That added insult to injury. 

 

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3 minutes ago, JoMo said:

Oh and I forgot... People buy all the bread and milk out from the stores. It's some weird fascination with bread and milk. Personally, I'd buy all the chips and soda. It's going to warm up on Sunday, so you aren't going to starve to death.

Truth. I worked at a grocery store during the 2002 ice storm. The day after power went out, we had a line all the way to the back of the store. Bread and can isle was bare afterwards. 

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So I have been looking at the charts and I am trying to figure out exactly what to look for as far as the southward progression of the cold air. I am trying to see why the GFS stalls the freezing line north of I-44 while the EURO runs it into parts of NW Arkansas. I get the fact that it is hard to get the cold air over the Boston Mountains of Arkansas, but what synoptically is stalling the progression of the cold in this area? I have a handle on the general pattern (I think), but still have much to learn and your insight is invaluable. Thanks a bunch!

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Ice storms typically make a very pretty landscape to look at.  If it weren't for the potential for significant destruction and terrible driving conditions they would be more enjoyable.  

If you have any experience driving on snow don't be fooled into thinking that ice is the same.  You're ability to start, stop, and not slide is often non-existent.  Pull some You Tube videos of car wrecks on ice to get an idea. 

Just stay home and enjoy the scenery until it warms enough on Sunday!  

And take lots of pics!!!! 

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3 minutes ago, Wx 24/7 said:

With this system, many will be fortunate because the temps will warm as the event progresses. I remember after the ice storm of January 2007 it got bitterly cold after the storm ended. That added insult to injury. 

 

Yeah that one was very memorable.

Jan%2013%202007%20icestorm.jpg

ice07%20005.jpg

 

Dec was bad as well:

ice_map_121007.png

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43 minutes ago, Wx 24/7 said:

So I have been looking at the charts and I am trying to figure out exactly what to look for as far as the southward progression of the cold air. I am trying to see why the GFS stalls the freezing line north of I-44 while the EURO runs it into parts of NW Arkansas. I get the fact that it is hard to get the cold air over the Boston Mountains of Arkansas, but what synoptically is stalling the progression of the cold in this area? I have a handle on the general pattern (I think), but still have much to learn and your insight is invaluable. Thanks a bunch!

There's a storm system that moves across southern Canada which dislodges the cold air, high pressure builds in behind the storm, but it's going to move more east than south behind the departing storm. The cold airmass is very shallow and it's running into SW flow aloft. So there's no support to push it farther south and it stalls. It then modifies as it gets 'stale'. 

The Euro might be doing the right thing holding the freezing line farther south though as there's going to be a NE flow at the surface (in our neck of the woods) as well as precip. 

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40 minutes ago, Wx 24/7 said:

So I have been looking at the charts and I am trying to figure out exactly what to look for as far as the southward progression of the cold air. I am trying to see why the GFS stalls the freezing line north of I-44 while the EURO runs it into parts of NW Arkansas. I get the fact that it is hard to get the cold air over the Boston Mountains of Arkansas, but what synoptically is stalling the progression of the cold in this area? I have a handle on the general pattern (I think), but still have much to learn and your insight is invaluable. Thanks a bunch!

I am looking forward to any insight anybody can give because I am seeing this like you.  I also can't see why... at least initially... the cold air doesn't keep on driving south.  

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8 minutes ago, JoMo said:

There's a storm system that moves across southern Canada which dislodges the cold air, high pressure builds in behind the storm, but it's going to move more east than south behind the departing storm. The cold airmass is very shallow and it's running into SW flow aloft. So there's no support to push it farther south and it stalls. It then modifies as it gets 'stale'. 

The Euro might be doing the right thing holding the freezing line farther south though as there's going to be a NE flow at the surface (in our neck of the woods) as well as precip. 

That conceptually makes sense. Earlier model runs that were further south had it blocked with slower eastward progression. Need to closely watch the movement of the high in future model runs. Thanks!

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7 hours ago, MUWX said:

Looks like southern Missouri is going to miss out on yet another winter storm. I think we actually want to miss this one but our inability to get a decent winter storm is pretty crazy. 

You're just too far south to reliably get frequent good winter storms... They do happen but not often enough that I would ever consider living there if winter storms were my priority. I moved to Des Moines last year where I currently live for good thunderstorms, and felt any further north would be too far north for my summertime WX standards, but for winter standards even up here I am wishing I were further north still for good snows. This year has been a dud so far even in central IA

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This graphic from WPC more favorable for Oklahoma and southern MO on Friday. That should all push more northward as the weekend progresses.

IMG_3094.PNG

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South Central and Southern MO and Northern and Central OK will start out as freezing rain on Friday. I believe the freezing line will gradually retreat to the north Friday night and Saturday. Much of KS, Kansas City and northern MO will experience freezing rain Friday night and Saturday morning and then again Saturday night. Kansas and northern MO have a chance to stay below freezing at least until Sunday so I would expect the more serious ice accumulations to be in those areas. 

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9 minutes ago, STL Scott said:

Does it look like STL stays in ice until Sat Pm/Sun Am?

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-J320AZ using Tapatalk
 

Looks like it'll be rain Saturday and then back to freezing rain possibly Saturday night and then back to rain Sunday morning. Going to be close temp wise. Friday, Friday night and Saturday morning is when I think St. Louis gets most of their ice.

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