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Interior NW Burbs & Hudson Valley part II - second half 2016


xram

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16 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Feeling disappointed with this event though the snow was nice, even if very little and now melting away. Hoping January can deliver for us.


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How much did you end up with?

I'm honestly not even sure what the forecasting lesson here was. It just did not want to snow meaningfully before the changeover. It seems like there was a general .25" to .5" of liquid in this storm, which is drier than most guidance I looked at.

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28 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

How much did you end up with?

I'm honestly not even sure what the forecasting lesson here was. It just did not want to snow meaningfully before the changeover. It seems like there was a general .25" to .5" of liquid in this storm, which is drier than most guidance I looked at.

Forecasting lesson. Meteorology over modelology. The setup was not conducive for snow, as many on here, including myself, said. You cant have both a system cutting to the west and a high offshore drifting east. It creates a southerly flow with NO mechanism to lock in the cold air, even north and west. Sometimes it's about pattern recognition and not following weenie snow maps. 

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7 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Forecasting lesson. Meteorology over modelology. The setup was not conducive for snow, as many on here, including myself, said. You cant have both a system cutting to the west and a high offshore drifting east. It creates a southerly flow with NO mechanism to lock in the cold air, even north and west. Sometimes it's about pattern recognition and not following weenie snow maps. 

Well, no... most places in the interior verified their snowfall forecasts, as far as I can tell. I'm speaking specifically about central Dutchess which busted pretty bigly. I'm surrounded by significantly higher totals to my S, W, and N.

Plenty of folks were beating the "pattern recognition" drum to insist that nobody, even in the far interior, would see accumulating snows, but 3-5" totals proved pretty common.

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How much did you end up with?

I'm honestly not even sure what the forecasting lesson here was. It just did not want to snow meaningfully before the changeover. It seems like there was a general .25" to .5" of liquid in this storm, which is drier than most guidance I looked at.


I think between 1-2 inches. Elevation mattered. I live in the town of Poughkeepsie near the Pleasant Valley border. Central Dutchess has been the screw zone for far too long and our low elevation relative to surroundings doesn't help. We are either too east, west, south or north in almost every system with few exceptions going back.


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5 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

Well, no... most places in the interior verified their snowfall forecasts, as far as I can tell. I'm speaking specifically about central Dutchess which busted pretty bigly. I'm surrounded by significantly higher totals to my S, W, and N.

Was gonna say, I received my forecasted totals, despite others suggesting little to none :rolleyes:

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1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Forecasting lesson. Meteorology over modelology. The setup was not conducive for snow, as many on here, including myself, said. You cant have both a system cutting to the west and a high offshore drifting east. It creates a southerly flow with NO mechanism to lock in the cold air, even north and west. Sometimes it's about pattern recognition and not following weenie snow maps. 

We verified here on this side of the river. 3-4" 

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