• Member Statistics

    16,542
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    nyrangers1022
    Newest Member
    nyrangers1022
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
Chicago Storm

April 24-30th Severe Potential

Recommended Posts

Are we all really that surprised. I know tors can happen in the Plains and serious events too but more often than not the environment is so ripe that storms explode and go linear quickly.

I think the main reason we didn't get much if any discrete cells was due to the fact that Gary England hardly commented on this the last 7 days so he knew!!

https://twitter.com/garyeOK/status/723714572402593792 

 

Severe Wx next week. Don't buy the hype! Just make your plans and do you thing.. But stay weather aware!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Does anyone know why the NWS issued a PDS watch for strong tornadoes a few hours before the event started when everyone here on this forum could tell it wasn't going to be a big time tornadic outbreak? Is there something you guys were seeing that wasn't evident to them?

I guarantee you that they knew of the issues we were talking about. Dr. Forbes was expecting a tornado outbreak, too. They have a LOT of experience in this field. I guess they didn't expect the storms to become linear so quick. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

LOL... 00z NAM hour 72. Nope, not biting again.

Hmmm... NAM shows that because it does not have the same degree of lingering morning convection + a large MCS down south that limits both moisture return and the low-level wind fields that the GFS shows. Will be interesting to see it evolve. Much different looking system in my mind than this one. Like meridional flow was the fly in the ointment with this one, lingering warm sector convection or a giant downstream MCS could be it for friday.

 

NAM is showing the same crazy environment with this run that it did on the 18Z run--will be interesting to watch it evolve. Just for posterity, here is a sounding for 7pm friday near OKC... The GFS, like I said, shows something much less potent at the same time due to the deleterious effects of lingering convection and the downstream MCS. Anybody care to chime in what the euro is showing? 

post-7962-0-70659400-1461725623_thumb.pn

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I guarantee you that they knew of the issues we were talking about. Dr. Forbes was expecting a tornado outbreak, too. They have a LOT of experience in this field. I guess they didn't expect the storms to become linear so quick. 

 

Yeah, Forbes had a torcon of 7 was usually is pretty high and expected at least a few relatively strong tornadoes today. Never expected to only see 4 reports. All brief rope tornado/funnels

 

today.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

LOL... 00z NAM hour 72. Nope, not biting again.

The 0z NAM portrays a very significant setup across central Oklahoma. Extreme CAPE, steep mid-level lapse rates, and quite a bit stronger shear than today. I see the slightest hint of some VBV on the soundings across the area, but it's insignificant and above 500mb so not sure it would matter.

 

We'll see if the NAM has to catch up or is leading the pack. It was the first model to consistently indicate VBV for today.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah, Forbes had a torcon of 7 was usually is pretty high and expected at least a few relatively strong tornadoes today. Never expected to only see 4 reports. All brief rope tornado/funnels

 

today.gif

 

 

April 2011 averaged 29.5 tornadoes a day in comparison.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

One could argue that the HRRR and HRRRX did quite well with this evening. Got the far west initiation, widespread coverage, linear transition, limited significant UH streaks (correctly in SW OK) and the localized damaging wind threat in OKC all pretty much spot on. Given the complexity of the setup, I have to say I'm pretty impressed.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...  
SOUTHEASTERN PAWNEE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...  
NORTHEASTERN CREEK COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...  
CENTRAL TULSA COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...  
 
* UNTIL 1030 PM CDT  
 
* AT 1000 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL ROTATION  
THAT COULD PRODUCE TORNADOES AT ANY TIME WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE  
EXTENDING FROM 2 MILES NORTHWEST OF WESTPORT TO 2 MILES SOUTH OF  
KELLYVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...  
TULSA... BROKEN ARROW...  
SAND SPRINGS... BIXBY...  
SAPULPA... JENKS...  
GLENPOOL... SKIATOOK...  
MANNFORD... SPERRY...  
KELLYVILLE... WESTPORT...  
TURLEY... WALNUT CREEK STATE PARK...  
KEYSTONE STATE PARK... GRAY...  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

LOL... 00z NAM hour 72. Nope, not biting again.

This is something that I've been following for a few days and I'm not sold on it, but I'm definitely intrigued. When it first showed up on the GFS/Euro it looked like morning/ongoing junk would ruin the setup ala 2015. If the atmosphere can destabilize then I definitely see this as a chase day. I'm not completely sure that we wouldn't run into some of the vbv issue again, low level lapse rates weren't great last I looked, but this is a day to watch.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not trying to be that guy, but it's an issue of the wind profiles, not instability, that causes storms to go linear quickly. 

 

One could argue that it is both, really... wind fields dictate storm mode and the orthogonality of the shear vector to the initiating boundary, but instability plays a role in how quickly storms may grow (in a given amount of time before propagating off the boundary) as well as how many storms initiate/break the cap for a given amount of forcing. It all works together and can have many contributing factors from both thermodynamics and kinematics.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is something that I've been following for a few days and I'm not sold on it, but I'm definitely intrigued. When it first showed up on the GFS/Euro it looked like morning/ongoing junk would ruin the setup ala 2015. If the atmosphere can destabilize then I definitely see this as a chase day. I'm not completely sure that we wouldn't run into some of the vbv issue again, low level lapse rates weren't great last I looked, but this is a day to watch.

I know this has been beat to death over the past few days, but since you mentioned 2015; it's good that the EML verified and wasn't the reason for a bust. Going EML-less really sucks.

 

FWIW... Forbes has a TORCON of 4 for Friday and Saturday. I think that's pretty typical of him in the spring when there's uncertainty and/or an event in the near-term that needs to be resolved. I just don't buy the NAM right now because it's hour 72 and there's not model agreement - unlike this event. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I know this has been beat to death over the past few days, but since you mentioned 2015; it feels good that the EML verified and wasn't the reason for a bust.

FWIW... Forbes has a TORCON of 4 for Friday and Saturday. I think that's pretty typical of him in the spring when there's uncertainty and/or an event in the near-term that needs to be resolved. I just don't buy the NAM right now because it's hour 72 and there's not model agreement - unlike this event.

I believe the NAM was decent for the event today even from long range for it. To me, this is one of those events that could come together for a decent chase day. It has issues, but I wouldn't write it off.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I believe the NAM was decent for the event today even from long range for it. To me, this is one of those events that could come together for a decent chase day. It has issues, but I wouldn't write it off.

NAM is almost always the one that's got a robust event past hour 48, but then it usually comes back to reality. The thing that set this event apart from the rest is that NAM wasn't alone with a robust event. In the case of Friday, it is alone.

 

I'm not writing it off... I'm just not biting yet.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I will say... this is something we didn't have with today's event. SREF has 45% sigtor probability for Friday, this far out. Hell, I don't think it had higher probabilities at any point for this event. That doesn't speak to the potential/parameters as much as it probably does to the fact that it sees precipitation aligned with the parameters this time.

 

jzNWhxC.gif

 

But SREF is a NAM off-shoot, or something like that... so yeah.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Damn....my car port is gone and flew into my neighbor's car!! And power is going in and out!!!

 

It get a bit windy? West Tulsa right? I saw another report of a car port being blown away up by Pawhuska.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I will say... this is something we didn't have with today's event. SREF has 45% sigtor probability for Friday, this far out. Hell, I don't think it had higher probabilities at any point for this event. That doesn't speak to the potential/parameters as much as it probably does to the fact that it sees precipitation aligned with the parameters this time.

 

jzNWhxC.gif

 

But SREF is a NAM off-shoot, or something like that... so yeah.

Interested in the Day 3 outlook for friday that the SPC will issue tonight, given the wide range of possibilities. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interested in the Day 3 outlook for friday that the SPC will issue tonight, given the wide range of possibilities. 

Slight risk... maybe a mention of upgrade when details become clearer

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It get a bit windy? West Tulsa right? I saw another report of a car port being blown away up by Pawhuska.

Yes, I live on the west side of Tulsa near I-44. Travis Meyer said 78 MPH wind gust two blocks south of me.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Don't be fooled by the NAM, crapvection will rule the day on Friday. 

Probably. Needless to say... But i'd be fine if it didn't.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Even though there's still a whole bunch of warnings on the squall in E OK, I'm going to bed. As of now, there's been 415 severe tstorm warnings today over 13 states. Aside from the tornado bust, the biggest surprise to me was the intensity of the activity in the Ohio Valley.

 

xVkMgCq.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

LOL... 00z NAM hour 72. Nope, not biting again.

 

Yeah, needless to say, no one will remember today if that ends up verifying. The rest of the models look like a wash out early on via junk convection (which seems highly likely).

 

Looks like a whole bunch of last year's problem.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.