BuffaloWeather Posted August 13, 2016 Author Share Posted August 13, 2016 17 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Scratch that lol Found something similar under "spotters" Still can't find the page that showed "seasonal snowfall" but this will do Yeah my link with that saved data doesn't work anymore either. What URL did you find with similar info so I can Bookmark? This website isn't band for the main reporting sites. http://w2.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=buf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted August 13, 2016 Share Posted August 13, 2016 11 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Lake Erie has tied its record for the day at 78. It has hit 80 before though, might get close to it not sure. Lots of rain incoming. Up to 79F today, only one degree off tying the record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 13, 2016 Author Share Posted August 13, 2016 52 minutes ago, WNash said: Up to 79F today, only one degree off tying the record. I know lake temp right now doesn't mean to much for the winter season, but when the deeper water gets to record temps that can help keep the lake from freezing a tad longer in winter time with upwelling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 13, 2016 Author Share Posted August 13, 2016 Lake Erie deepest parts are the ones that freeze last. Our lake effect season last another few weeks than those in Ohio does. About 30 miles offshore from between Dunkirk and Hamburg has the deepest parts with the maximum depth being 210 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 13, 2016 Author Share Posted August 13, 2016 Figures that the day I have plans to go to the fair and the Bills game it's going to rain all day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted August 13, 2016 Share Posted August 13, 2016 Just started to pour here, severe thunderstorm warning issued.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted August 13, 2016 Share Posted August 13, 2016 Over 3/4" in 20 minutes, still pouring.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted August 13, 2016 Share Posted August 13, 2016 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Lake Erie deepest parts are the ones that freeze last. Our lake effect season last another few weeks than those in Ohio does. About 30 miles offshore from between Dunkirk and Hamburg has the deepest parts with the maximum depth being 210 feet. Awesome images - thanks for posting these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted August 13, 2016 Share Posted August 13, 2016 Lake Erie has been absolutely shredding convection in my area the last 2 days (really the last 2+ months for that matter - I can't have more than 1.5" of rain since mid June). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted August 13, 2016 Share Posted August 13, 2016 Temperature dropped like a rock..Over an inch of precip and still falling.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 13, 2016 Author Share Posted August 13, 2016 2 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Just started to pour here, severe thunderstorm warning issued.. 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Over 3/4" in 20 minutes, still pouring.. Nice! highest gust? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 13, 2016 Author Share Posted August 13, 2016 1 hour ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Awesome images - thanks for posting these. No problem. I'm always trying to learn more information about the Great Lakes region. It really is a unique place in the world. 6 quadrillion gallons of fresh water; one-fifth of the world's fresh surface water (only the polar ice caps and Lake Baikal in Siberia contain more) 1 hour ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Lake Erie has been absolutely shredding convection in my area the last 2 days (really the last 2+ months for that matter - I can't have more than 1.5" of rain since mid June). The rain shadow has been in full effect, but it's been raining all day here off and on. Lots of thunder and a few strikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 13, 2016 Author Share Posted August 13, 2016 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Temperature dropped like a rock..Over an inch of precip and still falling.. What weather station/software is this? I've been looking into getting one for this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 13, 2016 Author Share Posted August 13, 2016 Here comes your rain Bumble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted August 13, 2016 Share Posted August 13, 2016 I use Chaney instruments (aka acurite) 5in1 weather station, it has been extremely accurate for me, not as good as Davis obviously but for the price it's a nice buy.. They came out with a new app(my acurite) which is what I posted.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted August 13, 2016 Share Posted August 13, 2016 Incredible severe thunderstorm on Lake Canadarago in northern Otsego County 90 minutes ago. We were at our cabin, looking west across the lake. The leading edge looked like a blast wave from a bomb as it whipped across the lake from the west. We were hit with gusts that I would estimate 60-70 MPH. Multiple trees down. Took our 40 pound double kayak from face down and flipped it face up. Should be some good severe reports from that one. The only comparable experience I have had with a thunderstorm was in the Adirondack derecho in 1995. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted August 14, 2016 Share Posted August 14, 2016 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Here comes your rain Bumble. Nope. Shredded. Sprinkles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted August 14, 2016 Share Posted August 14, 2016 1 hour ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Nope. Shredded. Sprinkles. Yep. A whole lot of nothing. Can't wait to get past the warm weather this year so we can actually get some rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 14, 2016 Author Share Posted August 14, 2016 1 hour ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Nope. Shredded. Sprinkles. 38 minutes ago, WNash said: Yep. A whole lot of nothing. Can't wait to get past the warm weather this year so we can actually get some rain. I thought this time it would make it. We got quite a bit of rain here today though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted August 14, 2016 Share Posted August 14, 2016 Finished with 1.6" imby, 2.3" for the week.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted August 14, 2016 Share Posted August 14, 2016 That 0.01-0.10 area aligns nicely with the predominantly SW wind from the last couple days. I wonder if the degree of the drought in the lee of Lake Erie is due in part to very persistent lake breezes resulting from considerably higher than normal surface temps. I hate hot summers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 14, 2016 Author Share Posted August 14, 2016 9 hours ago, WNash said: That 0.01-0.10 area aligns nicely with the predominantly SW wind from the last couple days. I wonder if the degree of the drought in the lee of Lake Erie is due in part to very persistent lake breezes resulting from considerably higher than normal surface temps. I hate hot summers. It's easier to warm the air when the ground is dry in cmoparison to a wet ground. Just like water is harder to heat up than air is. It's been a pretty persistant SW wind this summer. Figures we get it when we don't want it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 16, 2016 Author Share Posted August 16, 2016 You guys ready? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 16, 2016 Author Share Posted August 16, 2016 As we know we will be entering a La Nina during the Fall/Winter period this year and early next. The strength of the La Nina is still unknown, but here is the data for La Ninas following Ninos. La Ninas following El Ninos, since 1950: 1954-55- 84.8 1964-65- 70.9 1970-71- 97.0 1973-74- 88.7 1988-89- 67.4 1995-96- 141.4 1998-99- 100.5 2007-08- 103.8 2010-11- 111.8 Average: 96.3" Cool neutral or weak Nina following El Nino, since 1950: 1954-55- 84.8 1959-60- 115.6 1964-65- 70.9 1966-67- 66.1 1980-81- 60.9 1983-84- 132.5 1995-96- 141.4 2005-06- 78.2 Average: 93.8" Cool neutral or weak Nina following strong El Nino, since 1950: 1966-67-66.1 1983-84- 132.5 Average: 99.3" Total Average: 96.5" Safe to say that a normal Buffalo winter in the snowfall department is likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 Hazardous weather outlook .STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE BY MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON... AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING GIVING WAY TO SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. IF ENOUGH CLEARING AND DAYTIME HEATING CAN OCCUR... THEN STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES REGION EASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL REGION. WHILE THE PRIMARY THREAT ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL... THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO FOR LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 severe thunderstorm watches in Ontario attm are going south of a line from Sarnia to Barrie to Brockville and Cornwall, with the main risks being heavy downpours and high wind gusts, and a slight risk of a Tornado (sfc low at 15Z in Southern Lake Huron west of Goderich). my opinion, given the satellite presentation attm, I'm thinking the highest risk for severe will be east of a line from Delhi/Hamilton to the Niagara River, just because it's looking like they'll be most likely to get the thermal boost to go along with the synoptic support with breaks in the clouds. The other areas of the watch (London, K-W, Toronto, Peterborough, Kingston, Brockville) look a lot more dependent on trying to get the sun either to break though in those areas, or close enough to the areas that they increase the thermal gradient on the warm front. thoughts before the storms better organize for most of upstate NY with the cold front? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 I'm in your prime area in central Otsego County. We had about 5 minutes of sun earlier. Now overcast, intermittent drizzle and light rain. When these scenarios go bust for us (as they usually do, this not being Oklahoma) it's because we can't clear out and get the sun to heat and destabilize things. So if I don't see some sun soon I will be pessimistic about anything other than garden variety thunderstorms later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 also, question for the crowd, if they are watching. odds on supplemental raobs being sent up at BUF/PIT/IAD/ALB at 18/21Z for supplemental analysis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 3 minutes ago, Jim Marusak said: also, question for the crowd, if they are watching. odds on supplemental raobs being sent up at BUF/PIT/IAD/ALB at 18/21Z for supplemental analysis? I ended up throwing toronto to just south of cornwall in the tornado risk this morning. Not looking quite as good attm as the effective warm front looks a bit more south now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 6 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: I ended up throwing toronto to just south of cornwall in the tornado risk this morning. Not looking quite as good attm as the effective warm front looks a bit more south now. I could see why you did it, and I wouldn't give up on that quite yet. yea, the odds are dipping a bit with the cloud cover as of 16z. but with the latest 17Z visible satellite shot in, it looks like some sun is getting into southern Halton/Peel Regions as well as trying to poke into southern Durham region and even towards Etobicoke. Going to be close to see how this develops. the 17Z and 18Z obs may be the tellers for the rest of the day here. waiting on the 17z attm in Southern Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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