AllWeather Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Just waking up? Euro is SIGNIFICANTLY different than all the runs yesterday. Much weaker and very GFS-like now. Very interesting. The trough kicks negatively a few hours too slow, and the storm never runs up the coast. Instead, it just glides to the ENE quickly like the GFS had been showing. Very interesting developments and not good if you're looking for big snows. We'll see what the ensembles say. If there's any consolation, the CMC is a big hit for the SE half of PA, especially along I-81. RPM (our in-house model) is similar to the CMC...in fact, it's so amped up that it brings mixing to Lancaster, Berks, & Chester counties. Lots of disagreement on the models that will probably be ironed out today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Seeing the Euro flip doesn't seem to be good news at all. Not this close to the event I'd think... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 I still think this ends up being a bigger storm N&E and not south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 How can we blow this thing away from us? Yes, I know, blasphome, but once I've had contact with the sun, I'm over winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 I have to say that my respect for Bernie Rayno is steadily increasing with each storm this winter. I watched his afternoon video yesterday, and he didn't seem completely sold on the western extent of the storm, despite what the non-US globals were showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Feeling like it won't snow (accumulate) in hbg. Gotta be in NYC Sunday and come home that night so that's fine! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Swing and a miss on the NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Euro looks bad, but we gets 60s next week so I could care less about a small amount of slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Euro looks bad, but we gets 60s next week so I could care less about a small amount of slop. 100% agree. I was all in if we were going to get a 6" plus storm. But with the latest trends I'd be just as happy if it all stayed south of the MD line.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Looks like the proverbial swing and a miss. Well you know what they say about first instincts. Perhaps I should have stayed the course? Horst said that while southern Lanco might get brushed with light snow tomorrow night, there will be a sharp northern edge and northern areas may see nada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Storm gone. We can drive to NYC tomorrow with little worry, yay! The Euro has sucked all winter. Just terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 The Euro has backed off on the warmth for next week, especially north of 80. After showing 65-70+ a couple days ago, now it's not even reaching 60 for northern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Rare GFS win this time. Euro EPS & UKMET rarely lose under 96 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Rare GFS win this time. Euro EPS & UKMET rarely lose under 96 hours. Euro has lost all season since the upgrade. It's flat-out sucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Euro has lost all season since the upgrade. It's flat-out sucked. Yes it has. Though...it seems like once it's locked into being Dr. No, it's almost always right. It's only when it's playing Dr. Yes that it ends up being wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Euro has lost all season since the upgrade. It's flat-out sucked. The new Euro skill scores are by far the best. Also, the UKMET ranks ahead of the GFS. Yesterday at 12z, the UKMET still had the LSV with almost .75 precip, with a low track close to the coast. The EPS on Thursday increased mean amounts & many members Had great low tracks. We were 3 days out & it looked so good for a late season moderate to heavy snow event. Outside of the blizzard, it's been a frustrating season for winter storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 That should put punctuation on our least snowy winter of all time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 The new Euro skill scores are by far the best. Also, the UKMET ranks ahead of the GFS. Yesterday at 12z, the UKMET still had the LSV with almost .75 precip, with a low track close to the coast. The EPS on Thursday increased mean amounts & many members Had great low tracks. We were 3 days out & it looked so good for a late season moderate to heavy snow event. Outside of the blizzard, it's been a frustrating season for winter storms. And some of us can't even lean on that. This winter was pretty much my personal worst ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 The Euro has backed off on the warmth for next week, especially north of 80. After showing 65-70+ a couple days ago, now it's not even reaching 60 for northern areas. It figures... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 The UKMET & Canadian at 12z are trying to Bring back the snow storm threat for the LSV. The Canadian had 5 inches at Harrisburg & The UKMET had around .5 inches of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 18z NAM doesn't appear to even bring precip into PA basically. It's Long Island and easy 2-3" max. Here is to an early winter in November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 If we get less than 1.5" of snow through the rest of the season, 2015-2016 will be the least snowiest winter on record in State College. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 If we get less than 1.5" of snow through the rest of the season, 2015-2016 will be the least snowiest winter on record in State College. What is current total? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 What is current total? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk 16.4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 I haven't gone out to measure yet, but eyeballing about a half inch of virga so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 It's actually pretty amazing you could add up our total for whole year and would count as an advisory snowfall. 5.1 imby, 5.7 at the airport. Also guys, no calling it a bad winter when the phrase "except for the historic blizzard" comes before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Sorry man. My Bad. I would be very upset too if I got no snow, While 90 miles to my south got their biggest snowstorm ever. It's just a shame that we didn't get 1 good storm that could have made most of us in here happy. There's always next year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Sorry man. My Bad. I would be very upset too if I got no snow, While 90 miles to my south got their biggest snowstorm ever. It's just a shame that we didn't get 1 good storm that could have made most of us in here happy. There's always next year... Tbh, I was pretty pumped you guys did, great group of posters and I felt the vibes living vicariously. I wish I could get more of you into severe!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Me no likey the talk about a cold pattern developing in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 Yeah...that would suck big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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