showmethesnow Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Gotcha. In general there appears to be a trend in the guidance for a more favorable(more southern) track for the upcoming event(s). I don't usually do much more than glance at snowfall means, but yeah there is a decrease from yesterdays 12z to this morning's 0z for event 1. If I am adjusting correctly for the rain we saw a 1 1/2 to 2 days ago, that shows up on some of the previous runs, there has been a noticeable wet/dry (liquid) cycle between the 12Z and the 00z for the last 5 runs. Granted it was done quickly in my head so I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 What is hurting us is the kicker & the breakdown of the ridge before the storm can dig. Would really suck to finally get a decent HP & 50/50 and have it be ruined by that.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 What is hurting us is the kicker & the breakdown of the ridge before the storm can dig. Would really suck to finally get a decent HP & 50/50 and have it be ruined by that.... You lost me. Are you talking the initial storm at day 4 that runs up to our west? If so that is most likely a lost cause. The one that we should probably be focused on is what trails behind around day 6. Of course nothing is set in stone but by all indications at this point that setup looks pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 You lost me. Are you talking the initial storm at day 4 that runs up to our west? If so that is most likely a lost cause. The one that we should probably be focused on is what trails behind around day 6. Of course nothing is set in stone but by all indications at this point that setup looks pretty good. No clue either. Random drive by weenie rants in a discussion thread are annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 You lost me. Are you talking the initial storm at day 4 that runs up to our west? If so that is most likely a lost cause. The one that we should probably be focused on is what trails behind around day 6. Of course nothing is set in stone but by all indications at this point that setup looks pretty good. he he probably worried about suppression due to a very flat flow. If the western ridge were better those day 6-10 threats would be more likely to bomb up the coast. Remember he is a ways north of most in this forum. I know some love the idea of this missing NYC but your also capping this as a low end event then. If we want a 10"+ type storm it probably has to hit NYC also. Personally I want the most snow solution and don't care what happens somewhere else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 he he probably worried about suppression due to a very flat flow. If the western ridge were better those day 6-10 threats would be more likely to bomb up the coast. Remember he is a ways north of most in this forum. I know some love the idea of this missing NYC but your also capping this as a low end event then. If we want a 10"+ type storm it probably has to hit NYC also. Personally I want the most snow solution and don't care what happens somewhere else. Maybe. For our area, if the Euro is to be believed, you have to think that potential heavy snow area will end up further north, or at least not have the very tight gradient.. though its possible I suppose given the modeled location and strength of the high pressure to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 he he probably worried about suppression due to a very flat flow. If the western ridge were better those day 6-10 threats would be more likely to bomb up the coast. Remember he is a ways north of most in this forum. I know some love the idea of this missing NYC but your also capping this as a low end event then. If we want a 10"+ type storm it probably has to hit NYC also. Personally I want the most snow solution and don't care what happens somewhere else. Okay, that makes more sense. Not sure I would worry so much yet for up there. With this setup he would probably be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Pretty sweet looking map. Lets hope this doesn't all go to hell in the next run or 2 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Pretty sweet looking map. Lets hope this doesn't all go to hell in the next run or 2 lol. ecmwf_mslpa_namer_8.png While this is looking like a decent setup with the day 6 event I really am starting to like the look for the day 9. Think that is the event that has the potential to be a MEC or better. Long ways off and a lot can change but at this point the EPS is showing a good -NAO with a 50/50 planted underneath it courtesy of our day 6 storm. And the ridging out west has the typical look that favors an east coast snow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Lol. Gotta give it to PSU. The guy figures out a new way to complain about being fringed with every storm we have. In all seriousness the precip shield would be larger than modeled as it always is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 While this is looking like a decent setup with the day 6 event I really am starting to like the look for the day 9. Think that is the event that has the potential to be a MEC or better. Long ways off and a lot can change but at this point the EPS is showing a good -NAO with a 50/50 planted underneath it courtesy of our day 6 storm. And the ridging out west has the typical look that favors an east coast snow storm. One at a time lol. I am really starting to like the look for next Thursday/Friday. A pretty significant Arctic air mass air will be just to our north with low pressure likely moving to our south. If the low can dig and strengthen closer to the coast, with the cold air source in place, this would get very interesting for our general area and possibly up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Lol. Gotta give it to PSU. The guy figures out a new way to complain about being fringed with every storm we have. In all seriousness the precip shield would be larger than modeled as it always is. Considering I live roughly 15 minutes north of him I appreciate it. I let him do all the worrying for the both of us and that lets me concentrate on the DC/Balt region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 One at a time lol. I am really starting to like the look for next Thursday/Friday. A pretty significant Arctic air mass air will be just to our north with low pressure likely moving to our south. If the low can dig and strengthen closer to the coast, with the cold air source in place, this would get very interesting for our general area and possibly up the coast. Yeah, getting ahead of myself. But in all honesty I have been focused solely on the first with only casual glances for afterwards so really don't have a feel for it at this time. But I tell you if the look starting to show on the 500's comes to pass this could be a great 1, 2 punch to end the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 It looks like the UKMET is also in the Euro / CMC camp. Overnight GGEM ensembles don't look great though. A lot of rain for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 No clue either. Random drive by weenie rants in a discussion thread are annoying. Really? "weenies"....A guy who has been around here for 15 years, studied meteorology in college, and has looked at wx models longer than you? OKAY....Let me explain to you what I was talking about earlier in more detail. Here is a map of the 6z GFS @ 120 hours 1) The ULL over SE Canada is our cold source.... 2) Note the shortwave over the plains, that is our potential snowstorm 3) Note the decent ridge out west. A stronger ridge would allow our storm to dig farther. NOW, Here is the GFS @ 153 hours. Note the position of the ridge? It gets destroyed from the energy crashing into the West Coast. What happens down stream? The storm has trouble digging and becomes a weak, flat, mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 The 00z EURO had the same issue. It was getting ready to create a beast of a storm @ 138 hrs, 12 hours later and the ridge gets torn apart and the storm is kicked East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Really? "weenies"....A guy who has been around here for 11 years, studied meteorology in college, and has looked at wx models longer than you? OKAY....Let me explain to you what I was talking about earlier in more detail. Here is a map of the 6z GFS @ 120 hours 1) The ULL over SE Canada is our cold source.... 2) Note the shortwave over the plains, that is our potential snowstorm 3) Note the decent ridge out west. A stronger ridge would allow our storm to dig farther. NOW, Here is the GFS @ 153 hours. Note the position of the ridge? It gets destroyed from the energy crashing into the West Coast. What happens down stream? The storm has trouble digging and becomes a weak, flat, mess. You made a weenie post dude. You are a good poster in general. I dont need your weather hobbyist resume lol. And I doubt you have been looking at models longer than me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 I think the threat is legit, I just don't like seeing the ridge get crushed like that since it would lead to a weaker storm, and with an already marginal cold source, we could use a deep low to our east in this situation. And, yes, I am talking about the day 6-7 event, any event before that has no shot for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 You lost me. Are you talking the initial storm at day 4 that runs up to our west? If so that is most likely a lost cause. The one that we should probably be focused on is what trails behind around day 6. Of course nothing is set in stone but by all indications at this point that setup looks pretty good. Talking about the day 6 threat. Look our west between 126-156 hours on GFS/EURO . Ridge is destroyed, and kicker issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Lol. Gotta give it to PSU. The guy figures out a new way to complain about being fringed with every storm we have. In all seriousness the precip shield would be larger than modeled as it always is.lol I'm not worried I was hypothesizing what highzenburg was on about. I won't worry about details like exact track or precip shield at 6 days away. But he was making a general pattern comment that was accurate that if we want a bigger storm the ridge breaking down out west is bad. The eps took a tick down in qpf because it's less amplified with both systems. Mostly 1000mb type lows vs a lot of 990 ones yesterday. It's still a good pattern overall. But he was totally right in what he said about the pattern if we want a big event the ridge breaking down isn't going to help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Who turned the tension meter in here up to 10???? Everyone needs to chill out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Talking about the day 6 threat. Look our west between 126-156 hours on GFS/EURO . Ridge is destroyed, and kicker issues. Considering how things looked on the guidance a few days ago, we are fine. You can always analyze(and over analyze) h5 features and do the what-if thing on a evolving potential threat. Its still 5 days out, and the amplitude and position of the ridge is not etched in stone, nor is the strength of the sw that would become our storm. Also yet to be resolved is how much cold filters down from the Arctic high to the north, and the timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Who turned the tension meter in here up to 10???? Everyone needs to chill out. Heh? Don't overreact dude. Its all good in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Considering how things looked on the guidance a few days ago, we are fine. You can always analyze(and over analyze) h5 features and do the what-if thing on a evolving potential threat. Its still 5 days out, and the amplitude and position of the ridge is not etched in stone, nor is the strength of the sw that would become our storm. Also yet to be resolved is how much cold filters down from the Arctic high to the north, and the timing. Of course, I understand that, however, it wasn't good to see the breakdown of the ridge on a lot of the models last night. That is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Of course, I understand that, however, it wasn't good to see the breakdown of the ridge on a lot of the models last night. That is all. Well, if that "trend" continues, then maybe the storm is weaker/flatter. It would also likely not be as cold. So in that scenario there would probably be at best a few inches of wet snow somewhere, and if it didn't fall at night maybe not even that. Anyway, best not to worry about details for this. I mean, most of us were all out a day or so ago. I still have no real investment in this. Just rolling with it. Only reason I am on here posting is because I am waiting for it to warm up a bit outside so I can do my pre-Spring/Spring yard work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 I hadn't looked closely at the 06z GFS before. It now more clearly has the Thursday / Friday storm, but the low tracks way down near the Gulf of Mexico, south of other guidance. We get some light snow as a result. The para GFS, which has been verifying better than the GFS, tracks the low over West Virginia and gives us more precip, but more of it falls as rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 I thought the overnight runs looked fine. We can freak out over ridge amplitude and precip and things like that inside of 120 hours. Right now we remain on the north side of a vort pass with cold air in place. March is a good month for dynamic storms as well even if not a coastal monster. That's my take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 I thought the overnight runs looked fine. We can freak out over ridge amplitude and precip and things like that inside of 120 hours. Right now we remain on the north side of a vort pass with cold air in place. March is a good month for dynamic storms as well even if not a coastal monster. That's my take. Agree. Exactly my take as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 He is just whinging without a clue. 0z Euro op had a big snowstorm for central/eastern VA into the lower Delmarva (6-10"), with 1-2" around DC and less north. See my post above on the EPS. Amped is a pretty terrible model reader. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Personally, I'm just happy to have something to chew on for this week. Seems like a pretty interesting setup. That's just it. We're in the game in under 8 days and it's March. If this was prime winter climo it might be worry worthy. March is a bonus month unless you let the last 2 years persuade you otherwise. I just need a couple inches to crack 36". One decent event from 40". I want a big event as much as anybody but will be completely happy to have something measurable in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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