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March 2016 Forecasts, Disco


snowman19

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Euro crushes the interior with next weekends storm

Nw nj and Pa

That's where you want to be if you want a chance for snow, interior and elevated, which is climo for the end of March. It's showing a big snow event from northwestern Sussex county on north and west into PA
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That's where you want to be if you want a chance for snow, interior and elevated, which is climo for the end of March. It's showing a big snow event from northwestern Sussex county on north and west into PA

Yes but we have seen snow near the coast before in March . Climo suggests inland but it has happened near the coast if we get a perfect bombing low.

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That's where you want to be if you want a chance for snow, interior and elevated, which is climo for the end of March. It's showing a big snow event from northwestern Sussex county on north and west into PA

If you remember even NYC and the coast had a snowstorm on March 21 last year. Obviously everything has to come together perfectly for the coast to get a snowstorm in late march, but it CAN happen. 

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That's where you want to be if you want a chance for snow, interior and elevated, which is climo for the end of March. It's showing a big snow event from northwestern Sussex county on north and west into PA

Yeah for the metro you want this to bomb and close off se of our area. The faster it can do that the faster it can drag the Cold closer to the coast

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We finally got the first neutral/negative NAO since the January blizzard. Root that 50/50

on so the storm gets forced to our SE instead of hugging the coast.

 

Not sure about the Euro yet since this is the first major forecast event since the upgrade.

 

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We finally got the first neutral/negative NAO since the January blizzard. Root that 50/50

on so the storm gets forced to our SE instead of hugging the coast.

 

Not sure about the Euro yet since this is the first major forecast event since the upgrade.

 

attachicon.gifnao.sprd2.gif

Some of us would prefer a coastal hugger.

 

CaocprdUsAAPOYF.jpg

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Euro has 18"+ for MMU , not necessarily Sussex northwest. If you are 20-25 miles give or take from the coast, the greater the chances of snow imo. Also take into effect the kind of track the storm will/would take.

It's elevation based. MMU is close to where the higher elevations of NW NJ begin.

 

Where I live in the valley it's probably an inch or two of slop and up in West Milford twenty miles away a blizzard.

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It's elevation based. MMU is close to where the higher elevations of NW NJ begin.

 

Where I live in the valley it's probably an inch or two of slop and up in West Milford twenty miles away a blizzard.

Yes, I understand that, my point was that this isn't mainly for the 1000'-2000' ft club (altough who knows) and can easily become a major snowstorm even for parts of central Morris. Hope the NW guys get crushed this time around.
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Yes, I understand that, my point was that this isn't mainly for the 1000'-2000' ft club (altough who knows) and can easily become a major snowstorm even for parts of central Morris. Hope the NW guys get crushed this time around.

I could see the whole area getting crushed if this closes off in the right spot but that's a big if, the flow is fairly progressive overall.

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Some of us would prefer a coastal hugger.

 

The funny part of this season is that none of these heavy snow events that were modeled for the interior panned out.

Storms either came NW and had rain for areas just NW of NYC and along the coast or the coast got the heaviest snow.

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The funny part of this season is that none of these heavy snow events that were modeled for the interior panned out.

Storms either came NW and had rain for areas just NW of NYC and along the coast or the coast got the heaviest snow.

Thanks for the friendly reminder and the kick in the *****

 

I suspect that this will end up mostly rain for 99% of the area. 

 

12z EPS mean tracks from just off the NJ coast to over E LI and up into SNE. It's not a terrible look, especially if you're rooting for rain.

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Thanks for the friendly reminder and the kick in the *****

I suspect that this will end up mostly rain for 99% of the area.

12z EPS mean tracks from just off the NJ coast to over E LI and up into SNE. It's not a terrible look, especially if you're rooting for rain.

Further east than 0z and similiar to op. Good news if you want snow.
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Thanks for the friendly reminder and the kick in the *****

I suspect that this will end up mostly rain for 99% of the area.

12z EPS mean tracks from just off the NJ coast to over E LI and up into SNE. It's not a terrible look, especially if you're rooting for rain.

Not if the graphs are right with the negative A0 EPO and NAO.

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That's where you want to be if you want a chance for snow, interior and elevated, which is climo for the end of March. It's showing a big snow event from northwestern Sussex county on north and west into PA

So explain why portions of the coastal  metro received over a foot of snow during the March 19 -21, 1958 storm with borderline temps - check out the link below a good portion of the event temps were above freezing - the climo argument doesn't work all the time................

 

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KEWR/1958/3/20/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA&reqdb.zip=&reqdb.magic=&reqdb.wmo=

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What would you consider in between then? The higher elevations of NNJ and Rockland/Orange Counties would do great with the Euro verbatim.

In between meaning there is no way an area like MMU or EWR will see 6"+ and NYC 0". That's extremely rare, especially in the new snow climate we've been in for over 16 years now.

It's either this will be a high elevation storm or we will all cash in, except maybe ocean areas and eastern LI.

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In between meaning there is no way an area like MMU or EWR will see 6"+ and NYC 0". That's extremely rare, especially in the new snow climate we've been in for over 16 years now.

It's either this will be a high elevation storm or we will all cash in, except maybe ocean areas and eastern LI.

When has MMU ever gotten 6" while NYC got 0"? Maybe once in 25 years. I don't see the point in your prediction, unless it was purely an attempt to troll inland folks.
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When has MMU ever gotten 6" while NYC got 0"? Maybe once in 25 years. I don't see the point in your prediction, unless it was purely an attempt to troll inland folks.

That happens more than you think, in the March 92 event MMU saw 11-13 inches and most of the metro had 3-5 and mainly just on grass

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That happens more than you think, in the March 92 event MMU saw 11-13 inches and most of the metro had 3-5 and mainly just on grass

The Yankees home opener is another back in 99 or 2000? I had 5-6 inches and the city had nothing because of it being a concrete jungle

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That happens more than you think, in the March 92 event MMU saw 11-13 inches and most of the metro had 3-5 and mainly just on grass

3"-5" is a lot different then 0" and 1992 was a long time ago and before this crazy snow period we've been in for over 16yrs now.

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