Pittsburgh, PA: Late Winter --> Spring '16...

[north pgh]

Just a few downpours and some distant thunder. .16 of rain.

Maybe we will get some good storms when the cold front comes through after midnight.

[meatwad]

Snow Possible this weekend, Mainly north of I-80

 

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 132316
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
716 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will return showers to the forecast early on Saturday
with much cooler and unsettled weather expected for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
No updates are needed at this time to the ongoing forecast.
Previous discussion follows...

Building high pressure is expected to maintain dry weather this
evening as diurnal cu/stratocu dissipates. A cold front is
expected to approach late tonight with increasing shower chances.
Lows should average a few degrees above seasonal levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Maintained categorical pops with the passage of a cold front
early Saturday morning, with sufficient deep layer moisture and
ascent.

A persistent upper trough is then progged to set up across the
northeastern CONUS through the rest of the weekend, with a series
of shortwaves advancing through the trough. This, combined with
cold advection, should result in periodic scattered showers. For
areas north of I 80 and in the ridges, critical thicknesses and
model soundings indicate a few snow showers are also possible
Saturday night into Sunday as 850mb temperatures drop to -5 to -6
celsius. The upper trough is progged to shift east Sunday night
and Monday with dry weather expected.

Well below average temperatures are expected over the weekend,
with some recovery by Monday. While some patchy frost is possible
Sunday night, the most certainty exists in a freeze for the
ridges Saturday night and Sunday night where an HWO mention was
maintained.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
We will be situated in zonal flow on the bottom edge of an upper
trough thats departing to the east for the start of the long term
period. There is a bit of uncertainty in how the models resolve
the shortwaves within this upper pattern and the extent to which
the Upper Valley will see precipitation until a shortwave digging
through the broad trough drops southward over the great lakes. For
now, stayed close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF which favors the
highest pops to over the southern half of the area. Temperatures
will stay below seasonal averages and gradually moderate to near
and above normal as temperatures warm aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected for nearly all of the overnight
period.A cold front is expected to reach the area around sunrise,
bringing showers and MVFR ceilings. Model guidance continues to
indicate that FKL/DUJ could potentially drop to IFR conditions,
but similar to 18Z TAF issuance, still do not have enough
confidence to put IFR in the forecast. Showers will become more
scattered in coverage during the afternoon. May be somewhat
optimistic bringing ceilings back to VFR heights by mid
afternoon. Winds will shift from the south to the west behind the
front, with wind gusts up to 20-25 knots.

.OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Restrictions will remain possible through the weekend, with cold
northwest flow providing instability for showers and cumulus.
Surface ridge builds overhead Monday bringing a return of VFR
before additional restrictions return again Tuesday with low
pressure.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$

[north pgh]

It is a good thing that we are not in tornado alley because the NWS Pittsburgh radar has been down for 2 days now.....again. It seems to go down every other month for periods of time. Do they have these problems in any other cities this often?

[olafminesaw]

It is a good thing that we are not in tornado alley because the NWS Pittsburgh radar has been down for 2 days now.....again. It seems to go down every other month for periods of time. Do they have these problems in any other cities this often?

Very rarely do the DC or Wakefield VA radars go down and usually for short periods of time. I don't understand it.

[meatwad]

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 141545
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1145 AM EDT SAT MAY 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain showers will be ending and it will be breezy, much cooler
today with unsettled weather throughout weekend. On Sunday cold
air aloft will cause rain showers that may have some brief
periods of snow pellets or ice pellets during the day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Morning updates made to slightly speed up the time of categorical
pops as the latest regional radar and surface obs show the
heaviest rain from dubois through eastern allegheny and into north
central West Virginia. The latest hrrr does suggest that a second
line of showers will develop immediately behind this first line as
the cold front lags behind, continuing high pops until later this
afternoon. All other adjustments made through this afternoon were
based on the latest observation and hi res model trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Unseasonably cool weather continues into Sunday as the core of cold
air aloft passes directly overhead. 850mb temperatures bottoming out
in the -3 to -5 celsius range will fuel very steep low-level lapse
rates as the passing upper-level trough axis provides the impetus
for shower development Sunday afternoon. With freezing levels so
low, and a relatively dry boundary layer, graupel production seems
probable in stronger showers. Will carry a breif ice pellets mention
through the afternoon.

The upper low will shift east Sunday night and surface high pressure
will begin to fill in from the southwest. This will bring a clearing
trend to the sky cover overnight and may decouple the boundary layer
over the lowland counties. If these factors line up, temperatures
could crater and frost/freeze headlines could be necessary. In the
higher elevations, weak warm air advection begins Monday morning,
but despite this, temperatures may approach the freezing mark. Held
off on any headlines as confidence still isn`t high in the lowland
counties and due to potential freeze headlines in the high terrain
Saturday night. Will continue to carry a mention in the Hazardous
Weather Outlook.

Surface high pressure remains in place Monday, ensuring a dry
forecast to start the new work week. Increased mid-level warm air
advection and sunshine will help moderate temperatures Monday, but
highs will remain below average.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Amplified upper-level flow pattern flattens early next week. The
surface high will move off to the east by late Monday, allowing
moisture to increase to our west. A shortwave trough trying to dig
in across the Great Lakes will be washed out by the zonal regime,
but should provide enough forcing to generate showers Tuesday.
Focused likely PoPs across the south where models depict deeper
moisture. Model trends have favored a drier solution thereafter, as
high pressure regains control of the area. This transition would
also favor a moderation of temperatures back to near-normal by late
in the week.
tax

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Rain showers exiting the area as cold front in moving through.
Once the wind starts to shift with the front, most locations
should go at least MVFR if not locally IFR in stratus behind the
front. Wind gusts will increase by afternoon as cold advection
really starts, with many sites experiencing gusts of 20-25 kts.
Fries

.OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Restrictions will remain possible through the weekend, with cold
northwest flow providing instability for showers, graupel, and
local thunder. Surface ridge builds overhead Monday bringing a
return of VFR before additional restrictions return again Tuesday
with low pressure.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The KPBZ WSR-88D remains down. Repairs will be attempted later
today.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$

[CoraopolisWx]

Any sun we get tomorrow, could make things more interesting.

Strong storms with a few snowflakes mixed in, are possible with the cold 850's.

[KPITSnow]

I'm getting graupel right now

[Digger]

I'm getting graupel right now

 

And now, me too. I just decided to suspend mowing the lawn until it passes....

[meatwad]

Freeze Warning

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA

218 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2016

OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007-013-014-020>023-029-031-

073-075-WVZ001>004-012-021-509-511-513-160230-

/O.UPG.KPBZ.FZ.A.0001.160516T0600Z-160516T1400Z/

/O.NEW.KPBZ.FZ.W.0002.160516T0400Z-160516T1400Z/

TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-JEFFERSON-

MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-MERCER-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-

BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-

FAYETTE-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-MONONGALIA-

PRESTON-WESTERN TUCKER-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW PHILADELPHIA...DOVER...CARROLLTON...

MALVERN...EAST LIVERPOOL...SALEM...COLUMBIANA...COSHOCTON...

CADIZ...STEUBENVILLE...ZANESVILLE...CAMBRIDGE...MARTINS FERRY...

ST. CLAIRSVILLE...CALDWELL...WOODSFIELD...SHARON...HERMITAGE...

GROVE CITY...NEW CASTLE...ELLWOOD CITY...BUTLER...ALIQUIPPA...

BEAVER FALLS...AMBRIDGE...MONACA...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...

KITTANNING...FORD CITY...INDIANA...WASHINGTON...CANONSBURG...

WAYNESBURG...MURRYSVILLE...GREENSBURG...NEW KENSINGTON...

UNIONTOWN...WEIRTON...FOLLANSBEE...WELLSBURG...WHEELING...

MOUNDSVILLE...NEW MARTINSVILLE...FAIRMONT...MORGANTOWN...

KINGWOOD...BRUCETON MILLS...PARSONS...HENDRICKS...SAINT GEORGE

218 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2016

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT

MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A FREEZE

WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT

MONDAY. THE FREEZE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOW TEMPERATURES...WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S IN THE HIGHEST

RIDGES...AND FROM 29 TO 32 ELSEWHERE.

* TIMING...AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...UNPROTECTED OUTDOOR PLANTS WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGED OR

KILLED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR

HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER

SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

[olafminesaw]

10 mintues or so of small hail  and thunder here. Surprising considering relatively low CAPE, low shear.

[blackngoldrules]

I guess you can say this is somewhat weather related, but I was wondering if any of you guys have seen any cicadas yet? They're supposed to emerge when the ground temperature is 64 degrees. We've had an unusually cool May, but now we have a big warm up this week. I've read that the South Hills are supposed to get them this year along with the counties to our south and west. I haven't seen anything in Bethel Park yet. Anyway, just thought I'd change things up a bit and ask about that. I'm fascinated by nature. 

[jwilson]

I guess you can say this is somewhat weather related, but I was wondering if any of you guys have seen any cicadas yet? They're supposed to emerge when the ground temperature is 64 degrees. We've had an unusually cool May, but now we have a big warm up this week. I've read that the South Hills are supposed to get them this year along with the counties to our south and west. I haven't seen anything in Bethel Park yet. Anyway, just thought I'd change things up a bit and ask about that. I'm fascinated by nature. 

 

I've seen them down here, in fact there was a small swarm of them in a tree in my yard.  I remember looking for the molted shells of them as a kid, and of course that rattling sound is quite familiar.

[heathaze]

I guess you can say this is somewhat weather related, but I was wondering if any of you guys have seen any cicadas yet? They're supposed to emerge when the ground temperature is 64 degrees. We've had an unusually cool May, but now we have a big warm up this week. I've read that the South Hills are supposed to get them this year along with the counties to our south and west. I haven't seen anything in Bethel Park yet. Anyway, just thought I'd change things up a bit and ask about that. I'm fascinated by nature. 

I saw a few (dead) on the bike trail in/around Cedar Creek Park (Westmoreland County) on Tuesday evening. Nothing swarming or pelting any bike riders. (I recall this happening last time they were around! ick)

[meatwad]

Flash Flood Warning

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA

155 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

PAC003-125-292030-

/O.CON.KPBZ.FF.W.0004.000000T0000Z-160529T2030Z/

/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

WASHINGTON PA-ALLEGHENY PA-

155 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EDT FOR

EAST CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALLEGHENY COUNTIES...

AT 153 PM EDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED FLOODED ROADWAYS WHILE

AREA OBSERVATIONS INDICATED OVER TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAD HAD

FALLEN WITHIN WARNED AREA. FLASH FLOODING IS ALREADY OCCURING.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...

GASTONVILLE...WEST MIFFLIN...BALDWIN...WHITEHALL...

SOUTH PARK TOWNSHIP...JEFFERSON HILLS...PLEASANT HILLS...GLASSPORT...

DRAVOSBURG AND FINLEYVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL

CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND

UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.

IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNED AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.

RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE

PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

&&

LAT...LON 4037 7995 4037 7987 4018 7999 4019 8008

4039 7995

$$

[RitualOfTheTrout]

I guess you can say this is somewhat weather related, but I was wondering if any of you guys have seen any cicadas yet? They're supposed to emerge when the ground temperature is 64 degrees. We've had an unusually cool May, but now we have a big warm up this week. I've read that the South Hills are supposed to get them this year along with the counties to our south and west. I haven't seen anything in Bethel Park yet. Anyway, just thought I'd change things up a bit and ask about that. I'm fascinated by nature. 

I haven't seen or heard any yet. Nothing like a hot July / August day with the sound they make going in the background.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

I've seen them down here, in fact there was a small swarm of them in a tree in my yard.  I remember looking for the molted shells of them as a kid, and of course that rattling sound is quite familiar.

I remember catching one as a kid and thinking wow I caught a huge fly lol.

 

And people think my weather tracking hobby is weird, how about cicada mania: http://www.cicadamania.com/cicadas/brood-v-17-year-cicadas-due-in-spring-of-2016/

[Mailman]

 

 

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TODAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A RISK FOR
SOME SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE CONUS AND
ADJACENT CANADA/MEXICO THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY/SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES...WHILE A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER TX
GENERALLY SHIFTS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. IN THE WEST...AN UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OFF THE CA COAST IS EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHERN/CENTRAL CA
TONIGHT WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE OTHERWISE PERSISTS OVER THE GREAT BASIN
AND ROCKIES.

...OH/TN VALLEYS TO MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE PREVALENT WITHIN A RELATIVELY BROAD
WARM/MOIST SECTOR ACROSS THE REGION...WITH EARLY-MORNING
SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY IMPLYING THAT THE STRONGEST
INSOLATION/DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR IN AREAS SOUTH OF THE OH RIVER
LATER TODAY. WEAKENING INHIBITION WITH 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY/MID-AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY FROM PARTS OF
TN/EASTERN KY INTO WV/VA AND FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OH AND PA. AS
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURS LATER
TODAY...SOUTHWESTERLY LOW/MID-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND ADJACENT PARTS OF THE TN
VALLEY/APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH 40+ KT
MID-LEVEL WINDS CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES
FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUSTAINED MULTICELLS AND POTENTIALLY
SOME SUPERCELLS. ASIDE FROM AN INCREASING COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON...A SOMEWHAT
SEPARATE CORRIDOR OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WV/VA MOUNTAINS AND INTENSIFY/MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD PRIMARILY
ACROSS PARTS OF VA/MD. DAMAGING WINDS/SOME SEVERE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE REGIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

 

[north pgh]

 

 

...SUMMARY...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE

VALLEYS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TODAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A RISK FOR

SOME SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

...SYNOPSIS...

AN AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE CONUS AND

ADJACENT CANADA/MEXICO THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL

CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY/SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE UPPER

MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES...WHILE A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER TX

GENERALLY SHIFTS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. IN THE WEST...AN UPPER LOW

CURRENTLY OFF THE CA COAST IS EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHERN/CENTRAL CA

TONIGHT WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE OTHERWISE PERSISTS OVER THE GREAT BASIN

AND ROCKIES.

...OH/TN VALLEYS TO MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE PREVALENT WITHIN A RELATIVELY BROAD

WARM/MOIST SECTOR ACROSS THE REGION...WITH EARLY-MORNING

SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY IMPLYING THAT THE STRONGEST

INSOLATION/DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR IN AREAS SOUTH OF THE OH RIVER

LATER TODAY. WEAKENING INHIBITION WITH 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE IS

EXPECTED BY EARLY/MID-AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY FROM PARTS OF

TN/EASTERN KY INTO WV/VA AND FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OH AND PA. AS

INCREASING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURS LATER

TODAY...SOUTHWESTERLY LOW/MID-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO

STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND ADJACENT PARTS OF THE TN

VALLEY/APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH 40+ KT

MID-LEVEL WINDS CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES

FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUSTAINED MULTICELLS AND POTENTIALLY

SOME SUPERCELLS. ASIDE FROM AN INCREASING COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THE

THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON...A SOMEWHAT

SEPARATE CORRIDOR OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE

WV/VA MOUNTAINS AND INTENSIFY/MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD PRIMARILY

ACROSS PARTS OF VA/MD. DAMAGING WINDS/SOME SEVERE HAIL WILL BE

POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE REGIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

 

It felt like winter today. Another Bust. Haven't had a good thunderstorm yet this year. And then the Pens lose. 

[meatwad]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0823

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0333 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OH...WRN PA AND EXTREME SWRN NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 235...

VALID 052033Z - 052200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 235

CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL THROUGH 22Z FROM ERN OH INTO WRN PA. A

LIMITED SEVERE THREAT MAY EXPAND A BIT FARTHER EAST BEYOND WW 235

INTO SWRN NY AND NWRN PA...BUT OVERALL THREAT DOWNSTREAM IS NOT

EXPECTED TO BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR AN ADDITIONAL WW. HOWEVER...WW CAN

BE LOCALLY EXTENDED AS NEEDED FARTHER EAST INTO PITTSBURGH CWA.

DISCUSSION...A BROKEN BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES FROM

EXTREME NW PA THROUGH ERN OH MOVING EAST AT AROUND 35 KT. STRONGEST

STORMS REMAIN OVER NWRN PA AND NERN OH WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE

IS MAXIMIZED ALONG A LAKE-ENHANCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE STORMS ARE

EMBEDDED WITHIN 40-45 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR AND SOME MID-LEVEL ROTATION

HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH SOME OF THE CELLS. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO

POSE A THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL NEXT

FEW HOURS FROM ERN OH INTO EXTREME WRN NY AND WRN PA. THOUGH A

LIMITED SEVERE THREAT MAY EXTEND BEYOND WW 235...STORMS ARE EXPECTED

TO WEAKEN WITH EWD EXTENT INTO WRN PA THROUGH WRN NY WHERE AN

EXPANSIVE CLOUD SHIELD HAS RESULTED IN WEAKER INSTABILITY.

..DIAL.. 06/05/2016

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON 41328024 41817957 42287918 41497864 40677967 40118123

40668111 41058084 41328024

[olafminesaw]

MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE ON SAT/D6 WITH JET MAX NOSING INTO PA AND
NY SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A BROAD SURFACE LOW IS
FORECAST TO DEEPEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER SRN ONTARIO TOWARD LAKE
ERIE/ONTARIO...THEN CONTINUING EWD ACROSS NY/PA/NJ INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS A BIT FARTHER N THAN THE GFS WHICH
HAS THE LOW FARTHER S ACROSS PA INTO THE DELMARVA. REGARDLESS...THIS
GENERAL AREA...AS CURRENTLY DEPICTED BY SEVERAL MODELS...WILL FAVOR
BOTH SUPERCELLS AND/OR SEVERE BOWS. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WILL BE
POSSIBLE INCLUDING HAIL...WIND...AND TORNADOES WITH THE LATTER
DEPENDENT ON STORM MODE AND THE AVAILABILITY OF SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS ALONG A RAPIDLY ADVANCING WARM FRONT DO
SUGGEST SUPERCELL AND TORNADO POTENTIAL CENTERED FROM ERN OH INTO
CNTRL PA. EVEN IF SUPERCELLS DO NOT MATERIALIZE...THE VERY STRONG
NWLY FLOW REGIME WILL FAVOR FAST MOVING BOWS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WIND. 

[meatwad]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0829   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   1041 AM CDT MON JUN 06 2016   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY   REGION   CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE    VALID 061541Z - 061645Z   SUMMARY...A CATEGORICAL UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK IS BEING PLANNED FOR   THE 1630Z DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER GREAT   LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. CLUSTERS OF FAST-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS   WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS   AFTERNOON.   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND SHORT-RANGE MODEL   GUIDANCE OFFER INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT FAST-MOVING CONVECTIVE   CLUSTERS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DMGG WIND GUSTS ACROSS   PORTIONS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION THIS   AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VIGOROUS   UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WNW...AHEAD OF   WHICH A DESTABILIZING AIR MASS WILL EXIST AMIDST STRONG DEEP-LAYER   FLOW. ADDITIONAL METEOROLOGICAL REASONING FOR THE UPGRADE WILL BE   PROVIDED IN THE FORTHCOMING DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.   ..COHEN/WEISS/BUNTING.. 06/06/2016   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...   LAT...LON   41568262 41727994 41287933 40657937 39788087 39258290               39588525 40288613 41278623 42508565 42808418 42588284               41568262 

[meatwad]

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0833   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0211 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2016   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF OHIO...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN INDIANA...WRN   PA...WRN WV PANHANDLE   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE    VALID 061911Z - 062145Z   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT   SUMMARY...PORTIONS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY   REGION ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH   ISSUANCE.   DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF   THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. VISIBLE SATELLITE   LOOPS INDICATE RELATIVELY SHALLOW CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WITHIN A   POCKET OF DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR FROM NRN INDIANA EXTENDING   INTO NWRN OHIO. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEPER MIXING ALIGNS WITH A   WEAK SFC TROUGH/WIND-SHIFT AXIS THAT HAS SOME SEMBLANCE TO A   DRYLINE...WITH SFC WARMING/DRYING TO ITS W. THIS BOUNDARY ARCS SWWD   INTO W-CNTRL INDIANA...AND AGITATED CU DEVELOPMENT IS BECOMING   CONCENTRATED IN ITS PROXIMITY. FARTHER E...A MORE WIDESPREAD CU   FIELD IS EVIDENT FROM CENTRAL OHIO EWD TO THE UPPER OHIO   VALLEY...WITH A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM E OF THE COLUMBUS METRO   TOWARD PITTSBURGH.   THE 18Z SPECIAL RAOB FROM WILMINGTON OHIO SAMPLES THE SLIGHTLY   MOISTER AIR E OF THE DRYLINE-LIKE BOUNDARY...WHILE ALSO INDICATING   STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES -- E.G. 9 C/KM IN THE LOWEST 3 KM AGL.   COMPARISON OF THIS RAOB TO THE 12Z ILN RAOB SUGGESTS ASCENT HAVING   TAKEN PLACE THROUGH AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER ABOVE 650 MB...WITH   COOLING NOTED AT THE BASE OF THIS WARM LAYER. VIS IMAGERY CONFIRMS   THE OVERALL MANIFESTATION OF THIS WARM LAYER VIA FLAT/LATERALLY   EXPANDING CU CELLS. HOWEVER...SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS TO THE MOST   RECENT WILMINGTON RAOB TO ACCOUNT FOR ADDITIONAL DIABATIC SFC-LAYER   HEATING SUGGEST THAT SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MLCAPE LAYERS WILL ARISE BY   AROUND 20Z/21Z FOR CONVECTIVE DEEPENING TO TAKE PLACE SUFFICIENTLY   FOR AN INCREASING SVR RISK. THE APPROACH OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL VORT   MAX AND SPEED MAX FROM THE WNW WILL FURTHER SUPPORT CONVECTIVE   DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION...INITIALLY EVOLVING FROM THE   AFOREMENTIONED INCIPIENT-CONVECTION REGIMES.   UPSTREAM VWPS AT IWX AND LOT SUGGEST THAT DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL/WLY   FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION...WITH 30-45 KT OF FLOW   THROUGH THE LOWER/MIDDLE PORTION OF THE CONVECTIVE-CLOUD LAYER --   SUPPORTING AMPLE CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM TRANSPORT. DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL   BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL SUB-CLOUD EVAPORATIONAL   COOLING IN THE RELATIVELY DRY ENVIRONMENT. STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS WILL   ALSO SUPPORT SPLITTING TSTMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SVR HAIL GIVEN   COOLING THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT...ALTHOUGH TSTMS SHOULD TEND TO   CONGEAL INTO SMALL...FAST-MOVING CLUSTERS WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS.   UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WW ISSUANCE STEMS FROM UNCERTAINTY IN THE   TIMING OF MORE ROBUST INCREASE IN SVR POTENTIAL. THIS IS ESPECIALLY   THE CASE GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF ONLY MODEST BUOYANCY -- I.E. MLCAPE   AROUND 250-750 J/KG -- AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE.   HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FAVORABLE KINEMATIC PROFILES FOR DMGG WIND   GUSTS...AND GIVEN THE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATE   ENVIRONMENT...CONVECTIVE AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO   BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE.   ..COHEN/WEISS.. 06/06/2016   ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...   LAT...LON   40708579 41248337 41538043 41317877 40317905 39438118               39258337 39318604 39968648 40708579 

[meatwad]

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA

241 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2016

PAZ021>023-073-071915-

INDIANA-WESTMORELAND-ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-

241 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA...SOUTH

CENTRAL ARMSTRONG...EASTERN ALLEGHENY AND NORTHWESTERN WESTMORELAND

COUNTIES...

AT 241 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PLUM...OR NEAR

APOLLO...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS

STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

MONROEVILLE...VANDERGRIFT...APOLLO...PLUM...MURRYSVILLE...

NEW KENSINGTON...LOWER BURRELL...HARRISON TOWNSHIP...ARNOLD...

TARENTUM...BLAIRSVILLE...BRACKENRIDGE...DELMONT...NORTH APOLLO...

AVONMORE...ORCHARD HILLS...EXPORT...SALTSBURG...

OKLAHOMA AND WEST LEBANON.

LAT...LON 4037 7924 4034 7927 4044 7978 4062 7975

4060 7920

TIME...MOT...LOC 1841Z 278DEG 29KT 4052 7967

$$

[Mailman]

We'll see how this pans out for Saturday.  

 

 

...DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY
FROM OHIO AND POSSIBLY SERN LOWER MI ACROSS PA AND PERHAPS EXTENDING
EWD INTO SURROUNDING STATES. ECMWF SHOWS STORMS FROM LAKE ERIE INTO
CENTRAL AND ERN PA DURING THE DAY...CONTINUING ACROSS NJ SAT
EVENING...WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER W FROM WRN PA INTO OH. GIVEN
AMPLE NW FLOW ALOFT...AND THE ADVECTION OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
FROM THE W...A CORRIDOR OF SEVERE APPEARS LIKELY ALTHOUGH PRECISE
PLACEMENT OF THE GREATEST RISK WILL BECOME MORE APPARENT IN LATER
OUTLOOKS. VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT SUGGEST BOTH SUPERCELLS AND BOWS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

[Rd9108]

Shocker the NWS thinks most of the severe stuff is gonna be north of Pittsburgh.

[north pgh]

Shocker the NWS thinks most of the severe stuff is gonna be north of Pittsburgh.

Very disappointed in this summer weather so far. Not very much thunderstorm activity or humid weather. 

Pretty soon will be getting ready for winter disappointment. 

[Rd9108]

Very disappointed in this summer weather so far. Not very much thunderstorm activity or humid weather.

Pretty soon will be getting ready for winter disappointment.

I have not posted once since winter and something has changed eventually. We can't get screwed out everytime.

[olafminesaw]

[Rd9108]

Just substitute the yellow for 8+ inches of snow and it's a familiar sight.

[Mailman]

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0875
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0132 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PA...NJ...SE NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 111832Z - 111930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM ERN OH ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL PA INTO NRN
NJ AND SE NY. WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS
STORMS INITIATE AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INCREASES WITH THE MOST
LIKELY LOCATION OF THE WATCH ACROSS ERN OH INTO SRN PA.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SEWD
ACROSS CNTRL NY INTO NRN NJ WITH A MOIST AIRMASS TO THE WEST OF THE
SFC TROUGH. SFC WINDS ARE WESTERLY ACROSS MUCH OF PA INTO ERN OH
WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. AS SFC TEMPS CONTINUE
TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S F...A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. ON THE NRN EDGE OF
INSTABILITY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FIELD OF CUMULUS
PRESENT NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF STATE COLLEGE EXTENDING INTO NE OH
WITH RADAR SHOWING SEVERAL NEW ECHOES OVER CNTRL PA AND NRN OH. THE
LATEST ESRL HRRR TAKES THIS CONVECTION AND DEVELOPS SEVERAL
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH THIS ACTIVITY MOVING
SEWD ACROSS ERN OH AND SRN PA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER STORMS
MAY DEVELOP IN SE NY ALONG THE AXIS OF STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE
LATEST WSR-88D VWPS ALONG THE MCD CORRIDOR INCLUDING THE PITTSBURGH
18Z SOUNDING SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW WITH
SUBSTANTIAL SPEED SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 3 KM. THIS ALONG WITH
STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT A WIND DAMAGE THREAT
WITH THE BETTER ORGANIZED MULTICELLS. HAIL COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH THE
STRONGER UPDRAFTS.

..BROYLES/WEISS.. 06/11/2016