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Stovepipe

Potential Big Dog Snow Event February 15th

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The 17z HRRR is trying:

 

 

 

Looks like west Knoxville--and points north and west up the Plateau--stand the best chance of seeing backside snow.  Further east, I'm not feeling hopeful.  But who knows.  It's not like we haven't had our share of surprises lately, including the daily high temps not getting anywhere near the forecast. 

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Some power outages reported in Halls.

Power literally went off while I was sitting at the red light of Emory and I-75 on the east side headed towards Halls. Power was out all the way to Bricky Elem.

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The Euro is rolling out super slowly but It shows an inch or two along the Tennessee/Kentucky border so far on the back side. Doesn't go up this side of the Apps though, goes up Western NC.

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I think there is some major downsloping today.  I noticed brighter skies off to my south this morning--even a patch of blue toward the foothills.  Also, the precip field over East TN has a major hole in it at the moment. 

 

In the meantime...only 32.9 here with drizzle.

 

Will take every bit of downsloping I can get if it limits rain.  We have 5" of snow on the ground probably equivalent to .6 qpf.  If that were to melt w/ a significant band of rain in say a three hour period, flooding would be an issue.  I think of one extreme case when Roan Mtn lost 1' of snow in about one hour and the damage along the Doe River was immense.  I don't think NE TN gets to that point, but in the mountains there is a decent amount of snow right now.

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Will take every bit of downsloping I can get if it limits rain.  We have 5" of snow on the ground probably equivalent to .6 qpf.  If that were to melt w/ a significant band of rain in say a three hour period, flooding would be an issue.  I think of one extreme case when Roan Mtn lost 1' of snow in about one hour and the damage along the Doe River was immense.  I don't think NE TN gets to that point, but in the mountains there is a decent amount of snow right now.

 

Unfortunately, southeast KY got the snow too, and isn't being affected as much by any downsloping.  I'd say some flooding is in the works up there, especially along the Cumberland River.  Precipitation has been falling almost continuously since yesterday.  First the snow, and now heavy rain on top of it. 

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The Euro is rolling out super slowly but It shows an inch or two along the Tennessee/Kentucky border so far on the back side. Doesn't go up this side of the Apps though, goes up Western NC.

 

That makes the most sense given the synoptic set-up.  One could make a case for the west side of the Apps, but east has always made the most sense.  Probably won't help us much unless it were to really deepen as it turned the corner. 

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Unfortunately, southeast KY got the snow too, and isn't being affected as much by any downsloping.  I'd say some flooding is in the works up there, especially along the Cumberland River.  Precipitation has been falling almost continuously since yesterday.  First the snow, and now heavy rain on top of it. 

 

Yep...incredible amounts of water stored in the "snowpack."  Also, did we get an update on high wind potential?  I know it was mentioned last night on a local news outlet up here...I think. 

 

Also, for those of you new to the board.  Mathmet made an appearance last night.  He is a met who is very knowledgeable about mountain wave events, specifically, the Camp Creek are in Greeneville.

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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

137 PM EST MON FEB 15 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED ZONES LAST HOUR TO REMOVE WINTER STORM

WARNING AND UPDATE WIND ADVISORY TO HIGH WIND WARNING FOR COUNTIES

IN THE MOUNTAINS AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW

APPROACHING THE EAST TN AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE RISING

RAPIDLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS ABOVE ABOUT 2000 FEET BUT

ARE ONLY RISING SLOWLY IN LOWER ELEVATIONS AS THE COLD AIR IS STILL

TRAPPED. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE

UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AS SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE.

 

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I think downsloping is starting to scour out some of the clouds here in Chestnut Hill south of Dandridge.  The sun is peeking out.  If so, the cold will begin to erode quickly, as well. 

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18z NAM still had the backside snow but not as deep down the Plateau or into NE Tn at all. It's going to be very close if the NAM verifies. Could be another case of someone having 3-4 fresh inches and 5 miles away nothing.

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18z NAM still had the backside snow but not as deep down the Plateau or into NE Tn at all. It's going to be very close if the NAM verifies. Could be another case of someone having 3-4 fresh inches and 5 miles away nothing.

Looking at 850 and 925 temps at 6z through 12z show them right at 32' for my location with surface temps in the mid to upper 30'. This gives me hope with the mods busting too high the last several days.

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MRX thinks the low will some how track ENE from southern Miss and Ala to E Tenn. Seems to me the track would need to be much steeper.

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Unless some warmth moves in before midnight, it's the third day in a row the models have sorely missed the temperature mark.  Not even close here.  Stuck at 34F.

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Haha I saw that. If the low is in southern MS/AL, it will probably not be possible for it to track E/NE into E TN. If it were in N MS/AL, then yeah, that would work. Think that was an error? I can't tell where the low is on the map.

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JKL put out a WWA for their western counties. Including the county to my NW above Scott. Had this to say,

 

 

 

THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING IN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS AND ALONG CREEKS AND STREAMS. AS THE LOW LIFTS TO
OUR NE OVERNIGHT...COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO OUR AREA ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM...ALLOWING THE RAIN TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.
EVEN IF TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...THE DYNAMICS WITHIN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE RAIN OVER TO
SNOW. THE BEST CHANCE FOR 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE IN THE
WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES WHICH ARE NOW IN A WINTER WX ADVISORY.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE ADVISORY TO BE EXPANDED TO THE EAST BUT
WILL LET THE EVENING SHIFT UPDATE IF NEEDED.
 

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JKL put out a WWA for their western counties. Including the county to my NW above Scott. Had this to say,

The 19z HRRR buried parts of Kentucky in JKL's viewing area with 6 inches of snow.

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It's interesting how Knoxville is still the coldest spot in the region at 34 degrees.

KTRI: 39

Crossville: 36

Wise, VA: 41

Cherokee Elementary School in Johnson City is at 51!

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The 20z HRRR is expanding it's snow into Tennessee in similar fashion to the NAM now and it does indeed smoke Kentucky with deform band crushing. 1-2 inch per hour heavy wet snow.

Wut woo

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To me this storm is fascinating. It has so many aspects to it like snow, sleet, zr, flooding, mountain wave event and now tornadoes. The Deep South has gotten rocked by tornadoes today. This one is looking nasty coming out of the Florida Panhandle.

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I heard David Aldrich on television somewhere in the house and he seemed to be saying that even Knox would switch to snow tonight. I could have misheard though.

I just heard it a minute ago. he said the temperature only going up to 34 should have been a red flag and he thinks after midnight it will change over to snow. Matt Hinkin thinks it will be in the 40's at midnight and rain in Knoxville.

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