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Brick Tamland

Feb 7 Winter Storm

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They have decided to keep it one big thread this time around.  I asked yesterday.

Thanks, must have missed that...would love a N/NW trend...all we have here now is cold and the crisp electric 'snowy' feel

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Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue)

2/6/16, 21:18

Explosive cyclone development off Carolina coast 1002 mb: 07/12z 969 mb: 07/21z 33 mb in 9-hrs at 32°N latitude pic.twitter.com/XMF0LRUrPM

9qohMO9.jpg

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hrrr trying hard to throw precip back towards rdu tomorrow morning, eastern nc looks good.

 

 

That looks great and would love for the RAP totals to be correct but man experience tells me to expect rain and hope for better. Very few times does it work out in our favor.

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That looks great and would love for the RAP totals to be correct but man experience tells me to expect rain and hope for better. Very few times does it work out in our favor.

I agree, that would bust RAH and MHXs forecast if it verified, big time.

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I agree, that would bust RAH and MHXs forecast if it verified, big time.

 

This system could do it for sure. Just my gut tells me rain because I can count on one hand the number of times a top down rate driven system has actually worked out for us here in the coastal plain.

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This system could do it for sure. Just my gut tells me rain because I can count on one hand the number of times a top down rate driven system has actually worked out for us here in the coastal plain.

We should know here shortly. It has us starting as pingers around 4am and then a change to snow dominant type around 10. If it is raining at 7 in the morning then it is wrong.

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At this point the RAP is just getting silly

I hate to get sucked in but the HRRR's snow flag is starting to go off too. You can likely cut the ratio in half, but still 2-4" for the coastal plain, not finished either.

573afb538843f068cab987a7d6aee683.jpg

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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I hate to get sucked in but the HRRR's snow flag is starting to go off too. You can likely cut the ratio in half, but still 2-4" for the coastal plain, not finished either.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

Well that would make the most sense seeing that we have no watches up. To be sure if MHX was putting any weight into these hi-res solutions they would be pulling the trigger on a winter weather advisory but they haven't.

 

I'm on 3rd shift and at work if you feel like calling me man.

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I want to post this here.  For anyone who has been disobeying the AmericanWX staff messages about not posting them.  I will also post this again in the next potential Winter weather thread.  I hope you guys save the image (mods) and post it directly when asked about the posting of Weatherbell maps.  Ryan sent me this directly just now.  I asked him to give me an absolute explanation I could put out there from him.  He told me he didn't need me to police the forums or anything, but I wanted to post it and let everyone know the actual fact.  Please don't share anything outside of WMO essential Euro products from Weatherbell (on the ECMWF side).  If you like the data, subscribe.. it makes it easier on you in the longer range.. not having to rely on forum posters to post data for your area.

 

 

Just to clarify, he singles out not to post Euro products, but what about other guidance such as the RAP, as I posted a while ago? 

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Just to clarify, he singles out not to post Euro products, but what about other guidance such as the RAP, as I posted a while ago? 

 

Its fine, just don't habitually do it from what I hear.  I deleted the post.  I can't speak for the company or any of the products they offer.  I can tell you though.. that Weatherbell maps are the best out there!

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FWIW, Euro shifted a bit west with its snow. Has 5-8" in Fayetteville, even 2-4" at RDU on south. 

Euro has the look of the precip shield moving northwest a bit, like the HRRR....didn't have that look in the 12z run.  Also, the sfc low took a decent jog to the NW this run.  It basically moves directly north from 12z to 21z tomorrow.  

 

The French model may of have the best handle on this system all along....going back a couple days

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Based on radar and the hrrr, rap, and now euro, I think the best chance for accumulations is along and 30 miles either side of a line from Lumberton to Greenville. Fayetteville and Clinton look to be as good a place as any for this one.

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Based on radar and the hrrr, rap, and now euro, I think the best chance for accumulations is along and 30 miles either side of a line from Lumberton to Greenville. Fayetteville and Clinton look to be as good a place as any for this one.

 

Still trying to not get sucked in by these encouraging signs but I'd think some big fat flakes flying is certainly within the realm of belief at this point.

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Sleeting in Rockingham, NC.

Precip depiction on radarscope just flipped to snow out of both the ILM and RAH sites for your area, over to FAY.

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QPF Estimates on the Euro for 12z (old run) -> 00z (new run)...

 

Myrtle Beach: 1.3 (old) -> 2.3 (new)

Florence: 0.6 -> 0.6

Charleston: 1.1 -> 2.1

Fayetteville: 0.1 -> 0.8

Southern Wake County: Trace -> 0.3

 

There's a spot halfway between Fayetteville and Wilmington that increased from 0.2 to 2.0 on the Euro this run.

 

Greenville, NC precip is only 0.1 or so...very tight precip gradient between there and Myrtle Beach.

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QPF Estimates on the Euro for 12z (old run) -> 00z (new run)...

 

Myrtle Beach: 1.3 (old) -> 2.3 (new)

Florence: 0.6 -> 0.6

Charleston: 1.1 -> 2.1

Fayetteville: 0.1 -> 0.8

Southern Wake County: Trace -> 0.3

 

There's a spot halfway between Fayetteville and Wilmington that increased from 0.2 to 2.0 on the Euro this run.

 

Greenville, NC precip is only 0.1 or so...very tight precip gradient between there and Myrtle Beach.

 

Yeah the hi-res models are in pretty stark contrast with that and they are painting us with a few inches of snow here in Greenville. Who knows how this will shake out. Interesting storm for sure.

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