• Member Statistics

    16,050
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NWAflizzard
    Newest Member
    NWAflizzard
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
HurricaneJosh

Hurricane PATRICIA & Major EPAC Landfalls

Recommended Posts

Hi, all!

 

The last thread got locked-- I guess the energy got weird and negative. Anyhoo, I decided to launch a new thread about Hurricane PATRICIA because it fascinates me, and it should be discussed. I'm hoping this new thread will bring a breath of fresh air and a new dynamic to the discussion.

 

Not only is PATRICIA the strongest hurricane in history, but it was likely the strongest hurricane landfall ever on Mexico's Pacific coast.

 

For anyone who doesn't know, I chased PATRICIA and got in the eye very close to the landfall point. It was one of the biggest scores in my career.

 

Here's my complete, detailed report on this incredible event: goo.gl/Yn5Ftx

 

Here's my barogram, with color-coding to show the periods of damaging winds, violent winds, and passage of the eye:

 

post-19-0-75534400-1448043450_thumb.png

 

And here's my video documenting the whole event: 

 

 

After reaching a mind-blowing peak intensity of 175 kt (!), the hurricane weakened as it approached the coast, and there are questions Re: the landfall intensity-- whether it was a low-end Cat 5 or high-end Cat 4.

 

The NHC is poring over the data now, trying to reconstruct what happened and reach a conclusion. A couple of big pieces of the puzzle:

  • My pressure data from the inner core. I collected continuous, high-res, quality-controlled pressure data on two devices (hidden in a protected place) as the violent cyclone approached, hit us, and moved away. The signals from these data are mixed. The minimum pressure I measured inside the outer edge of the eye (937.8 mb) is not terribly low for an extremely severe hurricane, but the hurricane's core was very, very compact, and the pressure gradients I measured in the inner eyewall were incredible-- over 11 mb/n mi in one place.
  • A recent ground survey recently conducted by a NOAA team. I've seen an initial draft of the report (in Spanish), and I'm hoping it'll be released to the public soon. The NOAA meteorologist who led it says there were more anemometers in the landfall region, and they're hoping the Mexican government will soon extract and release those data-- in which case, they'll publish a later version of their survey report.

For the record: I do not take a position on whether PATRICIA was a Cat 4 or 5 at landfall. REPEAT: I do not take a position on whether it was a Cat 4 or 5.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Holy crap that 2nd eyewall packed a punch!

 

Yeah, it was nuts! There was a definite asymmetry, with the really vigorous energy focused in the S eyewall. I think it had to do with the fact that the front-side winds were pulling off land (and the terrain around there is very coarse), whereas the backside winds were pulling off the water.

 

Thanks for watching the video! :) 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

what caused the highest winds to be seemingly disconnected from the eyewall by 30 minutes?  Is that normal?  

 

The highest winds were embedded in the heart of the eyewall. There was just some ramp-up time between the lull and the highest winds-- less than 20 minutes.

 

I want to reemphasize that everything with Hurricane PATRICIA happened on a very small scale, spatially and temporally. It was a small, violent hurricane that came and went in a very short time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The highest winds were embedded in the heart of the eyewall. There was just some ramp-up time between the lull and the highest winds-- less than 20 minutes.

 

I want to reemphasize that everything with Hurricane PATRICIA happened on a very small scale, spatially and temporally. It was a small, violent hurricane that came and went in a very short time.

I must say that I don't think I've ever seen such a violent post-eyewall event such as you had compared to what happened prior.  Glad you captured that Josh.  My only wish is that you had captured a shot post-Armageddon of the buildings/landscape from the same balcony and position that you had filmed prior to the eye.  I can only imagine the devastation and compare/contrast to what it had looked like.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I must say that I don't think I've ever seen such a violent post-eyewall event such as you had compared to what happened prior.  Glad you captured that Josh.  My only wish is that you had captured a shot post-Armageddon of the buildings/landscape from the same balcony and position that you had filmed prior to the eye.  I can only imagine the devastation and compare/contrast to what it had looked like.

 

Thanks! (I assume you meant "post-eye," as the really violent stuff was the eyewall.)

 

While the video doesn't specifically include an after shot from that view, my report (link above) does show that view in the damage pics, so check it out! :)

 

Thanks for watching the video-- glad you found it interesting. :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks! (I assume you meant "post-eye," as the really violent stuff was the eyewall.)

 

While the video doesn't specifically include an after shot from that view, my report (link above) does show that view in the damage pics, so check it out! :)

 

Thanks for watching the video-- glad you found it interesting. :)

No, thank you Josh.  Great video.  You and I knew of each other before icyclone.  You were in Prague then.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No, thank you Josh.  Great video.  You and I knew of each other before icyclone.  You were in Prague then.  

 

Yeah, I totally remember our interactions. Nice to see you again. :)

 

I moved back to the USA a few years ago. Europe was awesome, but it was time-- I missed Southern California, and I was too far away to chase as much as I like.

 

Anyhoo, I'm really glad you dig the video-- thank you again. :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah, it was nuts! There was a definite asymmetry, with the really vigorous energy focused in the S eyewall. I think it had to do with the fact that the front-side winds were pulling off land (and the terrain around there is very coarse), whereas the backside winds were pulling off the water.

Thanks for watching the video! :)

I agree that part of the reason winds were weaker with the first part of the eyewall (N and E side) were that winds were coming off the land. But I think the main reason was that the eyewall was at least partially open on the northeast side at landfall while the southern and western sides of the eyewall remained intact and very intense.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It shows you should never let your guard down during a hurricane, the worst winds didn't start until about 15mb up from the lowest pressure.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree that part of the reason winds were weaker with the first part of the eyewall (N and E side) were that winds were coming off the land. But I think the main reason was that the eyewall was at least partially open on the northeast side at landfall while the southern and western sides of the eyewall remained intact and very intense.

 

I think it was some combo, and also that these factors (partially degraded eyewall and inflow off the land) are actually interrelated.

 

It shows you should never let your guard down during a hurricane, the worst winds didn't start until about 15mb up from the lowest pressure.

 

Very good point. I feel like this has happened to me in a couple of hurricanes recently-- where the sh*t really hit the fan after I thought we'd cleared the worst. It's so true: never let your guard down.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Great analysis Josh and congratulations on another successful intercept year. Looking forward to seeing you next Spring at the various Tropical Weather Conferences.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Great analysis Josh and congratulations on another successful intercept year. Looking forward to seeing you next Spring at the various Tropical Weather Conferences.

 

Thanks, Steve! :) Yeah, I am excited about the spring conferences! Is there a chance I'll see you on South Padre Island? I'm booked at that one for sure-- gonna give a big presentation on.... PATRICIA. :)

 

Psyched to catch up with you.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks, Steve! :) Yeah, I am excited about the spring conferences! Is there a chance I'll see you on South Padre Island? I'm booked at that one for sure-- gonna give a big presentation on.... PATRICIA. :)

Psyched to catch up with you.

Definitely will be at South Padre Island in April. The National Tropical Weather Conference is a fantastic venue and just the right size, attendance wise. The early lineup of presentations look very impressive as well.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Definitely will be at South Padre Island in April. The National Tropical Weather Conference is a fantastic venue and just the right size, attendance wise. The early lineup of presentations look very impressive as well.

 

Yeah, it is a great lineup! It's an honor to be among them.

 

This video was awesome....great chase Josh! :)

 

Awww, thanks, Adam. Glad you liked it. :wub:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Josh, just fantastic!  You epitomize the phrase "go after your dreams"...you are to be admired for your motivation, dedication, and true professionalism during the pursuit of your aspirations!! :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Josh, just fantastic!  You epitomize the phrase "go after your dreams"...you are to be admired for your motivation, dedication, and true professionalism during the pursuit of your aspirations!! :)

 

Wow, thank you, LEK! That is seriously the nicest thing anyone could say to me. Thank you. :) I'm glad you dug my work on this one.

 

Nice to hear from you, by the way. We haven't chatted forever.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Josh,

 

You've had so many fantastic intercepts recently in the Pacific (both east and west) that I've followed heartily...but don't you wish that some of that activity will filter closer to home? The lack of a major U.S. landfall since 2005 has really added manifold costs to your far-flung chases. Every once in a while, you need a little extra geographical variety. Plus, you've chased a lot of compact, intense cyclones recently...don't you wish for a big but intense major closer to the U.S.?

 

We haven't had a large-sized Category 4/5 landfall in the U.S. since HUGO 1989. On this matter, the standpoints of preparedness and storm chasing converge nicely, for such a long period--more than 26 years--without a sprawling, extremely strong landfall (by maximum sustained winds of ≥113 kt) also gives coastal communities a false sense of security, especially given fading memories of the human mistakes made before, during, and after such storms like KATRINA, a large storm that still degraded significantly prior to landfall.

 

A lot of people thought that existing infrastructure and emergency readiness could handle a storm like KATRINA (and even Cat.-1 winds in WILMA in Southeast FL)...yet we ended up with 1,836 dead, ignored evacuation orders, poor maintenance of infrastructure, and a dismal response on the local, state, and federal levels. South FL, especially its condos, fared surprisingly badly in Cat.-1 WILMA. Given how no one left Key West prior to WILMA, and how many officials in Galveston dismissed IKE, you have to wonder if we are giving ourselves too much credit. We were just lucky that we didn't have worst-case scenarios.

 

Ultimately, going too long without a major hurricane of HUGO-type proportions allows societies to continue to tolerate corrupt politics, poor communications, bad infrastructure, and complacency that put communities at risk. Perhaps we should not assume that, say, a repeat of the 1926 Miami hurricane--a very large, 125-kt/930-mb 'cane (read the Wikipedia article that I expanded)--would not result in hundreds of deaths, even in South FL, especially given the degraded Okeechobee dike.

 

So, if people blame you for eagerly anticipating major landfalls as chase subjects, you should also remind them that hurricanes serve a larger Darwinian purpose in weeding out faulty logic, poor policies, misplaced societal priorities, and the body of people who just won't listen and get out as needed. You actually NEED big storms (and other, more human-made catastrophes) to occur on a rather frequent basis for societies to learn from error, advance, and adapt for the better. Plus, they're essential to scientific analysis that improves our knowledge of tropical cyclones and their dynamics.

 

I'm sorry if I went a bit off topic, but this just reflects my appreciation and admiration for your scientifically invaluable work. Keep it up, and Happy Thanksgiving! :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hey, folks! A few things:

 

POSTANALYSIS UPDATE

 

I was in Miami last week and stopped by the National Hurricane Center to say hi, get a tour, and answer any questions about my PATRICIA data. As you can imagine, they're hard at work on the PATRICIA postanalysis. The report should be out in December.

 

This aside, I've seen a copy of the NOAA ground survey in English (the original draft was in Spanish). It's pretty detailed and has lots of pics. I'm hoping they'll release it to the public soon, although I don't have an exact date. As soon as it's out there, I'll publish the link here.

 

STRONGEST EPAC LANDFALL GOES TO...

 

Whatever happens with the final landfall intensity, it's likely PATRICIA is the strongest recorded hurricane landfall on Mexico's Pacific Coast.

 

How come?

 

The two top dogs (when it comes to EPAC landfalls) are PATRICIA 2015 and the Great Mexico Hurricane of 1959. Re: each:

  • As discussed, there's some debate about PATRICIA's landfall intensity-- whether it was a Cat 5 or Cat 4. The reasonable range of possible verdicts goes from 130 kt to 145 kt. I'm pretty certain the final call will fall in this range.
  • The Great Mexico Hurricane of 1959 is currently logged as 140 kt at landfall. However, as many of you know, my research partners (Andrew Hagen, Erik Sereno, and Jorge Gonzalez (wxmx)) and I did a deep reanalysis of that storm, and we set the landfall intensity at 120 kt. We could find no credible evidence remotely supporting Cat-5 intensity-- and we dug very deep in the Mexican archives for every shred of data. The NHC's Best Track Committee is reviewing our paper, and they've not yet accepted our recommendations.

Assuming 1) PATRICIA's postanalyzed landfall intensity falls within the range I've given (130-145 kt) and 2) the Best Track Committee accepts a 1959 landfall intensity that's roughly in our ballpark (120 kt), then PATRICIA will keeps its crown as the EPAC's fiercest landfall.

 

STRONGEST EPAC LANDFALLSREFERENCE

 

For reference, here's all major landfalls on this side since 1949, in order of current accepted intensity. Pink = Cat 5, red = Cat 4, orange = Cat 3. (Notice that 75% of them were in October.) Again, PATRICIA 2015 and 1959 are both under review:
 
2015 PATRICIA (23 Oct) - Jalisco - Cat 5 (145 kt)**
 
1959 Great Mexico Hurricane (27 Oct) - Colima - Cat 5 (140 kt)**
 
1976 MADELINE (08 Oct) - Guerrero - Cat 4 (125 kt)
 
2002 KENNA (25 Oct) - Nayarit - Cat 4 (120 kt)
1957 No. 10 (22 Oct) - Sinaloa - Cat 4 (120 kt)
 
2014 ODILE (14 Sep) - Baja California Sur - Cat 3 (110 kt)
2006 LANE (16 Sep) - Sinaloa - Cat 3 (110 kt)
1983 TICO (19 Oct) - Sinaloa - Cat 3 (110 kt)
1967 OLIVIA (14 Oct) - Baja California Sur - Cat 3 (110 kt)
 
1989 KIKO (27 Aug) - Baja California Sur - Cat 3 (100 kt)
1976 LIZA (01 Oct) - Sinaloa - Cat 3 (~100 kt)
1975 OLIVIA (25 Oct) - Sinaloa - Cat 3 (100 kt)
 
** Under review.
 
________
 
More soon!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Having seen about the best the Northern Hemisphere can offer, have you given any thought about going down under for some Aussie or Madagascar storms/

Steve

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Having seen about the best the Northern Hemisphere can offer, have you given any thought about going down under for some Aussie or Madagascar storms/

Steve

 

Steve! So very nice to hear from you! :) It's been forever. I hope you're well.

 

To answer your question: yes, absolutely. I've been itching to do my first S Hemisphere chase. I think Australia would be a little easier, but I'm finding Madagascar very alluring-- just because it's so very exotic. Maybe this will be the year...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hey, folks! 

 

I'm doing a poster presentation on my Hurricane PATRICIA data at the 96th AMS Annual Meeting in New Orleans. My abstract was just accepted last week-- woo hoo!

 

My presentation-- Hurricane PATRICIA in Jalisco, Mexico-- is on Mon 11 Jan in the "IMPACTS: Major Weather Events and Impacts of 2015" session.

 

Hope to see you there!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hey, folks! 

 

I'm doing a poster presentation on my Hurricane PATRICIA data at the 96th AMS Annual Meeting in New Orleans. My abstract was just accepted last week-- woo hoo!

 

My presentation-- Hurricane PATRICIA in Jalisco, Mexico-- is on Mon 11 Jan in the "IMPACTS: Major Weather Events and Impacts of 2015" session.

 

Hope to see you there!

 

 

Awesome, looking forward to it. 

 

MU is sending the upperclassman down there this year, so I'll make sure to stop by and say hello! 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Awesome, looking forward to it. 

 

MU is sending the upperclassman down there this year, so I'll make sure to stop by and say hello! 

 

Very, very cool. :) I look forward to meeting you.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Great video and commentary.  What a storm!  Will be interesting to read some of the follow up information over the coming year or two.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Great video and commentary.  What a storm!  Will be interesting to read some of the follow up information over the coming year or two.

 

Hey, thanks, Beau! Glad you liked it. :) I feel like it's maybe my best chase and best work.

 

I'm very excited to see what the NHC's final analysis. I know they're working hard on it, given the historic stature of this cyclone (strongest hurricane ever recorded on earth, strongest Pacific hurricane landfall), and I expect the report is going to be detailed and thoughtful.

 

P.S. How've you been?? :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm excited to present my data from the inner core of Hurricane PATRICIA in a poster presentation at the American Meteorological Society's 96th Annual Meeting in New Orleans, Louisiana, on 10-14 January.

 

My high-res air-pressure data—along with a detailed storm timeline reconstructed from my timestamped video footage—tell us a whole lot about the inner-core structure and intensity of this extremely violent hurricane—the strongest ever to hit Mexico's Pacific coast. And my presentation will hit the highlights. If you're attending this AMS event, please come by and say hey. (I'll be presenting at 2:30 pm on 11 January in the IMPACTS session.)

 

On a side note: my poster will be right next to tornadotony's! :D

 

Who else is going? Let me know!

 

P.S. It looks like the NHC's PATRICIA report—and final verdict Re: landfall intensity—probably won't come out until January. This is a small bummer, as I wanted my NOLA poster to reflect the final analysis. I make cool posters, and I dread the idea of creating one that becomes immediately dated during or just days after the presentation. But it seems I have no choice but to use the operational values.

post-19-0-26205900-1449658513_thumb.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.