colonel717 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 EURO Ensembles say dont get excited yet. Euro EPS mean low position day 5 in Alabama. At day 6, 996 low off Hatteras Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 EURO Ensembles say dont get excited yet. Still plenty of time to trend. There are some good hits in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 EURO Ensembles say dont get excited yet. I'd be curious to see the individuals members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Still plenty of time to trend. There are some good hits in there. I prefer south at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I'd be curious to see the individuals members. Sitting here waiting for the game. I got you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Sitting here waiting for the game. I got you. I'm fine with those. I counted 16 that showed around a foot or more and all the misses are south. Best case scenario at this range imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 This is a copy of a model that I saved from the Feb 2010 storm. I remember at the time that the local mets were all not believing it as was I. It for once ended up verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Sharp cutoff with the heavier stuff at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 No panic. Lots of time. Yesterday we had 2 inches with with a foot north of us. Now we have a foot to our south. Now it is time to balance out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 No panic yet. Kind of glad it played out that way.. calmed me down a little bit after that 12z Euro run. Such a stressful hobby at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Now cast getting heavy snow with the squall. .25 visibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Getting crushed under a heavy band right now! Close to 2 inches so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Yes!!!! See-no one is talking about tonight!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Not a bad day today after what had apparently dwindled down to nothing. Still in what I consider the "fantasy range" for next weekend, but at least there is something juicy to look at. We're not in total fantasy range (basically between 180-300 hours). We'll see how the week goes, though don't look at individual runs and instead follow trends to get an idea of how the storm will turn. Remember it is very rare for models to lock onto a storm 7-days out and continue the same look for the entirety. I think the last time that happened was March 1993. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Yes!!!! See-no one is talking about tonight!! Well, I'm not because I live in Bethel and not much is happening here. I'm sure you remember that quite well. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Coming down good here at the moment. Everything has a coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 How many times have we seen these weenie generated maps spit out historical amounts 5 or 6 days away and we either end up with nothing even close or nothing at all. If this is still showing something Wednesday, I'll start to take it seriously. We've been burned way too many times long range. Keep an eye on it but nothing more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 How many times have we seen these weenie generated maps spit out historical amounts 5 or 6 days away and we either end up with nothing even close or nothing at all. If this is still showing something Wednesday, I'll start to take it seriously. We've been burned way too many times long range. Keep an eye on it but nothing more. Yea, this isn't locked in. GFS is showing under 5 inches Euro 36 inches, lets meet half way and call it a day. The Steelers let us down, hopefully old man winter wont.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I Kind of want these model runs to pull back a little until around wednesday. I hate to admit but it never works out with us in the bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I Kind of want these model runs to pull back a little until around wednesday. I hate to admit but it never works out with us in the bullseye. I am with you... But, the only bullseye we are in is the EURO. So we still have time to trend to bullseye on all models.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 One thing to watch on the GFS will be how that initial clipper low that comes Wednesday plays out. If its to strong, it will knock down heights ahead of the weekend storm allowing it to go SE, if its to weak, then we end up with mixing issues like the CMC had a couple days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Not sure how that translates to WPa but imagine it would be pretty good. Sounds good, having all these PARA models makes it even more fun, more model loops to watch lol. Hopefully the GFS starts to trend towards the Euro, normally that would be the outcome, but since the Euro is good for us it'll probably go the other way lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 All of the variables that will come into play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Sounds good, having all these PARA models makes it even more fun, more model loops to watch lol. Hopefully the GFS starts to trend towards the Euro, normally that would be the outcome, but since the Euro is good for us it'll probably go the other way lol Unfortunately the poster was looking at last nights run so I deleted my post. Its not out yet, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 GFS looking good through 117h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 That'll do I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 That'll do I guess. 4 ft in Harrisburg. No local mets talking about weekend potential. Just mentioned chance of snow showers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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