October 16th-18th Lake Effect Snow

[CanadianGuy]

This weekend is looking more and more significant for the time of year. A snow squall watch says up to 6" will be possible in London, Ont.

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[slow poke]

Northern Lower MI should see some light snow this weekend also. We'll be out playing in whatever falls Saturday with the side x sides, ATV's and dirt bikes. We have a big poker run/find raiser Saturday up near Gaylord. Sounds like most of the snow accumulation will be south and east of there though near Kalkaska with the North to north west wind. Gaylord area needs the wind to be a little more in the west direction to get anything heavy out of this it sounds like.

[weatherbo]

first snow of the season fell. Woke up at 4, it was snowing and 32. has since cleared and dropped to 30. The snow stuck to portions of the roof, car and leaves, which all came down at once this year. should see snow off and on until tomorrow.

today through tomorrow

[CanadianGuy]

Still lake effect rain and 44 imby. It should switch over to wet snow later tonight.

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[slow poke]

The first time I have seen NWS Gaylord mention Lake Nipigon connection before. I thought that was pretty interesting.

[josh_4184]

The first time I have seen NWS Gaylord mention Lake Nipigon connection before. I thought that was pretty interesting.

I thought the same thing when I read the AFD, never heard them mention that lake before I had to look it up on google lol.  It does look like Mancy towards Kalkaska will get the better chance at accumulations, my area needs a more NW dominated flow to see better banding. 

[on_wx]

6 counties under snow squall watch southeast of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. EC HRDPS 00z output had 8"+ around Parkhilll area northwest of London and approaching a foot northwest of Barrie.

 

EC sticking to their magic snowfall number of near 15cm (6") in the watch

[OHweather]

Yeah, this is looking really interesting for a few places this weekend...

 

Off of Lake Superior, I'm thinking that winds changing through the event will keep accumulations under control. A little trough drops south across the Lake and should cause activity to intensify this evening...850mb temps of -8 to -10C and 925mb temps of -2 to -3C should easily support accums in the higher terrain. The activity may swing west towards MQT for a time tonight, and the more northerly flow for a few hours behind the trough should hit the higher terrain west of MQT for a time tonight. The winds go more NW by Saturday morning which should shift the bulk of the activity east of MQT. The winds never stop shifting completely so I think 1-3" in the higher terrain east of MQT in Alger county should about do it...maybe a half inch in the higher terrain west of MQT.

 

Off of Lake Michigan conditions become very favorable for decent lake effect this evening as the same trough drops through. Winds will initially be NNW which should hit areas between Traverse City and Gaylord, but will go more due N late tonight behind the trough which should shift things to just S and W of Traverse City. Winds start backing on Saturday to WNW and then whip around to the N again Saturday night as inversions start coming down...overall think maybe 1-2" in the higher terrain where the bands affect over the next two nights, winds look too variable for a band to sit and allow for better accumulations.

 

Off of Lake Huron I'm more intrigued...the winds look like they'll hardly move from late tonight through late Saturday afternoon with extreme lake induced instability (CAPE on the order of 1000 J/KG+ from around midnight tonight through very early Sunday), very high equilibrium levels (15-20k feet through early Sunday) and deep moisture with help from upstream lakes (high RH air to near or above 10k feet late tonight through very early Sunday) in place. The winds are well aligned and will have the full fetch of the lake to work with. A very intense band with thunder and lightning is likely downwind of Lake Huron this evening through Saturday night, with little movement possible through much of the day Saturday. The winds will be NW late tonight through Saturday which I'd have to imagine supports the heaviest band staying just north/east of London, but I'm not a Lake Huron band expert.

 

Saturday evening the winds initially gain a more westerly component ahead of an approaching trough which should push any band farther east and possibly weaken it some for a few hours. The winds become decently well aligned for a few hours out of the NW again late Saturday night into early Sunday before becoming more northerly and pushing everything west. Instability and moisture slowly wane during the day Sunday which should cause a slow end to things.

 

Potential accums are definitely tough...with 925mb temps of -1C to -2C tonight, well aligned winds in the boundary layer on the order of 20-30 knots (not too strong) and a likely very strong band, I fully expect dynamical cooling to change precip over to snow tonight under any strong band. Temps warm a tad during the day Saturday, but assuming a band continues, it should remain all snow under it (maybe the lakeshore tries changing to rain during the afternoon?). Heavy wet snow will accumulate despite wet ground. There could be a 12 hour period tonight into Saturday where the band moves very little off of the southern end of the lake, and that could produce 6-10". Things start moving around move Saturday evening through Sunday morning, but another 1-3" could fall on spots very early Sunday if the winds can stabilize for a few hours. This could be a pretty significant event with a lot of tree damage.

 

Off of Lake Erie temperatures are a bit too warm in NE Ohio to get accums with this type of weaker multi-banded setup...maybe the higher terrain in Geauga or inland Ashtabula can get half an inch. In NW PA and perhaps into Chautauqua County in SW NY, there is more terrain and likely will be heavier precip rates beneath a likely Huron-Erie connection. It will take until later tonight for temps to support accumulating snows in the higher terrains, but there should be a few hours of fairly steady banding in central/eastern portions of Erie/Crawford Counties in NW PA, with likely accums in the higher terrain with 925mb temps of near -1C and extreme lake induced instability and moisture from Lake Huron supporting a moderate to heavy band. Winds here also shift more WNW for a time Saturday afternoon/evening before going more NNW for a time Saturday night before going WNW again Sunday morning. Think the shifting winds and slightly warmer mid-level temps during the day Saturday will keep additional accums Saturday afternoon fairly light...maybe another inch in the higher terrain. Late Saturday night into Sunday morning as the winds become more steady again from the NW or WNW, there could be a period of some accums, again probably in eastern Erie/Crawford counties in NW PA perhaps into Chautauqua County NW and perhaps into parts of Venego/Forest/Warren Counties. Overall due to less persistent banding and more marginal temps here I think maybe 2-4" falls in the higher terrain. If a band persists for longer then maybe a local lolly to 6" is possible.

 

 

[josh_4184]

Yeah, this is looking really interesting for a few places this weekend...

 

Off of Lake Superior, I'm thinking that winds changing through the event will keep accumulations under control. A little trough drops south across the Lake and should cause activity to intensify this evening...850mb temps of -8 to -10C and 925mb temps of -2 to -3C should easily support accums in the higher terrain. The activity may swing west towards MQT for a time tonight, and the more northerly flow for a few hours behind the trough should hit the higher terrain west of MQT for a time tonight. The winds go more NW by Saturday morning which should shift the bulk of the activity east of MQT. The winds never stop shifting completely so I think 1-3" in the higher terrain east of MQT in Alger county should about do it...maybe a half inch in the higher terrain west of MQT.

 

Off of Lake Michigan conditions become very favorable for decent lake effect this evening as the same trough drops through. Winds will initially be NNW which should hit areas between Traverse City and Gaylord, but will go more due N late tonight behind the trough which should shift things to just S and W of Traverse City. Winds start backing on Saturday to WNW and then whip around to the N again Saturday night as inversions start coming down...overall think maybe 1-2" in the higher terrain where the bands affect over the next two nights, winds look too variable for a band to sit and allow for better accumulations.

 

Off of Lake Huron I'm more intrigued...the winds look like they'll hardly move from late tonight through late Saturday afternoon with extreme lake induced instability (CAPE on the order of 1000 J/KG+ from around midnight tonight through very early Sunday), very high equilibrium levels (15-20k feet through early Sunday) and deep moisture with help from upstream lakes (high RH air to near or above 10k feet late tonight through very early Sunday) in place. The winds are well aligned and will have the full fetch of the lake to work with. A very intense band with thunder and lightning is likely downwind of Lake Huron this evening through Saturday night, with little movement possible through much of the day Saturday. The winds will be NW late tonight through Saturday which I'd have to imagine supports the heaviest band staying just north/east of London, but I'm not a Lake Huron band expert.

 

Saturday evening the winds initially gain a more westerly component ahead of an approaching trough which should push any band farther east and possibly weaken it some for a few hours. The winds become decently well aligned for a few hours out of the NW again late Saturday night into early Sunday before becoming more northerly and pushing everything west. Instability and moisture slowly wane during the day Sunday which should cause a slow end to things.

 

Potential accums are definitely tough...with 925mb temps of -1C to -2C tonight, well aligned winds in the boundary layer on the order of 20-30 knots (not too strong) and a likely very strong band, I fully expect dynamical cooling to change precip over to snow tonight under any strong band. Temps warm a tad during the day Saturday, but assuming a band continues, it should remain all snow under it (maybe the lakeshore tries changing to rain during the afternoon?). Heavy wet snow will accumulate despite wet ground. There could be a 12 hour period tonight into Saturday where the band moves very little off of the southern end of the lake, and that could produce 6-10". Things start moving around move Saturday evening through Sunday morning, but another 1-3" could fall on spots very early Sunday if the winds can stabilize for a few hours. This could be a pretty significant event with a lot of tree damage.

 

Off of Lake Erie temperatures are a bit too warm in NE Ohio to get accums with this type of weaker multi-banded setup...maybe the higher terrain in Geauga or inland Ashtabula can get half an inch. In NW PA and perhaps into Chautauqua County in SW NY, there is more terrain and likely will be heavier precip rates beneath a likely Huron-Erie connection. It will take until later tonight for temps to support accumulating snows in the higher terrains, but there should be a few hours of fairly steady banding in central/eastern portions of Erie/Crawford Counties in NW PA, with likely accums in the higher terrain with 925mb temps of near -1C and extreme lake induced instability and moisture from Lake Huron supporting a moderate to heavy band. Winds here also shift more WNW for a time Saturday afternoon/evening before going more NNW for a time Saturday night before going WNW again Sunday morning. Think the shifting winds and slightly warmer mid-level temps during the day Saturday will keep additional accums Saturday afternoon fairly light...maybe another inch in the higher terrain. Late Saturday night into Sunday morning as the winds become more steady again from the NW or WNW, there could be a period of some accums, again probably in eastern Erie/Crawford counties in NW PA perhaps into Chautauqua County NW and perhaps into parts of Venego/Forest/Warren Counties. Overall due to less persistent banding and more marginal temps here I think maybe 2-4" falls in the higher terrain. If a band persists for longer then maybe a local lolly to 6" is possible.

Nice write up, hope this is a start to a good LES season for all of us.

[josh_4184]

Snowing at a pretty good clip right now loving it!

 

[London snowsquall]

Nice write up, hope this is a start to a good LES season for all of us.

Thanks to OHweather for the LES writeup as well.   Last Buf WRF run I can find hits southern L Huron good with precip.  but will it be snow and where?   Marginal temps at this time of year.

[OHweather]

This is assuming a 10:1 ratio which is too high, but the 18z 4km is a little heavier downwind of Lakes Huron/Erie than the 12z. Looks like the heaviest snow is rather close to London.

 

[OHweather]

Thanks to OHweather for the LES writeup as well.   Last Buf WRF run I can find hits southern L Huron good with precip.  but will it be snow and where?   Marginal temps at this time of year.

I'm definitely interested in seeing if you (or places near you) can score with this event. Temps definitely rather marginal...but we've seen good bands easily overcome that before. I'd feel better about higher amounts if there was higher terrain immediately SE of Lake Huron than what there is, but we'll see if you can get by without it.

[London snowsquall]

I'm definitely interested in seeing if you (or places near you) can score with this event. Temps definitely rather marginal...but we've seen good bands easily overcome that before. I'd feel better about higher amounts if there was higher terrain immediately SE of Lake Huron than what there is, but we'll see if you can get by without it.

Mixed feelings about this one.   Lots of trees around are fully loaded with leaves, so any significant accumulation would definitely do some damage.   We had around 8" a few years ago but it was later in Oct. and even that one resulted in some major tree problems and some power outages.

[OHweather]

Mixed feelings about this one.   Lots of trees around are fully loaded with leaves, so any significant accumulation would definitely do some damage.   We had around 8" a few years ago but it was later in Oct. and even that one resulted in some major tree problems and some power outages.

Yeah, if 6"+ falls somewhere there will be a lot of tree damage.

[dta1984]

Good writeup as usual OHweather! I'm hoping for just fist flakes. Still leaves on the trees, so any accums can wait. Should be a good kickoff to the les season!

[Jonger]

The first time I have seen NWS Gaylord mention Lake Nipigon connection before. I thought that was pretty interesting.

I have actually gotten like Nipigon LES moisture a few years ago. It was a 800 mile band originating from the lake.

[CanadianGuy]

Mixed feelings about this one. Lots of trees around are fully loaded with leaves, so any significant accumulation would definitely do some damage. We had around 8" a few years ago but it was later in Oct. and even that one resulted in some major tree problems and some power outages.

I'm sharing similar concerns. I put the cars in the garage tonight in fear of large branches snapping off my front yard trees. The snow shovels are out and the snow blower is ready. I think northeast London will be a mess tomorrow. Stay safe.

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[OHweather]

I have actually gotten like Nipigon LES moisture a few years ago. It was a 800 mile band originating from the lake.

Those little lakes can make a difference...Lake St. Clair can help pre-seed Erie in a NW flow and result in locally heavier precip downwind of Lake Erie.

 

Getting a Lake Nipigon connection all the way in SE lower Michigan would be pretty cool...but it seems feasible...obviously having Lakes Superior and Michigan in between help a little bit. Probably doesn't happen much since Lake Nipigon probably freezes really early every year.

[London snowsquall]

I'm sharing similar concerns. I put the cars in the garage tonight in fear of large branches snapping off my front yard trees. The snow shovels are out and the snow blower is ready. I think northeast London will be a mess tomorrow. Stay safe.

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Tx.  Where are you at?  I'm  in Westmount in SW London

[CanadianGuy]

Tx. Where are you at? I'm in Westmount in SW London

Northridge near Fanshawe and Adelaide

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[BuffaloWeather]

Lake effect season is the best season for me. I've been completely spoiled the last 2 years here and expect a return to normal LES seasons where the predominant flow is NW. You never get good rates with NW winds though. W/SW can get the 3-5'+ per hour rates.

 

Awesome write-up OHweather, if only you lived 100 miles northeast of your current spot so I can read your writeups for LES off Erie on.

[London snowsquall]

Northridge near Fanshawe and Adelaide

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I went to HS at Lucas.  Very familiar with the area.   

[CanadianGuy]

Lake effect season is the best season for me. I've been completely spoiled the last 2 years here and expect a return to normal LES seasons where the predominant flow is NW. You never get good rates with NW winds though. W/SW can get the 3-5'+ per hour rates.

 

I had 3 inch per hour rates with NNW winds in December 2010 and November 2013. All it takes is a good setup. 

[London snowsquall]

Lake effect season is the best season for me. I've been completely spoiled the last 2 years here and expect a return to normal LES seasons where the predominant flow is NW. You never get good rates with NW winds though. W/SW can get the 3-5'+ per hour rates.

 

Awesome write-up OHweather, if only you lived 100 miles northeast of your current spot so I can read your writeups for LES off Erie on.

 

Buffalo definitely trumps London when the wind blows in the right direction, but we can hold our own.  Got 40+" overnight in Dec'77.  

[London snowsquall]

The area including the city now upgraded to a warning.   They are thinking the western parts of the county are in the prime areas, but predicting the exact areas of heaviest snow fall is notoriously difficult.

[weatherbo]

Snowed very lightly most of the day...nothing exciting. Maybe another inch or two later tonight as things seem to be on an uptick... already 29, so it could get a bit slick.

Hope things don't get destructive downwind of Huron, but enjoy the early season snow!

[BuffaloWeather]

Buffalo definitely trumps London when the wind blows in the right direction, but we can hold our own.  Got 40+" overnight in Dec'77.  

 

"One memorable storm hit the snowbelt southeast of Lake Huron around London, Ontario in late 1977. During the three-day period from December 7 to 9, lake-effect snow squalls, driven by 100 km/h (60 mph) winds, dropped over 100 cm (39 in) of snow on the region. The snowfall was accentuated by heavy blowing and drifting."

 

1977 was/is still the worst storm in WNY, even beats 2014.

[London snowsquall]

"One memorable storm hit the snowbelt southeast of Lake Huron around London, Ontario in late 1977. During the three-day period from December 7 to 9, lake-effect snow squalls, driven by 100 km/h (60 mph) winds, dropped over 100 cm (39 in) of snow on the region. The snowfall was accentuated by heavy blowing and drifting."

 

1977 was/is still the worst storm in WNY, even beats 2014.

 

Not sure where the quote came from........ An official  weather office recording station in N. London a 1/4 mile from where I lived at the time in London recorded 60" in a 5 day stretch in Dec'77, so we do have our moments.   

[Jonger]

Those little lakes can make a difference...Lake St. Clair can help pre-seed Erie in a NW flow and result in locally heavier precip downwind of Lake Erie.

 

Getting a Lake Nipigon connection all the way in SE lower Michigan would be pretty cool...but it seems feasible...obviously having Lakes Superior and Michigan in between help a little bit. Probably doesn't happen much since Lake Nipigon probably freezes really early every year.

 

I'm sure Lake Nipigon just provides the initial lift, but Superior and Lake Michigan provide 99% of the moisture that gets to me. This band actually was almost all the way to Bay City earlier.

 

The thing about Lake Nipigon, its influence ends almost by Dec 1st. It spends the next 5 months frozen over.