CT Rain Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 I don't hate the 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 I could see a few minor spin ups tomorrow. Didn't that event in Revere last year occur during a "cold-pool" storm type-of-day too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 30, 2015 Author Share Posted June 30, 2015 I don't hate the 18z NAM That area of warming up around 700mb could be a problem. Tomorrow is a tricky forecast...we may be able to bang out a few good storms but it could be difficult for storms to develop strong enough updrafts to really utilize the strong shear that will be in place. I could also see tomorrow being more eastern NY into southern VT and western MA rather than out this way. Pretty decent 0-1km helicity/shear though so certainly any storms need to be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 30, 2015 Author Share Posted June 30, 2015 Another thing I don't like too is if you look at the 500mb vorticity map (18z GFS for example) and loop it or scroll 3-HR by 3-HR you can see how the s/w digs then it begins to lift NE...not very good for us here in SNE...that will eventually lead to some weakening shear and and also rising heights and perhaps even some slight warming aloft (which models indicate) b/c it allows for a mid-level warm front to pump north. We also get reduced lift and forcing. I drew (or attempted to) what I mean with arrows...the black arrows is what's happening and the blue arrows indicate what would be more beneficial I'm not writing tomorrow off at all...I think we will see some isolated t'storms with potential for strong/severe but don't think we see anything much bigger than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 Another thing I don't like too is if you look at the 500mb vorticity map (18z GFS for example) and loop it or scroll 3-HR by 3-HR you can see how the s/w digs then it begins to lift NE...not very good for us here in SNE...that will eventually lead to some weakening shear and and also rising heights and perhaps even some slight warming aloft (which models indicate) b/c it allows for a mid-level warm front to pump north. We also get reduced lift and forcing. I drew (or attempted to) what I mean with arrows...the black arrows is what's happening and the blue arrows indicate what would be more beneficial I'm not writing tomorrow off at all...I think we will see some isolated t'storms with potential for strong/severe but don't think we see anything much bigger than that Yeah, I mean it's not a widespread deal. What will be widespread is probably shower activity in addition to the storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 30, 2015 Author Share Posted June 30, 2015 Yeah, I mean it's not a widespread deal. What will be widespread is probably shower activity in addition to the storms. It will be fun lookin at velocity tomorrow lol...should see some good winds aloft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 Might want to watch the Boston suburbs tomorrow morning if some surface based instability can develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 1, 2015 Author Share Posted July 1, 2015 We won't get crap and it pisses me off. What pisses me off more is I know several people who live out west and invite me out to storm chase but I can't...and it's b/c of stupid money and having bills and it sucks...only b/c I get myself into these **** jobs that pay **** and 9/10 of what I make goes into bills. I mean I'm never going to get myself into a better position...ever...even once I finish school and get my degree I'll be like 30...WTF good is that? I can't go ahead and do what I wanted...go for masters and doctorate b/c I'll be too old. Plus I always get severe stuff wrong anyways so it doesn't even matter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 Might want to watch the Boston suburbs tomorrow morning if some surface based instability can develop. Sneaky sneaky. Revere II: The Revenge on Rumney Marsh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 Wiz, chill. Someday you will make plenty of dough and will be chasing all the time I think Weds will be boomy for some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 Wiz, chill. Someday you will make plenty of dough and will be chasing all the time I think Weds will be boomy for some I tend to think of storm chasing as a pretty cost effective vacation. Get yourself out there and the cost of living is pretty cheap. If you're willing to be flexible on hotels you can get good prices. And you definitely aren't eating three meals a day, and if you do one of them almost certainly is from a gas station. Get a few friends to split room/gas and it starts looking like a steal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 Sneaky sneaky. Revere II: The Revenge on Rumney Marsh? Indeed. The NAM is chucking some tomorrow afternoon too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 I tend to think of storm chasing as a pretty cost effective vacation. Get yourself out there and the cost of living is pretty cheap. If you're willing to be flexible on hotels you can get good prices. And you definitely aren't eating three meals a day, and if you do one of them almost certainly is from a gas station. Get a few friends to split room/gas and it starts looking like a steal. Yeah I went out with a buddy a couple years ago and it wasn't bad at all. Lots and lots of beer was consumed in the high plains as we sat under a ridge for days and days though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 1, 2015 Author Share Posted July 1, 2015 Wiz, chill. Someday you will make plenty of dough and will be chasing all the time I think Weds will be boomy for some IDK...like tomorrow...it's just another, "if this, if that"....blah blah blah...that'show it always is here...out west they have their questions but nothing like we do. And for tomorrow...it's only interesting b/c of the shear involved...and sometimes they produce and sometimes they don't...and why is that? Is it instability or lack of or is it other aspects? It's just not fun anymore and I've realized it's such a waste of time...I mean I've devoted so much energy into New England severe weather...I mean LOL...there is a reason why not many others have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 Indeed. The NAM is chucking some tomorrow afternoon too. 21z SREF now popping a weenie 15% contour on the sig. tornado ingredients product. Right on the MA/NH border near LWM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 IDK...like tomorrow...it's just another, "if this, if that"....blah blah blah...that'show it always is here...out west they have their questions but nothing like we do. And for tomorrow...it's only interesting b/c of the shear involved...and sometimes they produce and sometimes they don't...and why is that? Is it instability or lack of or is it other aspects? It's just not fun anymore and I've realized it's such a waste of time...I mean I've devoted so much energy into New England severe weather...I mean LOL...there is a reason why not many others have. Look at it this way, if you can forecast severe in New England, you can do it anywhere. This may be one of if not the most difficult region to forecast it in. Sure OUN gets gorgeous supercell, but they're easy to warn on. They don't get the "WTF just happened in Revere" type tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 I still think tomorrow has some interesting aspects to it. The morning stuff as already mentioned with the s/w, shear, and elevated instability. Maybe if that can move out, aftn stuff in wrn areas? Might fight dry air though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 I still think tomorrow has some interesting aspects to it. The morning stuff as already mentioned with the s/w, shear, and elevated instability. Maybe if that can move out, aftn stuff in wrn areas? Might fight dry air though. That morning warm front passage is interesting. Probably not much surface based instability - but if there is that's got some sunrise surprise spinner potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 1, 2015 Author Share Posted July 1, 2015 Look at it this way, if you can forecast severe in New England, you can do it anywhere. This may be one of if not the most difficult region to forecast it in. Sure OUN gets gorgeous supercell, but they're easy to warn on. They don't get the "WTF just happened in Revere" type tornadoes. I suppose that's true. I mean in a way a part of me loves having that mystery aspect of it. When I was growing up and once I really got into models and weather data all I wanted to was understand and learn about those borderline situations and research them...like why one event panned out and why another event which was similar didn't but maybe it just can't be done. With at least New England there are just may too many microscale and mesoscale factors that are involved and I thi ooften times they play more of a factor than large scale phenomenon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 1, 2015 Author Share Posted July 1, 2015 That morning warm front passage is interesting. Probably not much surface based instability - but if there is that's got some sunrise surprise spinner potential. These are setups which usually are highly intriguing across LIS and the NYC burrows..wonder if that can happen a few hundred miles north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 These are setups which usually are highly intriguing across LIS and the NYC burrows..wonder if that can happen a few hundred miles north. Long Island is known for their sunrise surprises Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 1, 2015 Author Share Posted July 1, 2015 Long Island is known for their sunrise surprises Yes they are. I've always wondered why and I think it literally has to do with warm frontal positioning..typically at that time of day the front is usually right in that general vicinity...and I feel like b/c of the sound the sfc warm front slows down but the mid level front keeps advancing so you end up with a decent amount of elevated instability and the lift is strong enough to lift parcels above the BL so they can utilize the shear/instability but b/c the sfc based instability is nada you get weak spinups Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 That's also a climatological time of day where the LLJ is peaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 1, 2015 Author Share Posted July 1, 2015 That's also a climatological time of day where the LLJ is peaking. That leads to another question I've always had...with that scenario you obviously have tremendous 0-1km shear/helicity but maybe 0-3km isn't all that impressive. So when it comes to these weak spin-ups or brief spin-ups what's more important...0-1km or 0-3? or are they equal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 That's also a climatological time of day where the LLJ is peaking. Plus warm fronts like to hang out around Long Island at daybreak. That's a climatologically favored location for 12z warm front locations. Coupled with warm SSTs off the sand bar to help keep dew points up there that's a good recipe for spinners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 Well I always thought 0-1KM helicity really told you if we had good low level shear, however you usually look at 0-3KM CAPE to diagnose instability in the lower levels for those quick spinners. Obviously 0-3KM shear is important too. You want winds to continue to veer and increase a bit with height. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 Plus warm fronts like to hang out around Long Island at daybreak. That's a climatologically favored location for 12z warm front locations. Coupled with warm SSTs off the sand bar to help keep dew points up there that's a good recipe for spinners. Yeah true. Sandbar Sunrise Surprises for Ryan, The Sultan of Spinners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 1, 2015 Author Share Posted July 1, 2015 Well I always thought 0-1KM helicity really told you if we had good low level shear, however you usually look at 0-3KM CAPE to diagnose instability in the lower levels for those quick spinners. Obviously 0-3KM shear is important too. You want winds to continue to veer and increase a bit with height. thanks...this is perfect. 0-3km Cape is important and that is something I don't think I paid attention too this summer. I remember beginning to focus on it much more a few years back when Ryan mentioned it in a blog post. I guess as far as tomorrow is concerned just have to wake up and evaluate things then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 Well I always thought 0-1KM helicity really told you if we had good low level shear, however you usually look at 0-3KM CAPE to diagnose instability in the lower levels for those quick spinners. Obviously 0-3KM shear is important too. You want winds to continue to veer and increase a bit with height. A boundary, 0-1 km helicity, and 0-3 km CAPE are usually a pretty good combo to spin something from the ground up. 0-3 km shear and you're starting to get into a deeper meso, and a more "legit" tornado environment. I think of the waterspouts on Winnipesaukee the last few years. Those are mainly lake breeze induced deals, and those circulations don't extend much beyond 1 km above the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 Plus warm fronts like to hang out around Long Island at daybreak. That's a climatologically favored location for 12z warm front locations. Coupled with warm SSTs off the sand bar to help keep dew points up there that's a good recipe for spinners. Yeah, diurnally speaking that would be a great place for a warm front to hang out overnight. Once the sun comes up, it's easier for the warm front to make the jump into SNE as heating takes place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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