Brian5671 Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Looks like the 12z 4k NAM will end up being close to correct as storms are intensifying over NW NJ and should come southeast nailing a lot of this area. Doesn't look that impressive on radar, garden variety showers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 CPC included our area in the hazard outlook for heavy rain over the next 3-7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Doesn't look that impressive on radar, garden variety showers I'm sorry, were you looking for a severe thunderstorm? My posts are regarding heavy rain only. It doesn't take a genius to see the flash flooding potential today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 you can't use another station's normals as your own How else would you determine departures for your station if the reporting period of said station isn't long enough? The Freehold/Marlboro station is within 3-4 miles of my location. By and large, the normals will be extremely similar. There would only be minor differences due to radiational cooling microclimates potentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Colts Neck sit in between the 2 . Can`t average the 2 ? " fill in " ? to borrow a phrase . Agree. For all intents and purposes, the averages of Colts Neck equal the averages of Freehold (neighboring towns), barring very minor radiational cooling differences as I noted in my latest post. The landscape/land use is essentially the same, so there are not major differences radiational cooling wise either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Doesn't look that impressive on radar, garden variety showers SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1223 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 NJZ001-007-008-PAZ055-161715- MORRIS-SUSSEX-WARREN-MONROE- 1223 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 ...A STRENGTHENING THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN WARREN... NORTHEASTERN MORRIS...SUSSEX AND EASTERN MONROE COUNTIES... AT 1221 PM EDT...A STRENGTHENING THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER FLATBROOKVILLE...OR 9 MILES WEST OF NEWTON...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF AROUND HALF AN INCH WITHIN AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. THIS STORM SHOULD INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. THERE ARE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING IN WESTERN MONROE COUNTY. LAT...LON 4122 7439 4118 7439 4109 7450 4107 7449 4104 7450 4105 7445 4102 7443 4103 7442 4101 7438 4094 7437 4099 7502 4109 7504 4109 7500 4112 7495 4121 7487 4128 7452 TIME...MOT...LOC 1621Z 262DEG 40KT 4110 7493 $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 I'm sorry, were you looking for a severe thunderstorm? My posts are regarding heavy rain only. It doesn't take a genius to see the flash flooding potential today. even that looks meh-it's moving quickly east and it's 25 dbz....like I said, garden variety yawn - edit-maybe that batch up by BGM gets us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Agree. For all intents and purposes, the averages of Colts Neck equal the averages of Freehold (neighboring towns), barring very minor radiational cooling differences as I noted in my latest post. The landscape/land use is essentially the same, so there are not major differences radiational cooling wise either. Freehold COOP current month to date temperature departure: Average 78.8 56.9 68.2 -2.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 even that looks meh-it's moving quickly east and it's 25 dbz....yawn Even at that radar estimates are 0.50"+ per hour. PWAT's are >2". Use your head. I really don't care what the radar looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Can you please provide a link to show where you're getting this information from? Most sites are still running at least -1 to -0.5 and the upcoming pattern doesn't look above normal temperature wise. The pattern looks close to average for the rest of June which would allow the monthly departure to stay close to where it is now, slightly negative. Trenton is 1.4 above....I will check New Brunswick and report back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 HRRR and RAP now both show an intensification of the line of rain/storms over NYC and the coast. Cave to the Rgem. This is between 3pm and 6pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 16, 2015 Author Share Posted June 16, 2015 Light rain here in bayside queens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 HRRR and RAP now both show an intensification of the line of rain/storms over NYC and the coast. Cave to the Rgem. This is between 3pm and 6pm. The Euro has the heaviest rains well NW of NYC today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 The Euro has the heaviest rains well NW of NYC today. Well one model is going to seriously bust then. RGEM is not usually wrong at this range so will be interesting. 1st batch fell apart pretty quickly as it hit the marine air, so betting the euro is the one on the money here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 The Euro brings the core of the remnants of TS Bill directly over the area on Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 The Euro brings the core of the remnants of TS Bill directly over the area on Sunday morning. fast mover or slow? How much rain does it dump? (I'm going to be in OC NJ so hoping it stays north of there) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Warm Front just blew through the beach here in point pleasant. Suns out, air you can wear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 16, 2015 Author Share Posted June 16, 2015 Mod rain here.in Astoria queens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 16, 2015 Author Share Posted June 16, 2015 Suns out In full force here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 fast mover or slow? How much rain does it dump? (I'm going to be in OC NJ so hoping it stays north of there) 2-3" of rain. In and out in roughly 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 secondary line racing southeast, but looks to be fast moving and in and out of here. Hard to see how these big rain totals are going to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Light rain here, I hope that big blob of rain remains to the west. The sun has been fighting to come out all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 secondary line racing southeast, but looks to be fast moving and in and out of here. Hard to see how these big rain totals are going to happen What model showed big rain totals today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Nasty muggy I'm manhattan. And yeah I like that air you can wear!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Had a light shower about an hour ago...very warm to my sw but just 75 here and rising quickly now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 16, 2015 Author Share Posted June 16, 2015 Warm front passing through right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 What model showed big rain totals today? HRRR and RGEM had some nice totals. Most places won't get more than .25-.50 You are also on record saying flooding was a threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 16, 2015 Author Share Posted June 16, 2015 Temps up 78 in 30 min from 70. Hope this gets the atmosphere ripe for tstorms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Garden variety fast movers...shower for most and we'll see a nice sunset tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Plenty of juice out there in the city right now. Cape must be sky rocketing. I expect things to go boom in the next hour or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.