Severe storms 2015 general chatter

[Eskimo Joe]

All of the good activity is in an area that has downdraft CAPE AOA 900 j/kg.

[yoda]

So... anything on the horizon from NW flow?  I believe when we have hot and humid days like the ones coming up that we can sometimes get some MCS/complexes to roll on through our CWA

[Kmlwx]

So... anything on the horizon from NW flow?  I believe when we have hot and humid days like the ones coming up that we can sometimes get some MCS/complexes to roll on through our CWA

I'm going to rank this season so far a 2/10 for MBY. 

[mattie g]

I'm going to rank this season so far a 2/10 for MBY. 

 

My cat's breath smells like cat food.

[yoda]

Maybe a isolated svr storm on Friday evening... and Sat looks meh

[Kmlwx]

Welp at least we get a 5% for Saturday. Better than nothing I suppose. Plus we've had some good isolated 5% days if you can get under a good storm as it pulses up. 

[yoda]

Welp at least we get a 5% for Saturday. Better than nothing I suppose. Plus we've had some good isolated 5% days if you can get under a good storm as it pulses up. 

 

Its like a weak 5%... a less than meh one

[Kmlwx]

Its like a weak 5%... a less than meh one

 

This is so lame. If it's going to be hot and humid we might as well use the fuel for something. 

[Ian]

This area sucks in all seasons. Well, fall is good except you know winter is coming.

[yoda]

Monday afternoon/evening maybe... 12z GFS soundings were at least meh-worthy

[StudentOfClimatology]

Lol @ 18z GFS day 6/7. If only that -NAO/EML plume had ensemble support..

[AvantHiatus]

Lol @ 18z GFS day 7. If only that -NAO/EML plume had ensemble support..

Dat GOM TC.

[AvantHiatus]

This area sucks in all seasons. Well, fall is good except you know winter is coming.

More or less quanity vs quality and more potential in the climate casino. Some areas excel only in 1 season and fail harder than we do in all the rest. Southern Cities like Atlanta come to mind. If you think Atlanta > DC then I don't know what to say lol.

[yoda]

Sunday afternoon maybe?

 

 

[yoda]

And Monday?

 

[yoda]

06z hi-res NAM shows a pretty good line of storms moving through the DC region at 21z SUN

[Kmlwx]

DT posting about Euro showing an MCC midweek. 

[Ian]

Tuesday actually looks like a better setup than tomorrow or Monday but maybe questionable how far south storms fire.

[Kmlwx]

Tuesday actually looks like a better setup than tomorrow or Monday but maybe questionable how far south storms fire.

I guess at the very least we have a shot at at least garden variety thunderstorms a couple days in a row. 

[yoda]

18z HI-RES NAM shows what looks to be a very intense cell (sup?) in the region around 5pm tomorrow afternoon

[yoda]

2/5/5 (15 wind just off to our N and W)

 

 

[yoda]

[Kmlwx]

Day 3 risk as well. 

[yoda]

1630 OTLK from SPC adds all of LWX CWA in SLGT risk, mainly for wind

[Kmlwx]

06z GFS in the longer range takes a sub 1000 low into the lakes and has a lot of precip around us. 

[Kmlwx]

Yoda is already looking ahead

[Kmlwx]

I am too. Seeing hail today for the first time in years only energized the weenie in me. 

Tuesday looks okay - focused north but we could get something. Going to be a hot day with downsloping it looks like. 

[AmericanWxFreak]

Tuesday looks okay - focused north but we could get something. Going to be a hot day with downsloping it looks like.

Anything later in the week/weekend?

[Kmlwx]

Anything later in the week/weekend?

Didn't really look beyond Tuesday. I feel like our boring stretch has at least been broken. Tonight was exciting. 

[AmericanWxFreak]

Didn't really look beyond Tuesday. I feel like our boring stretch has at least been broken. Tonight was exciting.

I'm out of town so my boring streak is still alive and well. Hoping there will be another round before the pattern breaks. I land at Dulles at 430 Tuesday so maybe I can get in before the possible storms.