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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

wxmx

By wxmx,
in Central/Western States

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NTXYankee

NTXYankee

Posted
Posted

Wild! One thing I noticed this week while out on a trail run was how saturated the ground still is, like a sponge in many places. Also, many of the area surface ponds and small lakes are full to the rim! There will be almost 100% runoff from this event... 

 

CUm2DjGUkAAMFT-.jpg

I am surprised FWD has not issued a flood watch yet and also made no mention of one this morning. Flooding will be a huge concern with this event.

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Jebman

Jebman

Posted
Posted

Wild! One thing I noticed this week while out on a trail run was how saturated the ground still is, like a sponge in many places. Also, many of the area surface ponds and small lakes are full to the rim! There will be almost 100% runoff from this event... 

 

CUm2DjGUkAAMFT-.jpg

Austin should be fine. It's Dallas that might get 8 inches. Austin wont see that kind of event again for at least another half century. So, its back to water conservation here in south Texas.........

 

1230pm - Rain is developing, well to our west, lol. That usually means Buda and Austin end up with extremely light amounts of rain throughout the "event". We will need a scanning electron microscope in order to use a focused beam of electrons to find out how much rain we might get in my rain bucket by Tuesday.

Business as usual in south central Texas.

 

Another thing I noticed: KEWX AFD mentions a "STOUT LOW LEVEL JET (LLJ)" developing.

Texas is the only place on earth where you can have a stout LLJ in place, near record low level moisture for late November, and end up with so little rainfall! To get a decent Virginia-style isentropic ascent event over say, 18 hours with about an inch and a half of rain, not only do the planets have to line up precisely, but also all of the galaxies in our Local Group geeze! I mean in northern VA, we think NOTHING of a one inch rainfall isentropic ascent event! We'll get many of those in the strong Nino there. But here, in the developing Central Texas Desert, a strong Nino means little. The dry goes on and we really need to conserve every drop of precious water.

 

DRY is our middle name in Buda.

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Chinook

Chinook

Posted
Posted

From NWS Fort Worth

on this day in 1993: Freezing rain and sleet fell during a subfreezing afternoon, amounting to 0.3 inches on the ground at DFW Airport. This was the first time that wintry precipitation was ever recorded on Thanksgiving in Dallas/Fort Worth, impacting the annual Thanksgiving Day Dallas Cowboys football game (vs. Miami Dolphins) at Texas Stadium.

 

I think I remember watching this at Grandma's house, after watching the Lions. It seemed odd that Dallas would have winter weather.

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Jebman

Jebman

Posted
Posted

This Nino has been hyped a lot, people all over the net calling it the super Nino, exactly like 97-98

 

This Nino IS strong, but it is NOT exactly like the supernino we had in 97-98. It may already be starting to weaken.

 

Meanwhile, in other news, rain is breaking out, well north of Buda.

This is to be expected. Most of the forcing with this entire event will be well north of Buda.

I will be highly fortunate to be able to measure a quarter of an inch in my rain barrel here in Buda by Tuesday morning, and even that's really pushing it over the cliff.

 

I'll see a few spritzes of rain come late Friday night and early Saturday morning.

Dallas will get most of the rain, some communities in and around Dallas will receive as much as 8 inches of rain.

Stay away from the Trinity River - it wont take much to flood it.

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raindancewx

raindancewx

Posted
Posted

It's fascinating how different my forecast for the next few days is from various vendors:

 

Weather.com --> no snow in Albuquerque. 0-20% rain Thursday-Fri

Accuweather.com --> showers, Thursday, rain/light snow of 1-2 inches Fri-Sat

weathertrends360 --> 0.27" on Friday, rain mixed with snow, snow won't accumulate

NWS - some rain Th-Sat, upto an inch of snow mixed in at times

 

 

image_full5.gif

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Jebman

Jebman

Posted
Posted

It's fascinating how different my forecast for the next few days is from various vendors:

 

Weather.com --> no snow in Albuquerque. 0-20% rain Thursday-Fri

Accuweather.com --> showers, Thursday, rain/light snow of 1-2 inches Fri-Sat

weathertrends360 --> 0.27" on Friday, rain mixed with snow, snow won't accumulate

NWS - some rain Th-Sat, upto an inch of snow mixed in at times

 

 

image_full5.gif

Hope you get some snow, raindance. There's nothing like a White Thanksgiving.

 

Meanwhile in other news, Moon is out in central Texas with just a few high clouds.

 

There's going to be strong forcing over Dallas so they should hit 6 inches of rain without breaking a sweat, lol.

Wish to God I could go on a Rain Chase up there! North Texans should not be overly worried about flooding. You've had time to dry out some, and you should only have modest rises on major rivers. Nothing to really get worked up about, just a nice rainy Thanksgiving.

 

Happy Thanksgiving!

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Quixotic1

Quixotic1

Posted
Posted

From NWS Fort Worth

on this day in 1993: Freezing rain and sleet fell during a subfreezing afternoon, amounting to 0.3 inches on the ground at DFW Airport. This was the first time that wintry precipitation was ever recorded on Thanksgiving in Dallas/Fort Worth, impacting the annual Thanksgiving Day Dallas Cowboys football game (vs. Miami Dolphins) at Texas Stadium.

I think I remember watching this at Grandma's house, after watching the Lions. It seemed odd that Dallas would have winter weather.

Never forget it.

I got tossed out of Thanksgiving dinner when I punched a hole in the wall after Leon Lett slid into the blocked field goal and gave Miami another shot. Young and dumb. 0.3" doesn't seem to do the event justice.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

Dunno if y'all have seen this... but it's pretty funny

 

National Weather Service's Fort Worth Office Responds to Viral Social Media Snow Forecast: "Simply Garbage"

http://www.weather.com/storms/winter/news/nws-fort-worth-snow-forecast-response

 

PW5nCFK.jpg

 

This was a great graphic to go along with that:

 

CUq7WVrUwAIalA4.jpg

 

Oh, and if anyone is still looking, the NAMs are still throwing out crazy totals! :lol:

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Jebman

Jebman

Posted
Posted

Not only is DFW where the strong forcing is, it is also where the convergence is, I would not be surprised to find that some of those communities already have 2-3 inches of fresh rain, with MUCH, MUCH more heavy rain on the way for the next few DAYS.

 

Meanwhile, Buda is in the screw zone yet again LMAO!

 

We are breaking records because we actually managed to pick up A WHOLE TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN !!!!!!!

Thats hard to believe, usually, we get no rain at all. Our totals will be a quarter of an inch. The rest of the state will get 6 to 11 inches, Dallas will get a foot of new rain by Tuesday morning.

Buda and Austin are afflicted with the Klingon Anti Rain Shield.

 

Per KEWX AFD:

 

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION HAVE VCSH PREVAILING THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUING TO STREAM NORTHWARD. DUE TO THE HIT OR
MISS NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION HAVE NOT GONE WITH PREVAILING
-RA...BUT WILL MONITOR AND AMEND TAFS AS NEEDED IF MORE ORGANIZED
RAINFALL DEVELOPS.

 

Even the professional meteorologists are saying there is doubt about organized rainfall in our region.

There you go - I am screwed AGAIN! YOU KNOW THIS IS BAD when even the pros are afraid to designate -RA.

 

Gotta love these splash and dash showers. Each of them dumps a ten thousandth of an inch. Hey, maybe I will see a thousand of them in the next few days and get another tenth of an inch of rain LMAO. Fook my math - however you add it up (if there was ever enough rain to add up) - I will be screwed. I will receive a tiny FRACTION of what is forecast.

 

I am really enjoying my ARID Thanksgiving.

 

Man, I must be cursed.

 

Latest AFD is depressing, I need another hobby besides enjoying rain. Buda is in between two weather features and will remain so throughout the event. The TL;DR of this is for Buda this will be a passing shower event through Sunday. Then back to dry and cool. Total rain for us will be a quarter of an inch. LOL, Buda is too far south for good rains.

 

I am starting to learn that a heavy amount of skepticism about rain in this region of Texas is warranted because this is after all the Southwest, where you find drier climates. Austin/Buda is obviously in a part of the state which routinely gets missed by most moisture streams. This is business as usual for Austin, I can see now that Dallas can get crushing rain amounts while we have cloudy dry weather, and that this is status quo for the Austin/Buda Corridor about 99 percent of the time. Today is no different. The May rain and the October rains are definitely NOT typical features here. Being dry IS normal here, and rainfall is strictly the exception. I can hardly wait to get out of this godforsaken state and back to Washington DC where I rightfully belong for eternity. I feel at home in cold Washingtonian rainfall, and I feel at home on Capitol Hill. I felt frightfully intimidated from the moment I landed at ABIA on April 29.

 

I am NO Texan - I rightfully BELONG in Washington DC.

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Electric Lizard

Electric Lizard

Posted
Posted

Front, like almost all Arctic front do, is racing ahead of any forecast model. The NAM usually handles these decently, but it is laughably slow with the front. The GFS is not too bad so far. Front is at Terrell and almost into Waco now.

It passed through Temple between 9:00 and 10:00 and through Hearn between noon and 12:15 - a distance of about 45 miles or about 15-20mph.  If this keeps up, it'll pass Easterwood about 1:30 and IAH by 6:00.

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raindancewx

raindancewx

Posted
Posted

Bastardi & the CFS have New Mexico pretty cold in December. Will be interesting to see if that verifies. We tend to get a lot of snow in December if the AMO is positive in an El Nino year throughout Nov-Apr, probably because of where storms exit the West. December is usually coldest here when snow actually lasts more than a day or so. I was kind of expecting this November to be cold for New Mexico but we've been at the bottom or east of the Western trough most of the time this month so it's been average to slightly cold or warm depending on where you are in the state.

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