Morch Madness Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 NAM is definitely better, more amped despite a similar low track. Another 25 miles north and PHL gets crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Changes are small but in our favor. Nam shows snow moving in around 1am Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 very nice trend by the NAM, it's still snowing at HR 36 and the snow map already looks good just on 10:1, but with thinking ratio's will be more like 12:1. I don't like relying on 15:1 ratios as they very rarely happen here. will post the 10:1 map after the next frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 NAM snow map based on 10:1, as someone mentioned above, 25-50 miles N and this is similar to the Euro's solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 very nice trend by the NAM, it's still snowing at HR 36 and the snow map already looks good just on 10:1, but with thinking ratio's will be more like 12:1. I don't like relying on 15:1 ratios as they very rarely happen here. will post the 10:1 map after the next frame. The temps will be in the mid to upper teens while it's snowing right? Shouldn't that be at least 12:1? Especially since a lot of the snow will be falling overnight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The temps will be in the mid to upper teens while it's snowing right? Shouldn't that be at least 12:1? Especially since a lot of the snow will be falling overnight... cold temps do not equal high ratios. the surface temps have nothing to do with snow growth. if the upper levels are too cold, then you get crappy snow growth and sand like snow that is lucky to get 10:1 on the ratios. I haven't taken a look at those levels but they didn't look overwhelmingly cold earlier. Also I remember reading somewhere(maybe here?) about how rare it is to get over 15:1 ratios in the philly area. it's a rare event. But I believe you want the upper levels to be -10 to -12C? A met would be able to give a definitive answer, I just know that cold doesn't automatically mean high ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 cold temps do not equal high ratios. the surface temps have nothing to do with snow growth. if the upper levels are too cold, then you get crappy snow growth and sand like snow that is lucky to get 10:1 on the ratios. I haven't taken a look at those levels but they didn't look overwhelmingly cold earlier. Also I remember reading somewhere(maybe here?) about how rare it is to get over 15:1 ratios in the philly area. it's a rare event. But I believe you want the upper levels to be -10 to -12C? A met would be able to give a definitive answer, I just know that cold doesn't automatically mean high ratios. This is the sounding at hr 33 at PHL, when precip is heaviest. I haven't read much about ratios, but I believe you want a saturated isothermal column between the surface and 700 mb, which this pretty much is. Maybe Ray can provide a better interpretation for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSchwake28 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 This is the sounding at hr 33 at PHL, when precip is heaviest. I haven't read much about ratios, but I believe you want a saturated isothermal column between the surface and 700 mb, which this pretty much is. Maybe Ray can provide a better interpretation for us. Ideally you'd want the best omega (lift/vertical velocities) to coincide with temperatures between -12 and -18C. This sounding is fairly isothermal through about 600mb which would be good if it were isothermal along ~-15C but this case looks just a little warm for ideal snow growth, but even so 10:1 - 12:1 ratios should be attainable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Ideally you'd want the best omega (lift/vertical velocities) to coincide with temperatures between -12 and -18C. This sounding is fairly isothermal through about 600mb which would be good if it were isothermal along ~-15C but this case looks just a little warm for ideal snow growth, but even so 10:1 - 12:1 ratios should be attainable. Thanks for your input. NYC weenies are getting excited about 20:1 ratios being printed out by some models, which really just isn't feasible on the coastal plain. I'm hoping for 12 or 13:1 ratios here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 Ideally you'd want the best omega (lift/vertical velocities) to coincide with temperatures between -12 and -18C. This sounding is fairly isothermal through about 600mb which would be good if it were isothermal along ~-15C but this case looks just a little warm for ideal snow growth, but even so 10:1 - 12:1 ratios should be attainable. Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I trust the RGEM 10000000000000000000000000x more than the NAM, the NAM @ this range likes to have runs like this where it gets wet...the RGEM came in a touch drier...My call for Philly is 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 Thanks for your input. NYC weenies are getting excited about 20:1 ratios being printed out by some models, which really just isn't feasible on the coastal plain. I'm hoping for 12 or 13:1 ratios here. I saw the SREF snow plumes are jacking out some really high ratios, but I wouldn't trust those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I trust the RGEM 10000000000000000000000000x more than the NAM, the NAM @ this range likes to have runs like this where it gets wet...the RGEM came in a touch drier...My call for Philly is 1-2" RGEM hasn't exactly had the hot hand of late. Wanted to give Boston next to nothing today and they ended up with 16.2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 RGEM hasn't exactly had the hot hand of late. Wanted to give Boston next to nothing today and they ended up with 16.2". yes and no it was pretty good around se pa and jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I trust the RGEM 10000000000000000000000000x more than the NAM, the NAM @ this range likes to have runs like this where it gets wet...the RGEM came in a touch drier...My call for Philly is 1-2" seems a little low 2-4 maybe, but pretty much all guidance is giving PHL at least a few inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 RGEM hasn't exactly had the hot hand of late. Wanted to give Boston next to nothing today and they ended up with 16.2". It has not been as good this winter as last year but I'll trust it any day over the nam of GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 i'll take the Euro with a miller A inside 48 hrs over any model. it typically handles miller A's the best inside 72 HRs, i'd be surprised if it caves again, even though it has struggled this winter. this is a different type of system from what we've seen this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 seems a little low 2-4 maybe, but pretty much all guidance is giving PHL at least a few inches ya the RGEM gives philly 2 inches on a 10:1 scale. 2-4 would be more reasonable and still I think a worst case scenario for the area at this point. I'd be shocked if philly doesn't see 2 inches out of this at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 ya the RGEM gives philly 2 inches on a 10:1 scale. 2-4 would be more reasonable and still I think a worst case scenario for the area at this point. I'd be shocked if philly doesn't see 2 inches out of this at this point. IMO this will definitely be the biggest storm of the year for Philly. I will take Euro/GFS/NAM over RGEM any day of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 IMO this will definitely be the biggest storm of the year for Philly. I will take Euro/GFS/NAM over RGEM any day of the week. i actually like the RGEM, but if it is the lowest of all models at 2 inches, it seems overly conservative to call for 1-2 a this point. time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I trust the RGEM 10000000000000000000000000x more than the NAM, the NAM @ this range likes to have runs like this where it gets wet...the RGEM came in a touch drier...My call for Philly is 1-2" This is a Miller A dawg. Setting a ceiling of 2" in Philly is cray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 IMO this will definitely be the biggest storm of the year for Philly. I will take Euro/GFS/NAM over RGEM any day of the week. Since PHL's biggest is only 1.5, it won't be hard for this to be the biggest. RGEM's 0.20" QPF is at least 2" and everything else is higher than that. I would be surprised if they don't break 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 This is a Miller A dawg. Setting a ceiling of 2" in Philly is cray. Isn't this a SWFE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 gfs looks 2-4ish..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 gfs looks 2-4ish..... low takes the same track as 18z, just drier... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 GFS snowmap based on 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 GFS QPF MPO 0.11 ABE 0.16 RDG 0.13 TTN 0.21 PHL 0.24 ILG 0.23 ACY 0.36 GED 0.56 NAM QPF MPO 0.11 ABE 0.17 RDG 0.22 TTN 0.31 PHL 0.41 ILG 0.43 ACY 0.63 GED 0.84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Isn't this a SWFE? Does that stand for south west flow event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 GFS QPF MPO 0.11 ABE 0.16 RDG 0.13 TTN 0.21 PHL 0.24 ILG 0.23 ACY 0.36 GED 0.56 NAM QPF MPO 0.11 ABE 0.17 RDG 0.22 TTN 0.31 PHL 0.41 ILG 0.43 ACY 0.63 GED 0.84 yeah i think 2-4 solid forecast given what we have seen now let's see the euro in a bit. if euro comes in drier most of the area N of ACY probably ends up with advisory level snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 i'm going with 3-6 for philly and burbs,1-3 for NW burbs, 4-8 for s jersey.. huge euro run tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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