jm1220 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 OT but snow has been mixing in with the rain here in Austin this morning under the ULL. Some of the Hill Country has been seeing snow falling at a decent clip. No accumulation in town obviously but cool to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 Right off the bat heights are higher over the southeast and the trough is more amped up already. 12z GFS initialization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Right off the bat heights are higher over the southeast and the trough is more amped up already. 12z GFS initialization. This storm is making it apparent that it is coming closer to coast, but obviously that brings in more pecip issues for the coast and city... hopefully the snow begins earlier than thought and comes down heavy for an extended period of time to hold off the warmer push of air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Man is the RGEM far south with mixed precip at 12Z...I've seen it show that orange a few times this year and it had verified as snow...its snow accumulations would seem to suggest its seeing that orange as snow as well, it shows as much as 8 inches near NYC although some of that could be adding the late part of the system...the first image is the 36 hour forecast from the 00Z run and the 2nd this morning's 12Z...notice how the mix line is fairly far souh into CNJ, even at the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 hr 15 1008mb surface low over the SC/GA border. Moisture up to TTN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 The trailing northern stream energy is weaker. Should end up pretty tucked into the mid-atlantic coast. You can already see that it's going to be warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 1-3" on the front end, interior then flips to ZR/IP while the coast flips to plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 996 about 50 miles SE of ACY, just about everyone over to plain rain. Not much CCB development. At least it's trying to close off the mid-level centers as it passes our lattitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Man is the RGEM far south with mixed precip at 12Z...I've seen it show that orange a few times this year and it had verified as snow...its snow accumulations would seem to suggest its seeing that orange as snow as well, it shows as much as 8 inches near NYC although some of that could be adding the late part of the system...the first image is the 36 hour forecast from the 00Z run and the 2nd this morning's 12Z...notice how the mix line is fairly far souh into CNJ, even at the coast. I'm not familliar with that map, is the orange supposed to represent snow or a mix of some sort? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 GFS has the same backend moving through like the NAM. The surface is warm but all other levels are below freezing. Some areas could pick up another sloppy 1-3". So 2-4" total accumulations likely, a very sloppy mess with rain falling on wet snow and then a freeze as surface temps drop below freezing by evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 The GFS has shown such poor run to run continuity that i'm inclined to toss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 GFS has the same backend moving through like the NAM. The surface is warm but all other levels are below freezing. Some areas could pick up another sloppy 1-3". So 2-4" total accumulations likely, a very sloppy mess with rain falling on wet snow and then a freeze as surface temps drop below freezing by evening. Even all the way up into Orange County and points north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 The GFS has shown such poor run to run continuity that i'm inclined to toss it. Last nights GGEM hinted at this bringing the Fz line 50 miles north of nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 mentioned a few days ago that SNE would do quite well with this one - models starting to reflect that. Ill take the 1-2/2-4 in the city tonight before the changeover - if storm would have been more of a tomorrow timing, would have gone out n/w of 287 where I think they can see 3-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 mentioned a few days ago that SNE would do quite well with this one - models starting to reflect that. Ill take the 1-2/2-4 in the city tonight before the changeover - if storm would have been more of a tomorrow timing, would have gone out n/w of 287 where I think they can see 3-6 Well if theres a changeover which seems likely then any front end accumulation would melt away especially if it's only 1-2" and you have to hope the backend works out. In the end there may be 1-2" on the ground even though something like 4" could've fallen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 12z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Still a decent storm for those of us North of rockland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Still a decent storm for those of us North of rockland I would even say from Northern Westchester up N, NE and NW it looks decent! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I feel a bust is coming as the warming is quite substantial and it takes too long for the storm to bomb out. The mid levels are quite warm on the gfs and the surface isn't good either. We are under an advisory for 2-4" which may verify if we get an inch before the changeover and an inch on the backend but it could just as well be an inch on the front only to melt away and we miss the backend. Let's hope the surface is warm because icing could be a problem yet again for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I would even say from Northern Westchester up N, NE and NW it looks decent! Especially higher elevations, I'm expecting if the euro follows to be upgraded to a Watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 RGEM totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 Potential ice storm warning criteria event on the 12z RGEM for Wilmington to Hartford corridor. For reference 15mm is about 0.60" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 The RAP is going nuts on the snow idea as well, at 08Z here is it's radar image...its ptype has snow all the way down by PHL and north of ACY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 This storm is already entering southwestern Virgina. Really fast moving system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 The RAP is going nuts on the snow idea as well, at 08Z here is it's radar image...its ptype has snow all the way down by PHL and north of ACY That is a very encouraging and aggressive radar echos... let's see how it goes but I like where things are heading here if you exclude the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 And the first advisories have been updgraded to warnings. I would suspect that this will be the norm today for much of the area URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA1023 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015.A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THE EAST COAST...BRINGING AN 8 TO 12 HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO THEAREA TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.PAZ026>028-034>036-049>053-056>059-063-240400-/O.UPG.KCTP.WW.Y.0007.150124T0000Z-150124T1800Z//O.NEW.KCTP.WS.W.0001.150124T0000Z-150124T1800Z/HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HUNTINGDON...MOUNT UNION...LEWISTOWN...MIFFLINTOWN...BEDFORD...MCCONNELLSBURG...CHAMBERSBURG...LEWISBURG...SELINSGROVE...DANVILLE...SUNBURY...SHAMOKIN...BLOOMSBURG...BERWICK...NEWPORT...HARRISBURG...HERSHEY...POTTSVILLE...LEBANON...CARLISLE1023 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PMEST SATURDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THISEVENING TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOLONGER IN EFFECT.* LOCATIONS...THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLEAND LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY...AND WESTERN POCONO MOUNTAINS.* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW.* TIMING...SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE SNOWWILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATESATURDAY MORNING. THE SNOW COULD POTENTIALLY MIX WITH LIGHT RAINOR FREEZING RAIN SATURDAY MORNING FROM AROUND THE HARRISBURGAND LEBANON AREA...SOUTH AND EASTWARD.* IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY TONIGHTINTO EARLY SATURDAY.* WINDS...EAST 5 TO 10 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...DANGEROUS WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.USE EXTREME CAUTION IF TRAVELING. FOR THE LATEST WEATHERINFORMATION...GO TO WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE OR MONITOR NOAAWEATHER RADIO.REPORT SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICESTATE COLLEGE BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO [email protected]...POSTING TO THE NWS STATE COLLEGE FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET@NWSSTATECOLLEGE WITH THE HASHTAG C...T...P...W...X. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycemt123 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Still a decent storm for those of us North of rocklandWhat about those of us IN Rockland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 What about those of us IN Rockland? Recent runs show some mixing issues even into extreme southern orange, it's gonna be a nowcast as you guys may be the battle line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGod Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Good to see, the RAP was pretty accurate last year correct? The RAP is going nuts on the snow idea as well, at 08Z here is it's radar image...its ptype has snow all the way down by PHL and north of ACY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycemt123 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Recent runs show some mixing issues even into extreme southern orange, it's gonna be a nowcast as you guys may be the battle lineWell then, in that case I'll stick to my guns and await the enemy of rain and sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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