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Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2


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  • 2 weeks later...

CLE finished October -1.2, with 3.34" of precip. It has been awhile since we've had mostly bare trees on Halloween. Temps on the lake are unusually uniform across the western and central basins with low 50's out west, and mid 50's in the central basin. Temps in the west have actually increased a bit with the recent warmth. Good to have a "warm" lake until the pattern flips. 

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55 minutes ago, NEOH said:

CLE finished October -1.2, with 3.34" of precip. It has been awhile since we've had mostly bare trees on Halloween. Temps on the lake are unusually uniform across the western and central basins with low 50's out west, and mid 50's in the central basin. Temps in the west have actually increased a bit with the recent warmth. Good to have a "warm" lake until the pattern flips. 

Great for the wineries on the lake!

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58 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

Great writeup by @OHweatherhttps://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/58383-some-thoughts-on-the-next-couple-months/

Looks like the possibility of some lake effect beginning next week. 

 

Awesome discussion. This warm weather has been great... but looking forward to the pattern change. Temps in the Western basin have risen 3-4 degrees since the last cold period. 

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It looks like a mediocre lake effect set-up Saturday night through Sunday, perhaps lingering into Sunday night. I could see some spots getting a few inches, but it may be more of a due west or slightly west-southwest flow that keeps things more confined to the I-90 corridor from Lake County points east. But, seems like a chilly couple of weeks so there may be more chances, and I'm still optimistic about December. 

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10 hours ago, OHweather said:

It looks like a mediocre lake effect set-up Saturday night through Sunday, perhaps lingering into Sunday night. I could see some spots getting a few inches, but it may be more of a due west or slightly west-southwest flow that keeps things more confined to the I-90 corridor from Lake County points east. But, seems like a chilly couple of weeks so there may be more chances, and I'm still optimistic about December. 

Doesn't look like an exciting LES event but it will be nice to see some flakes flying again. CMC is the most bullish at at this point. Hopefully we can get the wind direction a little more NW'erly. I've seen 2010-2011 thrown around as analog for the coming winter. That was an exceptional winter for the eastside... I'd gladly take 140" +

 

Snowcolor1011.png

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Soaker out there this morning. The dry ground has been great for fall clean ups but the rain is needed. Will be nice to see the snow flying this weekend. The ground is warm so it will be tough to see accumulations. 

Temps in the western basin are normally much cooler than the central basin this time of the year. Temps are fairly uniform in the low to mid 50's. It will be interesting to revisit in a week. 

 

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Definitely a taste of winter arriving this weekend and lingering through at least next weekend. A shot for some flakes Saturday afternoon as a shortwave brings some light precipitation to the area, though surface temperatures are marginal so probably no chance to stick, and this may simply be mainly rain along the lakeshore.

The lake effect set-up Saturday night into Sunday is interesting...a mix of pros and cons...there is briefly good synoptic support with a shortwave, surface trough, and increased moisture pushing across the lake and into the primary snowbelt overnight Saturday night into early Sunday. Expect good convergence near the shoreline from Cuyahoga County points east for several hours Saturday night into early Sunday. At the same time, instability is moderate to nearly extreme off the lake, per BUFKIT, with a very well-aligned flow out of the west-northwest and inversion heights climbing to close to 10k feet.

The profiles are too warm for a good fluffy snow, but expect precip off the lake to change to snow fairly quickly in the hills Saturday evening (if it even rains in the hills at all) and eventually change to mainly snow or graupel even close to the lake by Sunday morning with 850mb temps of -8 to -10C. Locations away from the lake should drop to near, or in the higher terrain just below, freezing Saturday night which will allow the snow to stick if it comes down steadily at all. Along the lakeshore probably stays in the mid to upper 30s, which will limit accumulations there a good bit. The set-up is short duration, with winds turning more solidly WNW into Sunday, likely causing any bands to lose some organization, especially by midday as air temperatures over land start warming up a bit and weaken any lingering convergence near the lakeshore. 

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356281787_NAMBUFKIT.thumb.png.60959b88ffaee11917f9fa6b626f295e.png

Pros: Decent synoptic support/moisture, good instability/decent inversion heights, shoreline convergence favoring focused bands, very little shear

Cons: Warm ground and marginal surface temperatures, especially near the lake but even inland initially, modest snow ratios, and fairly short duration with winds gradually shifting through the event

I think the winds go west-northwest enough that we can see a band develop and hug the Cuyahoga County lakeshore and push east into the eastern suburbs and a good portion of Geauga County, especially towards early Sunday. There's often another band or two that gets into eastern Ashtabula County and Erie County PA in this type of flow. If we do see bands develop in those locations, snow should be intense enough that it could accumulate up to a few inches in the hills, so it wouldn't 100% shock me if eventually an advisory is needed (I am off this weekend so this is not "inside knowledge", just me spit balling)...however, given the limiting factors, anything more than locally a few inches seems difficult, and even the few inches will depend on organized bands developing for at least a few hours. 

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With winds in the 280-290 range for a good period of time late tonight into Sunday morning and signs of good convergence from Cuyahoga into Geauga County, definitely would not surprise me if those in NEOH/dta land end up with a few inches of snow by some point Sunday morning. Pretty consistent signs on guidance that a fairly intense band will come in across Cuyahoga and Geauga later tonight...question is exactly how far north/south it sets up. The flow is quite well-aligned at 20-25 knots, which is pretty optimal for organized banding, with some synoptic moisture and lift from the shortwave going by. Instability still looks solidly moderate to nearly extreme, with EL heights of up to 10k feet at times. The limiting factors remain the fairly short duration, mild air/ground temperatures, and modest snow ratios, but a few dense inches of accumulation seems reasonable if a band sets up for any length of time given the other favorable factors. 

Some mood flakes ongoing right now here. 

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On one hand I’m surprised the band hung north for as long as it did, but on the other that happens often. Some 2-3” reports from Lake and northern Geauga looks like. It’s been snowing off and on pretty good the last couple of hours here, the ground is covered but it’s melting from below when it slows down…have had up to half an inch at any one time before it slows down and starts melting. Wasn’t sure if I’d get much of anything down here so I’ll take it. 

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Latest first freeze on record at Akron/Canton (see below). At Cleveland, it's one of only 12 years where there has not yet been a freeze. Although only three of those were at Hopkins International Airport (1946, 2016, 2022). Unless there's a midnight low in the cards, it looks like this will stretch at least another day - 2 of the 12 had their first freeze on the 14th, so it should be top ten at CLE. 

No. of days at or below 32 (through 11-13):

image.png.5b7a98497968dd848a12e41f5a2d08db.png

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Looks like a fairly brief window for LES Wednesday night into Thursday. Shame to waste this LES potential with a WSW wind flow ;). Hoping for better trend with the kicker shortwave in today's runs... 

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The first notable lake effect snow event of the season still appears on tap for Wednesday night through Thursday evening, but general
excitement for snow for this portion of the lake has diminished slightly over the last 24 hours. The kicker shortwave trough that
pushes the low pressure system east of the region on Wednesday evening has trended further south for Wednesday night and while a
deeper trough could help with temperature profiles across the region. The orientation of this feature will also help low level
flow stay more westerly or even just south of west vs. the just north of west flow expounded upon in yesterday`s forecast. This will
have great repercussions for the snowfall forecast of the period.


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1 hour ago, NEOH said:

Looks like a fairly brief window for LES Wednesday night into Thursday. Shame to waste this LES potential with a WSW wind flow ;). Hoping for better trend with the kicker shortwave in today's runs... 

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The first notable lake effect snow event of the season still appears on tap for Wednesday night through Thursday evening, but general
excitement for snow for this portion of the lake has diminished slightly over the last 24 hours. The kicker shortwave trough that
pushes the low pressure system east of the region on Wednesday evening has trended further south for Wednesday night and while a
deeper trough could help with temperature profiles across the region. The orientation of this feature will also help low level
flow stay more westerly or even just south of west vs. the just north of west flow expounded upon in yesterday`s forecast. This will
have great repercussions for the snowfall forecast of the period.


Trends have not been favorable the past few days.  Hoping for a last minute trend in our favor.  

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WWA issued by CLE - looks like the window for snow down this way is overnight into the early morning. Hopefully the band can make it this far south. 

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 PM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches expected in the most persistent lake effect snows,
with the highest accumulations in the northern half of the county. * WHERE...Geauga County

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It will be fascinating to watch how tonight plays out…I would not take the “over” on how far south the band briefly swings late tonight into early Thursday, but it could get as far south as eastern Cuyahoga and central/southern Geauga briefly early Thursday before breaking up a bit Thursday morning and shifting back northeast later in the day. 
 

The real interesting area will be closer to I-90, as the band looks to hug the lakeshore for several hours this evening into tonight while getting very intense. Despite the warm lake, that could bury parts of the I-90 corridor. It will be interesting to see what ratios are like and how well it accumulates despite the marginal temperatures, but the feeling is that the intensity will be enough to overcome any temperature issues. 

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On 11/14/2022 at 12:00 PM, TheClimateChanger said:

Latest first freeze on record at Akron/Canton (see below). At Cleveland, it's one of only 12 years where there has not yet been a freeze. Although only three of those were at Hopkins International Airport (1946, 2016, 2022). Unless there's a midnight low in the cards, it looks like this will stretch at least another day - 2 of the 12 had their first freeze on the 14th, so it should be top ten at CLE. 

No. of days at or below 32 (through 11-13):

image.png.5b7a98497968dd848a12e41f5a2d08db.png

Made it down to 31F at Akron/Canton yesterday (11/15), which is the latest freeze on record. The prior record was November 13, set in 1916, although there's some missing data from that year on days when it may have dropped to 32F or below - including no data on October 12, when lows on the surrounding days were 35 and 37 and there was a comment indicating a heavy frost; no data on October 26, when lows on the surrounding days were 36 and 33; and no data on November 12, when lows on the surrounding days were 34 and 28. Observations in 1916 were taken at the University of Akron.

The second latest on record (with no missing data) is November 12, 2016.

Still no freeze at CLE; however, that's not quite as rare there. One of eight years with no freeze as of 11/16, although 6 of those were 1932 or earlier when observations were taken on rooftops downtown. Not exactly ideal for radiational cooling. The only other year without a freeze by this point at Cleveland Hopkins International Airport was 2016.

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19 minutes ago, OHweather said:

It will be fascinating to watch how tonight plays out…I would not take the “over” on how far south the band briefly swings late tonight into early Thursday, but it could get as far south as eastern Cuyahoga and central/southern Geauga briefly early Thursday before breaking up a bit Thursday morning and shifting back northeast later in the day. 
 

The real interesting area will be closer to I-90, as the band looks to hug the lakeshore for several hours this evening into tonight while getting very intense. Despite the warm lake, that could bury parts of the I-90 corridor. It will be interesting to see what ratios are like and how well it accumulates despite the marginal temperatures, but the feeling is that the intensity will be enough to overcome any temperature issues. 

As the lake effect expert on this board what are your thoughts on this event further north near Buffalo? Trying to find the best location to ride this out in. Was thinking 2-3 miles south of the airport? Any chance at thundersnow?

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27 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

As the lake effect expert on this board what are your thoughts on this event further north near Buffalo? Trying to find the best location to ride this out in. Was thinking 2-3 miles south of the airport? Any chance at thundersnow?

It's certainly a stellar set-up as NWS BUF has been screaming about for several days now...a prolonged period Thursday evening through Saturday night with moisture depth of 10-15k feet on forecast soundings (especially through early Saturday morning), extreme instability with lake to 850mb differentials of 22-24C and lake to 700mb differentials of 30-32C, and equilibrium levels of 20-25k feet...all these values support very deep and intense lake effect off the east end of the lake with thunder. 

I'm pretty impressed at how steady and close to due southwest the flow is late Thursday night through early Saturday, which seems to be a fetch that favors the city and airport or just south (but not quite as far south as 2014), so the band will probably move little in that timeframe and dump on that general area. I think slightly south of the airport is a pretty good spot, but you have watched those bands closer than I have so you may have a slightly better judgement on where they go with a certain wind direction. Regardless, the amount of moisture, instability, lack of shear, and good lift shown in the snow growth zone supports 2-4" per hour snow rates in the band and if it moves very little for 24-30 hours someone can get 3 or 4 feet...we'll see if it wiggles just a bit and prevents such insane totals, though the flow looks pretty steady... 

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3 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Still no freeze at CLE; however, that's not quite as rare there. One of eight years with no freeze as of 11/16, although 6 of those were 1932 or earlier when observations were taken on rooftops downtown. Not exactly ideal for radiational cooling. The only other year without a freeze by this point at Cleveland Hopkins International Airport was 2016.

With a warm fall and warm lake its not surprising CLE has not hit freezing (looks like 33 was the lowest temp).  CLE is only 7 or so miles inland and temps are taken a few hundred feet from a runway -- not exactly ideal for radiational cooling. 

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